With the presidential election drawing closer, you may be deciding to vote for your preferred candidate based on whether the economy is good or bad. However, analyzing data spanning the 6 presidential elections under the fourth republic shows that there is no significant relationship between the growth of the election year economy and the winner of presidential elections. Thus, the trend do not exhibit any correlation between the prior growth of the economy and electoral wins.
For most economist, the single most predictor of the next government is the growth of the economy, measured by the GDP. For example and more precisely, the real GDP growth of the economy in an election year relative to the prior year is a good indicator of voter sentiments.
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It provides a holistic picture of the economic activity in the country. However, even if, for example, employment statistics are readily available, it would only tell us what proportion of people have jobs. They don’t tell us what percentage of those with jobs are paid too little to afford a decent standard of living.
Using a simple and conventional approach (devoid of any econometric or statistical specification), and average real GDP data over 24years thus beginning 1992 where incumbents are elected through a general election, I analyze the changes in the country’s real GDP growth in election year and the year before.
Year Real GDP Growth Rate Change between election year GDP growth and prior year Did the election-year party
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Again, these results must be seen as informative and telltale, not conclusive. It only advances to the debate about the nature of electoral judgements and choices in the country. The community and ethnic based interest politics coupled with high illiteracy have left little room for the electorate to evaluate parties on issues about the economy. It will be interesting to see how election year fiscal adjustments such as increased government spending, tax reductions, etc. as well as the rate of growth of the economy a few quarters before elections influences electoral
A key to victory this November is the unemployment rate. According to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted in March 8-11, 42% of Americans consider unemployment and jobs as “the most important issue facing the country right now” (Priorities). Although there has been 24 consecutive months of private sector employment growth, the Federal Reserve suggests that the numbers could fade in the coming months. The importance of creating more jobs cannot be stressed enough. No President in the recent era has been reelected with the unemployment rate above 7.2% (Roth). To paint a picture, in late 1982, the unemployment rate topped 10.8 under Ronald Reagan. However, about 36 months later, the rate dropped to 7.2% percent. The drastic drop in the n...
In this essay, I will explain why Texas should retain the partisan election of judges. Texas is one of the few states that elect their judges using a Partisan voting method. Partisan elections can be unfair and can misinform the voter. A high legal position such as a judge should never be chosen in such a manner. Partisan elections often cost more than nonpartisan elections in campaigning. Partisan elections are also more likely to lead to straight ticket voting or mindless voting. Partisan elections also lead to more campaign contributions and can increase the power of constituencies. Lastly partisan elections can cause an imbalance in equal represent the population. Therefore, Partisanship voting does not belong in the courts of Texas and
I noticed that when one political party covers almost the entirely of the map, their party will continue winning the election for several years. Like how the election of 1932, the democratic party had about 88% of the electors votes and about 60% of the popular votes. The democratic party continued to win the next four elections.
Pammett, J., & LeDuc, L. (2003). Explaining turnout decline in Canadian federal elections: A survey of non-voters. Elections Canada, 40.
Empirical literature examining the determinants of inflation has mostly viewed it as a monetary phenomenon. This viewpoint basically stems from Milton Friedman’s famous dictum that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. However, the conjecture of Friedman has recently come under attack. In fact, there appears to be virtually no correlation between money growth and inflation since the early 1980s. This leads to evolution of the argument known as Fiscal Theory of Price Level (FTPL). To capture the nonmonetary aspects of inflation, a number of economists investigate the main political, institutional and economic determinants of inflation across countries and over time. For instance, Aisen and Veiga (2006) conclude that political instability leads to higher inflation. Their study reveals that an additional government crises and a cabinet change which are used as proxy for measuring political instability raise inflation rate by 16.1% and 9.1% respectively. In another study, Aisen and Veiga (2008) extend their work to further analyze the effect of political instability, social polarization and the quality of institutions on inflation volatility. They argue that politically unstable and socially polarized countries with weak institutions are more exposed to political shocks that result in discontinuous monetary and fiscal policies which in turn result in higher inflation volatility. The intuition is that rising inflation instability creates frictions on market which reduces economic efficiency and causes the prevailing price in the economy to deviate from the price which would otherwise have been determined in presence of stable price level. They also provide evidence that greater independence of the Central Bank leads...
