Polling is known for its ways of letting certain audiences give their opinion on different subjects. The poll could be something as simple as “What’s your favorite color?” or “In your opinion, which band is better?”, but polling is also used in more complex situations; take the presidential election for example, the public poll gives American adults the chance to vote a certain individual into office and run our country. Public polling was first introduce by George Gallup who was a professor at the University of Iowa. After giving up his profession of teaching, Gallup went on to create two of his very own, and very successful polling companies; The American Institute of Public Opinion and Gallup. Gallup is considered to be one of the top polling …show more content…
They gave questions that consisted of asking how often the samples vote or how much attention their samples actually give to the election. Also included in their voting, Gallup had suggested that most of their voters were in favor of Mitt Romney. However, this has been deemed invalid. Gallup, who used a state-by-state polling method, had given a greater amount of their attention to the Republican states due to “different time zones”. Therefore, a lot more Republican states were counted in their voting than Democratic states. Frank Newport, the Editor and Chief of Gallup gave this statement, “None of these factors are large, in and of themselves, in the sense that they are not moving the numbers 10 points, 5 points.” However, each of the four nudged Gallup’s numbers slightly in Romney’s favor, making them collectively “significant enough,” that we think they made a significant difference in our overall estimate of who was going to win the presidential election last fall”. This seems like Gallup was okay putting out false information to the public. After this issue of likely voters, the “top” polling company knew that they needed to reexamine some of their methods; but who’s to say that something like this won’t happen again under their …show more content…
Most of the well-known national polling firms have used a constant method where they would select phone numbers to call by using a random digit dialer. In 2011, Gallup switched to using a residential phone number dictionary. By switching to this landline method, it was promised to cut the cost of the calling samples by eliminating nonworking numbers; but of course there was some complication that needed to be dealt with. Not everyone who was listed in the phonebook had an available landline to call; causing Gallup to lose their samples. Since then, the polling firm has been in the process of switching back to their original method for calling voters, according to Frank Newton. “Although in theory the use of the landline listed sample made sense ... it probably was a contributing factor to a skew of the sample that we felt was inappropriate, and therefore, we’re making that change,” he
He developed methods for perfecting the selection of sample populations through scientific means, interviewing techniques and the formulation of questions. His work in public opinion and election forecasting began in an advertising firm known as Young & Rubicam in New York. In that company, he developed different methods such as the impact method, which helped see the impact of television and print advertisements. In 1935, he began his own polling company, the American Institute of Public Opinion. He did not gain national recognition until 1936 when he correctly predicted the U.S. presidency to Franklin Roosevelt instead of Alfred Landon, who was predicted by The Literary Digest. His polling topics were typically concerned with the public views on reform in topics such as education, criminal justice system and in
In the wake of the 2016 general election, Michael Lind published a piece on The Smart Set entitled: Can Electoral Reform Save America? This piece centered around a single question on the ballot of a single state, question 5 in Maine, and the impact on electoral reform it could have for the country according to Lind. Using deconstruction, Lind analyzes the idea of a Ranked Choice polling system, rather than the first-past-the-post system that is currently in place in the United States. His allusions to the past as well as separate government entities globally, as well as a deconstruction of both polling systems and the impact they have (or could have) allows the reader to absorb information and produce their own personal opinion.
In America, voting for the President is a privilege and a lie. Many Americans think when they go to the polls in November, they are voting for the President of the United States; but really, they are voting for a group of electors who have pledged to support a nominee for the President. The Founding Fathers were concerned that presidents would always come from a populous state and wondered whether the public would have the knowledge of various candidates necessary to make a wise selection. They did not have access to technology like the internet or smart phones as we do. In most states, as the result of the election, the state awards all its electors to the winning candidate (Belenky 1308). A Presidential a candidate must win 270 Electoral
This method will have a more accurate stance on how the American society perceives Homeland security issues.Reasoning being because we are a very diverse country with many minorities groups and this will allow the poll to have representation from a variety of people on this topic. In conclusion this sampling method is better than the other ones for example Interactive Voice Response has a disadvantage that it is you won't be informed on who is voting because anybody can take it . The Random Digit Dialing method has disadvantages like it has outdated and exclude younger people. The Cluster Sampling method and Systematic Sampling method is not possible in this scenario because it needs a larger population and since the sampling will be low in this scenario this won't give us the best results and possibly won't be as diverse as we needed to be. The Random Sampling method is not diverse also it is hard to conduct research on how and who voted and does not have quality
Gelman, Andrew and Gary King, “Why Are America Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?” 1993. PDF.
