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Introduction on gambling
Introduction on gambling
Introduction on gambling
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Taking Chances Have you ever had your eye on the last piece of chocolate cake, but noticed your friend did also, or wanted to sit in the front seat, but was faced by your little brother or sister putting up a fight? At one point or another, everyone has found themselves in some form of disagreement or misunderstanding that has been solved with an easy solution, a coin toss. But how do you decide which side of the coin to chose? With that slice of cake calling your name, it would be quite helpful to know if the coin were biased to land on a particular side before you made your decision. One may not overthink the choice, since it is a common belief that there is a 50/50 chance when it comes to flipping a coin, however, this old adage may in fact be a decades old misconception. A group of graduate students from Stanford decided that they would address this problem not with logic, but with science, and conducted over 1,000 coin tosses to see what they could find. What are the Chances? So begs the question, if you were to flip a coin, by hand, 100 times, does this mean that it would he...
Sense Perception is a way of knowing in which a person can acquire knowledge using their five senses - taste, touch, sight, sound and smell. Sense perception is an important in our understanding of the world, and is a source of much of the pleasure in our lives. But, can we trust our senses to give us the truth? This may come out as an odd question to many because according to experience and history it is known that humans greatly rely on sense perception as a means of survival. However, like all ways of knowing, sense perception has its weakness; our senses can easily be deceived. In his TED Talk, “Are we in control of our decisions?” behavioral economist Dan Ariely uses examples and optical illusions to demonstrate the roles, strengths and limitations of sense perception as a way of knowing.
the biases of the one who observes it. You can then draw a similar parallel to
In this paper I will be discussing Pascal’s Wager. What I first plan to do in this paper is explain the argument of Pascal’s Wager. Next I will explain how Pascal tries to convince non-theists why they should believe in God. I will then explain two criticisms in response to Pascal’s argument. Finally, I will discuss whether or not these criticisms show Pascal’s reasoning to be untenable.
In the course of writing this paper I learned about the way the human mind can be manipulated by very simple things, and when it is discovered it is often too late. There are smart gamblers who do win, but the majority don’t think and wind up spending incredible amounts of money.
Chance. 50/50. 1:2. Odds. These terms are familiar in gambling. Bet it all give it a shot. Is it worth the consequences? Are the problems worth the rewards? Imagine a gamble between life and death, war and peace. Would it be worth the destruction to have your way? What would you do to keep a competitor out of the game? Going neck and neck to find a way around combat. Would the world be the same? What would happen if you lost? When tension between World War II grows, a gamble for nuclear arms rises, becoming the cold war.
If fine-tuning is to provide evidence for the intelligent design of the universe, it seems that arguments based in probabilistic reasoning are not the most tenable due to the many objections raised throughout this essay. While fine-tuning may very well serve as evidence for intelligent design, the proponents of such a view must either form a novel argument that does not rely on probability theory as the current Fine-Tuning Argument has or find a way to resolve the probabilistic paradoxes that the current argument has been plagued with.
Comparing "Constantly Risking Absurdity," by Lawrence Ferlinghetti and "Betting on the Muse," by Charles Bukowski
The proof for the existence of God is an issue that may never be resolved. It has caused division among families and friends, nations and society. The answer to the question “does God exist?” is almost an impossible one to give with certainty seeing that there is a variety of people, ideas, cultures and beliefs. So how does one know if one’s actions here on earth could have eternal consequences? What is, if any, a “safe bet” to make? Blaise Pascal was a 15th century philosopher and a mathematician who proposed the idea that although one cannot know for certain that God exists, one can make a “safe bet” that it is far better to believe in God than not to believe in God. This is not a proof for the existence of God but rather an idea that suggest that if there is a God, it is in the person’s benefit to believe rather to disbelieve because the odds are in favor of the believer. This gambler-like idea is better known as “Pascal’s Wager” or “The Gambler’s Argument.” Nevertheless, this sort of play-the-ponies idea is not quite precise. Although Pascal’s Wager serves as a stepping-stone for non-believers, it is a rather vague, faithless and inaccurate argument.
