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Risk Analysis on Investment Decision
In the Capital budgeting simulation conducted for Silicon Arts Inc. my job as a the Financial Analyst is to analyze the two proposals and come to a decision that meets the goals of the company to increase its market share and to keep pace with technology. In order for Silicon Arts Inc to achieve this we need to decide on either increasing their market shares in the Digital Imaging market or enter the Wireless Communications market.
In markets that constantly change in technologies Silicon Arts Inc. needs to consider this in making its decision. Though the Global Digital Imaging semiconductor market forecasts for a growth of 20% in the 1st year and demand to grow 7% between years 2-4, one has to consider that new technology will replace the old technology by the end of year 5. The overall growth is great for the industry but another factor that will affect Silicon Arts sales volume is the rumor that one of their major competitors is introducing a cheaper similar product in early year 1. I feel this will make a major impact. As mentioned before, technology is always changing and products are being introduced everyday and getting cheaper every time, for example portable CD players was very popular when it was first introduced, as time passed a new product the mp3 player ultimately replaced the portable CD player. Silicon Arts can use the sensitivity analysis to examine how sensitive the Net Present Value is to changes in basic assumptions (Ross, Westerfield, & Jaffe, 2005,Chapter 8). In the simulation I was able to see how sensitive these changes were to revenues by changing the volume of sales, increasing or decreasing the percentage of price per unit and the increasing or decreasing of the percentage of marketing costs. In the second cycle of the simulation I needed to analyze the Capital Expenditures for the two proposals.
The land that Silicon Arts Inc purchased years back could have been put to better use since it was not being productive. This land I would consider as an opportunity cost. Though they didn’t take advantage of leasing the land prior to making the decision to build on it, the opportunity to increase cash flow during that period of time was lost. The cost that was incurred in market research would be considered a sunk cost because I chose for Silicon Arts to purchase Gus Longman’s company.
In order to find out what are some of the key drivers’ of the analysis I will further run different sensitivity analysis. I think some of the key drivers of our assumptions could be sales growth, production costs as a percentage of sales, inventories as a percentage of cost of goods sold etc.
Star Appliance is looking to expand their product line and is considering three different projects: dishwashers, garbage disposals, and trash compactors. We want to determine which project would be worth doing by determining if they will add value to Star. Thus, the project(s) that will add the most value to Star Appliance will be worth pursuing. The current hurdle rate of 10% should be re-evaluated by finding the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Then by forecasting the cash flows of each project and discounting them by the WACC to find the net present value, or by solving for the internal rate of return, we should be able to see which projects Star should undertake.
Cisco faces intense competition in the networking and communications equipment markets (Cisco Systems Inc. SWOT Analysis, 2013).Cisco also faces price competition from rival competitors in Asia, mainly in China. The company also faces competition from customers to which it licenses or supplies technology. The nature of networking requires partnerships; the company must cooperate and at the same time compete with many companies to achieve its objectives. The inability to effectively manage these complicated relationships with customers, suppliers, and strategic alliance partners may have an adverse effect on Cisco’s business. Intense competition will continue to impact Cisco’s operating results, financial condition and market shares of the company in the future (Cisco Systems, Inc. SWOT Analysis, 2013).
PC manufacturers who limit their inventory to reduce the impact of price fluctuations are at a cost disadvantage by failing to reduce costs through economies of scale in purchasing components. Therefore PC manufacturers face high risk when stocking components and essentially loose out on profitability due to changes in technology.
2. Given the forecasts provided in the case, estimate the expected incremental free cash flows associated with Du Pont’s growth strategy and maintain strategy for the TiO2 market. How much risk and uncertainty surround these future cash flows? Which strategy looks most attractive (i.e., using the DCF (e.g., NPV) method)??
Therefore, the organization should take a strategic growth-oriented and reverse type combine. On the one hand, the use of outsourcing and vendor competition to reduce costs in order to compensate for management and manufacturing inefficiencies, pay attention to controlling costs; On the other hand, combined with the advantages of their own technology, innovation, branding and marketing and other aspects of the product 's high school three grades are low pile of competitive products, consumer electronics growth to seize the opportunity to obtain efficient growth performance, and further expand market
The present risk assessment work emerged from my interest in the BRIC countries and the fact that they represent a big part of the world’s economic potential. In the following analysis I will focus on the main economic, political and financial risks in Russia.