The general public opinion polls being analyzed and compared include the following two: a poll by the Pew organization on the topic of outside campaign spending and a poll by the Rasmussen organization on the Electoral College. Before proceeding to a comparison or analysis, the property in question for both must be identified because it will allow for analysis of aspects such as proper sample sizes and methodologies in regards to the question, which will allow for any discrepancies to appear. These discrepancies will be the evidence in support of the conclusion regarding the strength of one poll over the other.
...onducted by Gallup in this article are well designed and representative of the entire voting population. However, there is always room for improvement, and I am confident that the polls are becoming more and more accurate every day. It is very important that polls are as accurate as possible because people trust polls, basing their views and reports on them.
A survey can be defined as a gathering of a sample of data or opinions considered to be representative of a whole. Such as when the United States government polls a random selection of people throughout the country to get an accurate reading of the people's overall prospective of what the American people think is best for the country. As I almost reach the age of eighteen, not only do I have to start worrying about my career and college, I have to affliate myself with a party and prepare to vote. I have taken three online polls and they all came out with similar results; I am a republican. The three polls I took were The Political Affiliation Quiz, The Political Quiz, and Political Compass. I liked them all but all for various reasons.
Approximately 200 years ago, our founding fathers of America began a tedious process of carefully designing and crafting an idea to solve the problem of selecting president. Soon, the idea of citizens indirectly selecting the president soon bloomed into the formation of the initial College of Electors. Although some individuals cherish this firm establishment, I firmly think the Electoral College fails to balance power and politically sustain our nation.
Zorn, Eric. “One thing polls show accurately: Changed minds." Chicago Tribune Nov 9, 2004: 1.
“Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 60% cellphone respondents and 40% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region” (How Does the Gallup U.S. Daily Work?). Since landlines are becoming few and far between, it makes sense that there would be a higher percentage devoted to cell phone users. Many people who use landlines either have very strong religious beliefs that prohibit them from having cell phones, or they are not that technologically advanced. Also many of the people who use landlines are older and have different view points than the majority of younger generations. By having the older generation incorporated, we are able to see how age plays apart into the surveys that are given. For example, the older generation as a whole would not necessarily approve of LGBT movement because they were raised in a different environment than kids are in this day and age. Incorporating all age groups let us see how a voter may change his or her viewpoints based on how he or she has seen what has happened to the country in the past. This is how having an age difference in interviews can provide an accurate reading by giving us wide-spread
In the last three decades, polls became an important instrument for the media, especially television networks, to determine who wins and who loses the election. Caprini conducted a study about the impact of the early prediction of a winner in the 1980 presidential race by the television networks. He observed that, shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern standard time, NBC announced that, according to its analysis of exit poll data, Ronald Reagan was to be the next president of the United States (Caprini, 1984, p. 866). That early call was controversial because the polls in many states were still open at the time and, in some of th...
I should receive a passing grade in this class because I can write now. Not just an exaggeration, but after another semester of English I finally feel confident that can write. Three of the reasons behind my confidence is I learned, I experienced and best of all I repeated. These three values helped prepare me for what is in store in English 1302 and here is why.
Polls have a role in political campaigns and shaping government policies but recently the reliability of polls have come into question. The Republican polls provided the information to Presidential candidate Mitt Romney that he had a strong chance of winning key battle ground states. The polls showed "he had at least 267 out of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election" (Hoffman). When watching the election night returns the reality was Romney only received 206 Electoral College votes far away from the magic number needed to win or tie the national election. The candidate’s team used these polls and focused on states that showed a strong chance to gain votes. Romney focused his energy in Ohio and Pennsylvania, both states he eventually lost.
Everyone has the right to vote, or not to vote in the years we live today. People decide whether they wish to participate in the nation’s future or just walk aimlessly and allow it to take its own path. Over decades, centuries, our country continued growing but just recently did it allow all to vote as long as they call this nation home. Run-on Sentence: Over decades, centuries, our country continued growing, but just recently did it allow all to vote as long as they call this nation home. However, large amounts of people still do not vote in any politics. Today everyone should understand what differences a vote could make like what can happen, why it matters, and benefits of voting.