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Risk analysis method in investment decisions
Risk analysis case study
Risk analysis method in investment decisions
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Risk: The discovery of vehicle component defects that lead to expensive recall campaigns
Risk Description:
Recall campaigns are not infrequent occurrences; they happen all the time. Recall campaigns can range from products like batteries to very expensive automobiles. In fact, many do not understand how frequently vehicles are recalled; as of April of this year, U.S. automobile manufacturers recalled close to 15 million vehicles. (Naughton) Nonetheless, automotive recall campaigns tend to be the most costly, as automobile manufacturer outlays include replacement component costs, labor costs, and public relation costs. On a separate note, legal liability costs for those harmfully affected by vehicle defects are also quite costly, but it is
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In 2001, Ford recalled 13 million Firestone tires that were stock components on some of its larger vehicles for tire failures. The overall cost of the recall campaign was close to $3 billion, and included a delayed launch of a new vehicle and 50-percent drop in earnings per share. Even further, Ford was forced to temporarily shutdown two of its plants for two weeks and idle one of its plants to make more tires available. During that time, Ford’s CEO claimed he was “forced” to recall the tire, as its tire supplier—Bridgestone—refused to recall the component itself. However, Bridgestone refuted the allegation and blamed the poor design of Ford vehicles as the problem. (Jones) Ultimately, Ford cut off their partnership with Bridgestone. This instance only proves that both parties can be to blame, but the automobile manufacturer pays the upfront …show more content…
The cause of the recall is attributed to faulty airbag electronics. Ultimately, Ford stated that this particular campaign would cost the company roughly $500 million, lowering profit expectations for the year. (Backman) Ultimately, vehicle recalls, whether the fault of Ford or its suppliers, are major risks. Aside from being exorbitantly expensive, recalls campaigns are difficult to predict and measure future occurrences.
Risk Mapping: High Frequency, Medium Severity
In 2012, Ford conducted 24 recall campaigns encompassing close to 1.5 million of its vehicles. This may equate to about two recall announcements a month. Was this just a bad year? No, it is a trend. In 2013, Ford led 15 recall campaigns covering more than 1.2 million vehicles. (Naughton) By the end of 2014, Ford is predicted to have recalled just as many of its vehicles as previous years. Recall campaigns are frequent, especially for Ford, and its associated costs can range from several million to several billion. Thus, the risk of defective vehicle components, or parts, is high frequency-medium severity.
Management
Henry Ford’s development of the single and unchanging automobile model meant the possibility to concentrate upon a single cheap car for the masses. When The Ford Company began to make Model C for $900, Model F for a thousand, and Model B for two thousand, the profits began to drop more and more each year and progress was being made backwards. The Ford factory was taken control over by Henry who stopped the production of
In 1984, with costs reduced, Ford started to repurchase 30 million shares (about 10% of the company’s stock). It’s production of cars in Mexico increased and output was stepped up in South Korea. The following year Ford introduced the Taurus, a modern full-size automobile which had taken 5 years to develop at a cost of $3 billion. The Taurus proved highly successful and won several design awards.
The great carmaker himself witnessed none of this. He never set foot in the town that bore his name, yet his powerful, contradictory personality influenced every aspect of the project. As disaster after disaster struck, Ford continued to pour money into the project. Not one drop of latex from Fordlandia ever made it into a Ford car. But the more it failed, the more Ford justified the project in idealistic terms. "It increasingly was justified as a work of civilization, or as a sociological experiment," Grandin says. Despite the obstacles faced, Fordlandia did establish some brief success. The area had red fire hydrants on neat streets, running water, a sawmill, a water tower and weekly square dancing. However, the complexity of a jungle, changes in world economy and ongoing war entrenched Fordlandia’s failure as inevitable.
At the time that he started Ford Motors Company, most people did not drive cars, and hadn't even considered purchasing a car. Henry Ford is famously quoted saying, “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said ‘faster horses’”. His extremely successful Model T, nicknamed the Tin Lizzie, fundamentally changed the automotive industry. Ford understood that most of the American population was in the working class and could not afford to buy a car, so he decided to create a standardized vehicle for the masses. The Model T was durable, reliable, and most importantly, affordable. However, marketing strategies were crucial, since previously people hadn't even thought of buying a car. When Ford first introduced the Model T, he ensured that there was a great amount of publicity surrounding it in every newspaper possible to get the word out. Publicity is just as critical today if not more, and Ford understood that from very early
Two means of risk assessment taken by Mattel prior to the first recall have been identified.