Hammond Cards, Inc. is a small player of the greeting cards industry in the United States of America due to the fact that their annual revenues equate to less than 1% of the industry leaders as described in the case. In their effort to stimulate growth, however, Wendy Hammond has employed me to analyze the potential acquisition of another company, Creative Designs. My analysis will firstly look at the main issue behind this acquisition and then further break it down into sub-issues that I will address individually. Since both of these companies follow a different strategy I will evaluate the two different companies and discuss the implications of their strategies on the merger. I will then perform various cost analysis to determine the cost structures of the two firms which will help me identify whether Wendy’s intentions can be carried out. In my analysis I will aim to figure out the practical capacity of the firms and get an indication on whether their current operations are using the optimal level of capacity and minimizing waste. This data will help me with my strategic recommendation of acquiring Creative Designs and fitting it in with the current strategy of Hammond C...
While analyzing the data for The Body Shop International case, I noticed some trends and have compiled my assumptions for the next three years. I have compiled pro-forma statements for the fiscal years 2002, 2003 & 2004. These figures are based on the percentage of sales method for pro-forma financial modeling. Simply put, I used the sales figures from the past three years 1999, 2000 & 2001 and applied a growth rate of 13% increase to sales. Below are some additional assumptions that I have created to illustrate how the firm can become profitable while increasing market share and maintaining stockholder interest within the firm over the next three years.
The 3 percent decline in sales causing a 21 percent decline in profits can be attributed to the identification of the accounting concept of operating leverage. Operating leverage is what business managers apply to boost small changes in revenue into sizable changes in profitability. Fixed cost is the force managers use to attain disproportionate changes between revenue and profitability. Therefore, when all costs are fixed every sales dollar contributes one dollar toward the potential profitability of a project. Once sales dollars cover fixed costs, each additional sales dollar represents pure profit. A small change in sales volume can significantly affect profitability (Edmonds, Tsay, & Olds, 2011). So, therefore, if sales volume increases,
3. Analyze BP using the five forces of competition model to determine the industries current attractiveness in terms of profits potential
Risk taking has been a topic of great importance because it plays a role in determining how people view themselves and their lives. Researchers have concentrated on how different types of risk taking such as health risk or recreational risk can be strongly correlated with specific behavior such as the Five Factor Model personality traits. The concept of risk taking tendency has significant connections for the theoretical modeling of risk behavior, which will provide efficient insight behind individuals reasoning for risky behaviors (Nicholson, Soane, Fenton- O’Creevy, & Willman, 2005).
This paper will reflect on the different uses of Project Risk Management and ways in which it can benefit organizations to have the ability to identify potential problems prior to the problem occurring. Risk, this is not something to be taken lightly whilst dealing with matters that include high end projects meeting specific details, deadlines and expectations for the end client. Project risk management teaches one to be aggressive early on in the phases of planning and implementing the tools for a project. This is usually easier as costs are less and the turnaround time to solve the issues at that present moment is beneficial rather than later. The result in a successful project for one’s self and other key people involved in the process is also another requirement. Stakeholder satisfaction is important because the
Activity-based costing (ABC) is a costing method that is designed to provide managers with cost information for strategic and other decisions that potentially affect capacity and therefore “fixed” as well as variable costs. Activity-based costing is mostly used for internal decision making and managing activities while traditional costing method is used to provide data for external financial reports. Most organization uses activity-based costing as an addition system for using traditional absorption costing as sometimes the traditional cost system misleads the product’s profitability. In a company, there are many products on sale, if one product is sold at a high price with low product margin and a product with high product margin at a low price, it may result in a loss. In addition, due to the reason that cost drivers and enterprises business may change, activity-based costing analysis also needs to be revised periodically. This amendment should be prompted to change pricing, product, customer focus and market share strategy to improve corporate profitability.
One must look at the economic environment and how it will affect the launch of the product. One must look at: