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Roles of computer in criminology
Advantages of predictive policing
Predictive policing case studies
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Predictive Policing: Smart or Scary?
I consider myself very lucky to have one of the most rewarding jobs in the world: I predict the future. I don’t have a crystal ball or hear spirits talking to me. Instead, I use data from crimes that have happened in the past, to try to determine when the offenders will strike again. It’s far from perfect, but the methods are effective. I chose to pursue a degree in Computer Science so that I can develop better analytical tools to assist me and others like me in our efforts to keep people safe. You may not have ever heard about a job like mine existing, but you may have heard about a controversial tool that many police departments across the world are using called “predictive policing”. I chose this topic as it is relevant to both my chosen career and major.
Since the development of modern police forces in the 1820s, administrators have been on a constant search for better ways of solving crimes and preventing new crimes from being committed. With the advent of affordable desktop computers in the 1980s, the field of crime analysis emerged to track patterns, trends and series of criminal activity using maps and math. Today, the technology exists to make predictions on future criminal activity based on historical, geographical and sociological data in a variety of ways that are all referred to as predictive policing. The term “predictive policing” can be a bit intimidating at first, as it inspires haunting visions of people being arrested for crimes that they have not yet committed, much like the concept of “precrime” established in Philip K. Dick’s Minority Report. In reality, a basic predictive policing system is created by the combination of several methods of analysis that have ...
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...ing is completed, and it is discovered that a new bar recently opened up within a quarter mile of the train station, and the police have responded multiple times for unruly patrons. The bar is found to have multiple health code violations and is closed, and the batteries at the train station immediately cease. This is an example of Risk Terrain Modeling, which considers the geographic makeup of an area to calculate the risk of future criminal acts (“Overview,” n.d., para. 2).
By combining hot spots, repeat victimization and Risk Terrain Modeling, predictive policing equips law enforcement agencies to better prevent future crimes from occurring. Predictive policing is not something to be feared, but embraced, as it uses tried and true analytical methods, increases the effectiveness of the police and makes the most efficient use of the public’s tax dollars.
According to Kelling, Pate, Dieckman, & Brown (1974), patrol is the “backbone” of police work. This belief is based around the premise that the mere presence of police officers on patrol prohibits criminal activity. Despite increasing budgets and the availability of more officers on the streets, crime rates still rose with the expanding metropolitan populations (Kelling et al., 1974). A one year experiment to determine the effectiveness of routine preventive patrol would be conducted, beginning on the first day of October 1972, and ending on the last day of September 1973.
The next model we will take a look at is the Crime Control model. It is based on co...
9. Sherman L., Gottfredson D., MacKenzie D., Eck J., Reuter P., Bushway S. Preventing Crime: What Works, What Doesn't, What's Promising. A Report to the United States Congress. College Park, MD: University of Maryland, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 1997.
For decades, researchers have tried to determine why crime rates are stronger and why different crimes occur more often in different locations. Certain crimes are more prevalent in urban areas for several reasons (Steven D. Levitt, 1998, 61). Population, ethnicity, and inequality all contribute to the more popular urban. Determining why certain crimes occur more often than others is important in Criminal Justice so researchers can find a trend and the police can find a solution (Rodrigo R. Soares, 2004, 851). The Uniform Crime Reports are a method in which the government collects data, and monitors criminal activity in the United States (Rodrigo R. Soares, 2004, 851). They have both positive and negative attributes that have influenced
Hot spot policing is based on the idea that some criminal activities occur in particular areas of a city. According to researchers crime is not spread around the city instead is concentrated in small places where half of the criminal activities occur (Braga chapter 12). Also, many studies has demonstrated that hot spots do show significant positive results suggesting that when police officers put their attention on small high crime geographic areas they can reduce criminal activities ( Braga, papachristo & hureau I press). According to researchers 50% of calls that 911 center received are usually concentrated in less than 5% of places in a city (Sherman, Gartin, & Buerger, 1989; Weisburd, Bushway, Lum, &Yang, 2004). That is the action of crime is often at the street and not neighborhood level. Thus police can target sizable proportion of citywide crime by focusing in on small number of high crime places (see Weisburd & Telep, 2010). In a meta-analysis of experimental studies, authors found significant benefits of the hot spots approach in treatment compared to control areas. They concluded that fairly strong evidence shows hot spots policing is an effective crime prevention strategy (Braga (007) .Importantly, there was little evidence to suggest that spatial displacement was a major concern in hot spots interventions. Crime did not simply shift from hot spots to nearby areas (see also Weisburd et al., 2006).