Despite of these good things, Ford Motor faced a loss due to some wrong decisions taken by the management regarding their business strategy. The decision of centralizing the management made them think narrowly which results in too much Americanization and ignorance of local market in the rest of the world. This caused losing global market for them.
Ford and World Safety Leaders Work to Launch Intelligent Vehicles Quicker, More Affordable. Automotive Industries, 191(6), 26-27. Morningstar.com (2014, April 28). doi: http://financials.morningstar.com/competitors/industry-peer.action?t=F. NASDAQ.com Schoenberger, R. (2011, January 31). Turning around an American icon, how Ford went from losing more than $30 billion to posting big profits.
These issues led to Toyota losing much of its brand equity as a leader in safety. According to an article in Time Magazine from February 2010, the automaker didn't just have safety issues in 2009 that led to the recalls, there had been smaller recalls for similar issues nearly every year since 2002. Historically, Toyota has been an organization that can take problems, root out their cause and turn the solutions into advantages over competitors. In this case, Toyota's complete lack of crisis management led to a major loss for the company both in 2009-2010 sales but something more precious and long-term, brand equity.
Significant production and distribution network Toyota’s CCC21 strategy allows them to see a steady increase in their production and sales. As previously stated, in Fiscal Year 2012, the company produced and sold a combined total of 17.4 million vehicles worldwide. Their opportunities throughout their geographic locations (53 manufacturing locations within 28 countries and regions) in addition to their capabilities reach a plethora of customers (vehicles sold in more than 170 countries and regions), thus increasing their revenue. (Worldwide operations, 2016) Weaknesses Automotive recalls Toyota had a decline in sales from 2008 to 2011, and a portion of that reason was due to recalls.
...when the company focused on further improvements of its pickups and SUVs instead of focusing on innovations required by the changing demand. If the management had not been ignorant and would have developed sound strategy as soon as it spotted the change, the company would have avoided the crisis. However the company just recently adjusted its production plan and plans to continue realigning its manufacturing capacity, product mix and cut costs to fix the situation (“Ford Adjusts Production”).
Since the probe, General Motors had created a new post that is charged with responsibility for vehicle safety (Muller, 2013). General Motors terminated sixteen people for their role in not repairing the faulty ignition switch. The mindset throughout General Motors was to retain the bad news and keep it apart from senior supervisors. This was undeviatingly contributed to no effort being taken to remedy the faulty switch. Because of this, General Motors is directly accountable for the graves of 13
Cost reductions of $600 million and $1.1 billion through the first half of 2007. Automotive gross cash at June 30, 2007 was $37.4 billion. Ford Motor Company sales and revenue over the last three years has fluctuated tremendously, 2005 was 176.8 billion, 160.1 billion for the year of 2006 and 172.5 billion for 2007. The current return on investment is -10.4 as of 2007. Ford Motor Company current mission statement is “committed to providing personal mobility for people around the world”.
First, Ford Motor Company would have to estimate the overall effectiveness of the program. This would help determine how the program will affect the overall well-being of the company. According to Ford’s website, researchers have been working since 2002 to research and develop soy-based polyurethane foams which, if successfully created, would then replace the petroleum-based foams currently being used to manufacture car
Ford- focused differentiation, medium pricing, breadth of product line is high. A strength is their pick-up truck market share, a weakness is perceived reliability and styling on some of the lines.
Ford is forecasting that 2010 sales in industry will rise to between 11.5 million and 12.5 million vehicles, up considerably from last year’s 8.4 million. Boudette, and Dolan, 2010). Ford is about to launch its smaller vehicles; less than two years ago Ford Motor’s plant in Mexico was building big pick-up trucks. But Ford has retooled to produce Ford’s small Fiesta car, due to go on sale in America for the first time in June. Simon, 2010).Mulally is the architect of Ford’s remarkable recovery in its fortunes.