Case Study: Rocky Mountain Advanced Genome Inc
In order to provide an accurate valuation of RMAG, the forecast horizon needs to reach the maturity stage the firm’s growth. The product that will take the longest to be marketed, Human Therapeutics is not expected to be earning revenues for RMAG for 4-7 years therefore to allow these products to reach their maturity in generating cash flows, a horizon for longer than 10 years is recommended. 15 years was used for this analysis to ensure that the terminal value of the company was determined when the company is mature not in the growth stage which could greatly skew results.
In order to forecast free cash flow, the first assumptions that had to be made were in regards to sales growth for RMAG;s products. As information regarding diagnostics and agriculture related products is limited and comparable companies are scarce, it was assumed that RMAG’s forecasts were slightly optimistic as to push firm value up therefore an average sales revenue was determined from RMAG and Big Sur’s forecasts. To forecast beyond 2005, sales growth per year was analysed historically and then used to extrapolate future sales until 2010. As the products will originally experience extremely high sales growth due to the unique nature of products, the growth will need to eventually slow to an industry average therefore this is demonstrated in the forecast proforma. Sales growth is expected to slow to 2.5-5%, the range of industry average to economy growth.
Human Therapeutics are expected to be the most lucrative portion of RMAG’s business however some discrepancies are evident between RMAG and Big Sur forecasts regarding when these revenues are expected to be realised. Comparatively, Human Genome Science...
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...tio multiple gave a valuation of RMAG which was much higher than the other two methods. This has meant that it has been given the lowest value in triangulation as not to skew the results. This skewed result is attributed to the company’s earnings being significantly higher than their competitors pushing up the price of the company.
Therefore using triangulation; the value of the firm was determined to be;
RMAG Valuation=(0.5) DCF Valuation+(0.4)Price to Book Ratio Multiple+(0.1)Price to Earnings Ratio Multiple
RMAG Valuation = $50.03 million
Therefore 90% of RMAG is valued at $45.03 million.
This valuation of RMAG is slightly lower than the $46 million asked by RMAG management. This can be due to a number of aforementioned sensitivities to this valuation of RMAG. Based on RMAG’s original forecast, the DCF approach has offered the most accurate valuation of RMAG.
Star Appliance is looking to expand their product line and is considering three different projects: dishwashers, garbage disposals, and trash compactors. We want to determine which project would be worth doing by determining if they will add value to Star. Thus, the project(s) that will add the most value to Star Appliance will be worth pursuing. The current hurdle rate of 10% should be re-evaluated by finding the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Then by forecasting the cash flows of each project and discounting them by the WACC to find the net present value, or by solving for the internal rate of return, we should be able to see which projects Star should undertake.
Mondavi’s stock appears to be over valued by approximately 100% compared to 1997 and 1998’s per share market value. According to the EPS ratio, such over valuation appears to be consistent from ’97 to ’98, according to the EPS ratio. Therefore, it seems that investors would be hesitant to purchase Mondavi’s stock.
In order to estimate the possible impacts of introducing Oxyglobin as a major product, it was assumed that Biopure would be able to produce and sell its full capacity of 300,000 units per year. As can be seen in Exhibit 1, the results of such an aggressive marketing strategy would yield a positive gross margin of between 49% and 66%, assuming the product was sold at a price of $100 to $150 per unit.
Earlier 2002, the stock price of Agnico-Eagle Mines sharply decreased by $1 finally closed at $13.89. This price has reached one of the lowest level, from the company's historical perspective. As a professional equity portfolio manager, who has a large number of AEM stocks on hand. Acker and his team are necessary to find a proper way to estimated the fair value of AEM as well as its equity. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) has been chosen to do this job. The theory behind DCF valuation approach is that the firm's value can be estimated by using the expected future free cash flow discounted by an appropriate discounted rate (Koller etc 2005). However several assumptions need to be clearly examined within this approach. The following sections are showing the process of DCF step by step.
Valuation refers to the procedure of converting forecast into an estimation of company assets or equity value. The four available models have been used to for JB HI-FI are including the discounted dividends (DDM), discounted abnormal earnings (RIM), discounted abnormal operating earnings (ROIM) and discounted cash flow (DCF).