A, Braga & D, Weisburd. 'Police Innovation and Crime Prevention: Lessons Learned from Police Research over the Past 20 Years'. Paper presented at the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) Policing Research Workshop: Planning for the future, Washington, DC. 2006. p. 22.
Unfocused and indiscriminate enforcement actions will produce poor relationships between the police and community members residing in areas. Law enforcement should adopt alternative approaches to controlling problem areas, tracking hot persons, and preventing crime in problem regions. Arresting criminal offenders is the main police function and one of the most valuable tools in an array of responses to crime plagued areas, however hot spots policing programs infused with community and problem oriented policing procedures hold great promise in improving police and community relations in areas suffering from crime and disorder problems and developing a law enforcement service prepared to protect its nation from an act of
Walker, Jeffery T., Ronald G. Burns, Jeffrey Bumgarner, and Michele P. Bratina. "Federal Law Enforcement Careers: Laying the Groundwork." Journal of Criminal Justice 19.1 (2008): 110-135. Web. 20 Apr 2011.
The Uniform Crime Report also allows us to geographically see crimes spread over the United States. Where certain crimes are committed, who is committing them, and when they are most likely committed. These trends allow for federal and local law enforcement to predict where patrolling may need to be more prevalent or allow criminal profilers to be able to speculate what type of person is a possible suspect for a certa...
Problem-oriented policing presents an alternative approach to policing that has gained attention in recent years among many police agencies. Problem-oriented policing grew out of twenty years of research into police practices, and differs from traditional policing strategies in four significant ways.
The writer further contends Young’s noting the mathematical models was intentional, and designed to effectively illustrate his point of their ineffectiveness because they are difficult to absorb. Despite such difficulty, the writer contends Young did immediately create some useful insights. Foremost was the ideal of what Young metaphorically termed, the “datasauer also known as Empiricus Abstractus” (Young, 2011). What the writer noted was Young’s critique of modern criminology’s ineffective and improper overuse of empiricism to predict criminal behavior is a flawed concept due to variation fluctuations and data manipulation. The writer noted that Young (2011) used as evidence to demonstrate deficiencies the very thing he argues against in noting the level of explanatory power in multivariate models over-estimates prediction levels (p.
By approaching these ideas with solid research goals and planning, researchers have come up with two basic crime fighting strategies that can increase police effectiveness. The first strategy Community Policing, which addresses immedia...
Rutkin, Aviva. "Policing The Police." New Scientist 226.3023 (2015): 20-21. Academic Search Premier. Web. 17 Oct. 2016.
Oliver, W. (2006). The Fourth Era of Policing: Homeland Security. International Review of Law, Computers & Technology, 20(1/2), 49-62. Doi: 10.1080/13600860600579696
The use of technology in the policing domain has been rapidly adopted over the past few years. However, it should be noted that the process of adopting and effectively using technology in law enforcement, begun more than 50 years ago. For instance, it become apparent in the 1950’s that computer would enable easier storage and retrieval of large amounts of data. More recently, advancement in technology has incorporated more sophisticated ways of transmitting and analyzing information, therefore aiding the law enforcement process (Button, Sharples & Harper, 2007). The police have found various aspect of technology useful; predominantly, computer crime mapping has been widely adopted and consequently received a lot of attention (Goldstein & McEwen, 2009).