Heart Disease Policy Model

At this point it is understood that heart disease affects all races and is the main killer across the United States. What does the future hold for heart disease patients? How will costs be affected? Trends and projections have been followed and made for the future involving heart disease. A study by Heidenreich et al. (2011) reported that “the [presence] of cardiovascular disease will increase by about 10% over the next 20 years under current cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment trends assuming no change to current policy, whereas the direct costs will increase almost triple times.” Cardiovascular disease costs will be responsible for a major part of medical expenditures. Heidenreich et al. (2011) projected that “by 2030 more than

Heidenreich et al. (2011) used the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model to report that “the current adolescent overweight will increase future adult obesity by 5% to 15% by 2035.” This causes more cases of heart disease and costs will increase by $254 billion. (Heidenreich et al., 2011) How were these projections made? Estimations were made by current prevalence and individual costs by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. There were 32 cells based on age, sex, and race/ethnicity where cardiovascular prevalence was the same across the cells. Heidenreich et al. (2011) explained that they “generated projections of the total cardiovascular population and costs by multiplying present rates and average costs by the Census-projected population of each demographic cell.” These estimations only reflect population changes and not policy changes. Trends were followed from the 2008 Population Projections of the United States to build upon on what will happen in 2030. Heidenreich et al. (2011) believed that “cardiovascular disease will increase.” The elderly population will rapidly grow within the next few decades. It is because “people over 65 years of age have a higher prevalence for all cardiovascular disease…” that there will be millions more of people with some kind of heart disease. (heidenreich et al., 2011) Heidenreich et al. (2011) figured the “real total direct medical costs of cardiovascular disease are projected to triple from $272.5 billion to $818.1 billion.” What is the main factor that is making these costs rise? Heidenreich et al. (2011) said that “hypertension is the most expensive component of cardiovascular disease because it is the most prevalent of the risks.” The associated cost for hypertension will increase to $200.3 billion by the year 2030. (Heidenreich et al., 2011) By the year 2030 Heidenreich et al. (2011) projected that “total cost of cardiovascular