Financial Forecast for Goldengate Capital
The forecasted balance sheets, income statements and assumption provided to Goldengate Capital by Ernst and Anderson are shown in Exhibits. All dollar figures quoted are in thousands. The financial forecasts are conservative case sales estimates from Dr. Martinez. The three main factors considered in the estimates were case sales trends & demand, inflation and real price increases reflecting Calaveras' strengthening brand recognition.
The first assumption is that the prices will increase 2% before inflation. The production level per ton of grapes and yield per acre will increase to 1992 levels due to the new market strategies. Sales are expected to grow 13% in 1995 after which estimate of 12%, 6%, and 8% for 1996, 1997 and 1998, respectively show growth while recognizing a shift toward white wines. The tax rate of 37% and inflation rate of 2% is factored in to the forecast. Therefore the prices per case for each category has 2% price growth as well as 2% inflation rate, total of 4% was reflected in arriving at the forecasted income statement. Maximum capacity of 110,000 was assumed in the forecast and does show that even with the increase levels of production will not hit this ceiling in the next 5 years. Depreciation was calculated on 5-year straight-line basis, while SGA was constant 14% of sales. The key drivers of this model are Gross margin on each of the 5 main product group, tax rate, inflation rate, real price growth level, interest rate, Inventory to COGS, Accounts Receivable to Sales ratio.
EVALUATIONS OF PRO FORMA STATEMENTS
In order to analyze the financial position of Calaveras Vineyard, as mentioned in the "Financial Forecast Method and Assumptions" section, Proforma Income statement and Balance sheet was compiled using the assumptions mentioned in the previous section. We use the weight of products and the comparable companies’ unleveled beta to calculate the cost of capital. Using these assumptions, WACC was determined to be 16.1% .
Cost of capital
Product line / Comparable Calaveras % Unlevered beta
Premium/Finn & Sawyer 74.40% 1.312
Generic/Canandaigua 9.00% 0.54
Specialty/Frogg's Jump 16.60% 0.867
Weighted average unlevered beta 1.169
Risk-free rate (30-yr T-bond) 5.85%
Market equity risk premium 5.70%
Calaveras unlevered cost of equity 12.51%
In order to determine the value of operations, and using proforma income statement and balance sheet statement, Cash flow statement was formulated for the next 5 years. The Account Receivables plus the Inventory minus the Account Payable was determined as Net Operating Working Assets. An organization cost of 0,000 was amortized over the 5-year period.