The Zundel vs. Citron case explains bias as, “a state of mind that is in some way predisposed to a particular result or that is closed with regard to particular issues,” (Zundel vs. Citron). Due to the importance that bias can play in a decision, the courts have created a legal test to determine if it exists in any given situation. The test is, “what would an informed person, viewing the matter realistically and practically – and having thought the matter through –
Many theories of logic use mathematical terms to show how premises lead to conclusions. The Bayesian confirmation theory relates directly to probability. When applying this theory, a logician must know the probability of a given situation, have a conditional rule, and then he or she must apply the probability when the conditional rule is applied. This theory is used to determine an outcome based on a given condition. The probability of a given situation is x, when y occurs, or the probability is z if it does not occur. If y occurs, then the outcome of the given would be x. For example, if there is a high probability that a storm will occur if a given temperature drops and there is no temperature change, then it will most likely not rain because the temperature did not change (Strevens, 2012). By using observational data such as weather patterns, a person can arrive at a logical prediction or conclusion that will most likely come true based...
Modern debates over religion, more specifically God, focus primarily on whether or not sufficient evidence exists to either prove or disprove the existence of a God. Disbelievers such as biologist Richard Hawkins tend to point to the indisputable facts of evolution and the abundance of scientific evidence which seem to contradict many aspects of religion. Conversely, believers such as Dr. A. E. Wilder-Smith describe the controversial aspects of science, and how the only possible solution to everything is a supreme being. However, mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal refused to make either type of argument; he believed that it was impossible to determine God’s existence for certainty through reason. Instead, he suggested that rational individuals should wager as though God does indeed exist, because doing so offers these individuals everything to gain, and nothing to lose. Unfortunately, Pascal’s Wager contains numerous fallacies, and in-depth analysis of each one of his arguments proves that Pascal’s Wager is incorrect.
Gambling has been around since 2300 B.C. It has its positive and negative effects; it also has somewhat of a positive impact on the economy. It stimulates most communities by creating jobs and generates tax revenue for state and local governments. The gambling industry in “2002 and the commercial casino industry provided 350,000 jobs in the United States” (americangaming.org). Even though gambling can bring a lot of economic growth to the economy there is still an argument going on today whether it is a great choice to legalize it everywhere.
The article addresses the issue of being successful in a highly uncertain business environment. Some managers prefer to play it safe by adopting a wait-and-see strategy while others may invest in flexibility that allows their companies to adapt quickly as the market evolves. The companies sometimes neglect the fact that having a successful strategy depends on several factors, including their industry position, assets, or their willingness to take a risk in investing in such strategies. The paper introduced some of the tips and terminologies that could help managers facing uncertainty decide on whether to play safe or bet big. The traditional practice is to put a vision of predicted future events
“Although tragedy and loss are regrettable commonplace, we aren’t measured by what happens to us but rather by how we respond to it” written by Steve Pemberton in A Chance in the World. This is my favorite quote from the novel. A Chance in the World was an eye opening book for me to read, and I enjoyed every minute of it. Many things stood out to me in the book, one being that each chapter would start with a quote from a different book, and that related back to how much books saved his life. Another thing that stood out to me was how throughout the chapter he would ask himself questions, and those questions were never answered but it was like he was sharing his thoughts with reader. The reason these book was eye opening was because my father, gave up his parental rights at age five because of drugs, and even though our situations are only slightly similar hearing his story and how he overcame all his struggles made me realize how I can get over my own problems with the past. The novel was a tear jerker from reading how the Robinsons abused him, how he first struggled with college and how each side of his family had so much pain and sorrow. Steve Pemberton overcame every
Probability is always surrounding us from stock markets to the ever-simple heads or tails. This very complicated area of mathematics can be explained in a simpler way. It is how likely an event is to happen. The probability of an event will always be between 0 and 1. The closer it is to one, the more likely the event is to happen.