The Election of 1800 occurred between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson; both strong, influential individuals during the 18th and 19th century. The Election of 1800 transpired as the Revolution of 1800 due to several changes in once lasting concepts and ideas. Few concepts from past presidencies remained such as politics and economics; this change signified revolution. Even though foreign policy and neutrality remained the same , the election influenced several changes in politics, judiciary, and economics because of the result of the election , the Marbury vs Madison case, and the embargo act of 1807.
The fluctuations of economic growth are known as the business cycle. The GDP is a useful indication and measurement of the fluctuations of economic contractions. The measurement of GDP can be approached from three angles: value added by industry, final expenditures, and factor incomes (2008). The first angle measures the value added created by industry; the output less and inputs purchased from other producers. The second angle measures expenditures by consumers, businesses on investment goods, government on services and goods, and foreigners for exports; minus expenditures by domestic residents on imports. The last angle measures incomes generated in production, operating surplus generated by business and compensation of employees (2008). The GDP does not remai...
A trend analysis of the unemployment rates, inflation, nominal GDP, and real GDP were tabulated and graphed as shown below. From the graphs, it is evident that inflation and unemployment rates have a non-deterministic curve and fluctuate over time. The progression occurs because inflation and unemployment can be caused by many other factors apart from the economic growth (Mankiw 58). For instance, changes in international market prices, advancements in technology, and the use of different methods of production.
The economy works in a bunch of strange ways. Changing all the time. This is because of leading and lagging indicators. Indicators can control the economy progresses or get worse. Leading indicators, defined as a change prior to economic adjustments and, as such, can be used to predict future trends. This would include stock market, inventory levels, and the housing market. Lagging Indicators reflect the economy’s historical performance and changed to these are only identifiable after and economic trend or pattern has already been established. The government has an interesting way of using these indicators to their advantage, helping the economy so it doesn’t grow too fast or grow too slowly. This helps the economy so we don’t fall so far that it will be hard to get back up. We did this once during the great depression when there was no money in the economy, businesses were shutting down which left the government to pay the businesses to keep it open. Which, of course, put us into a debt. Us, as american citizens are “asked” to pay that debt off through our consumer spending and paying taxes. Are we on our way towards this? I do not believe so. In this essay, I will show you the reasons I believe that the economy is getting better through 2 leading indicators and 1 lagging indicator.
which is an electoral system in which parties gain seats in proportion to the number of
The United States presidential election of 2012 was the 57th presidential election. The election was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. The Democratic political leader was the incumbent President Barack Obama, and his candidate was vice President Joe Biden. Throughout this election the proportion of eligible voters who cast ballots shows that the rate was lower than in the past two presidential elections. Voter turnout decreased from 62.3 percent of eligible citizens voting in 2008 to an estimated 57.5 in 2012. The above calculation was also below the 60.4 percent in 2004 election, however above the 54.2 percent turnout in the 2000 election. Despite a rise of over eight million voters within the fitted population, turnout dropped from 131 million voters in 2008 to an estimated 126 million voters in 2012. When all ballots were computed, some 93 million eligible voters didn’t vote. There must be some contributing factors to see why there's a decline in voters’ turnout.
Not a day goes past that without hearing about the presidential candidates. The local polls, debates, drama, and the daily attacks people in the political parties. I hear this information whether I want too or not. One can always be up to date when it comes to the upcoming election either on the television news, or radio, and reading about it in the daily newspaper. And the presidential election seems to be what everyone is talking about or using social media to express their own personal sides. Why wouldn’t it be? It’s not like every year we get a new commander and chief. The presidential election is something that Americans looks forward to every four years. People across our nation get to vote and be part of our great democracy in the
Without labor market opportunities the number of jobs from low to high skills, and wages may not be available making it more difficult for one to fill their American dream.
There are many steps in running for president. Running for president is said to be one of the longest campaigns. Running for President consists of mainly two different parties and which consist of: the presidential primary campaign and the general electoral campaign that follow the party’s national convention. Generally both campaigns take place within the first 10 months of the election year. The primary campaign was mainly used for opening the nomination process to ordinary party members and to delay and postpone the influence of party bosses. During this time there is a process where the candidates go through a “beauty contest” where they are competing for popular votes; however the “popular” votes do not have
Political conditions in the Philippines can be classified as chaotic. On average over the last ten years, the Philippine economy has increas...