Based on the information in the case, Pepsi could invest US$360 million in exchange for 30% equity of Deltex. So we have to calculate the value of 30% equity of Deltex. First, we calculated the discount factor by using average unlevered beta of US independent bottlers, US 10 year Treasury bond as risk free rate and assuming market risk premium 10%. We came up with 9.83% of WACC. Next, we calculated Deltex free cash flow and terminal value and then converted them into US dollar value. Now with WACC and total cash flow, we had NPV of the company. So we deducted current debt from NPV and came up with the value of US$360M investment equal to 59.99% of Deltex equity. So the proposal to buy 30% of Deltex with US$360M is too expensive to PepsiCo and not attractive to PepsiCo.
Discounted Cash Flow Method takes the forecast free cash flows during forecasted horizon. Then we estimate the cost of capital (weighted average cost of capital) and estimate continuing value (value after forecast horizon). The future value is discounted to the present value. We than add back cash ($13 Million) and non-current assets and deduct total debt. With the information provided several assumptions had to be made to obtain reasonable values (life period of 30-years, Capital expenditures not to exceed $1 million dollars, depreciation to stay constant at $1.15 Million and a discounted rate of 10%). Based on our analysis, the company has a stand-alone value of $51 Million at the end of fiscal year end 1990 with a net present value of cash flows of $33 million that does not include the cash and non-current assets a cash of and non-current assets.
2. Given the forecasts provided in the case, estimate the expected incremental free cash flows associated with Du Pont’s growth strategy and maintain strategy for the TiO2 market. How much risk and uncertainty surround these future cash flows? Which strategy looks most attractive (i.e., using the DCF (e.g., NPV) method)??
Over the past decade, scientists have made significant advancements in the treatment of certain diseases. Unfortunately, just like any new product, the cost of developing these new technologies and treatments is extremely high. Plus, unlike other technology, heath technolo...
While analyzing the data for The Body Shop International case, I noticed some trends and have compiled my assumptions for the next three years. I have compiled pro-forma statements for the fiscal years 2002, 2003 & 2004. These figures are based on the percentage of sales method for pro-forma financial modeling. Simply put, I used the sales figures from the past three years 1999, 2000 & 2001 and applied a growth rate of 13% increase to sales. Below are some additional assumptions that I have created to illustrate how the firm can become profitable while increasing market share and maintaining stockholder interest within the firm over the next three years.
The expectation of what will come in the form of future revenue in relation to the dollars spent today on the project will determine the viability and profitability of the project or expenditure which is presented before the company. By using the NPV calculation a company can reasonably conclude whether or not to go forward with an investment with cash they have on hand today. The positive of this calculation method and approach is the projected return will give a better idea of the project’s feasibility and probability of coming to fruition. (Gallo,
Case 4 refers to a small Brazilian startup company which focus its activities in research and development of new processes and products based on green and renewable materials. The company has four main acting lines: 1) development of new third generation ethanol production processes; 2) development of herbal drugs and cosmetics; 3) technical analyses and reports about heavy metals contamination; 4) biochemical analysis in general. One special aspect of the company's vision is the social view. The owners are committed to drive the projects in direction of sharing and offering technology to poor communities as a form to improve the life condition of them. This social driven strategy is known as directed
It has to be analyzed the company's performance, forecast fund needs and make a recommendation. The case introduces the pattern of current assets and cash flows in a seasonal company and provide and elementary exercise in the construction of the pro forma financial statements and estimation of fund needs.
However, as proven by Genzyme’s roadmap to selling for $20 billion, it was clear that innovative approaches had to continually be pursued and considered. It was not enough to simply identify and enter this niche market, Genzyme also had to innovate the way a biotech firm would position itself within the market by not teaming up with larger pharmaceutical companies early on and by pursuing alternative means to obtain the necessary funds to finance their research and development costs, which was done by generating revenues though side
The future of biotechnology can be seen as one that is relatively safe and guaranteed. Because the industry is constantly focused on the future, as long as there are always new innovations and goals to work towards (like cures for diseases and renewable energy sources), the industry will remain to be a key part of the United States and global economies. When looking at future forecasts for this industry, it is no wonder that venture capitalists, private investors and universities are looking to grant or invest large sums of capital to these firms; biotechnology products accounted for 21% of the total 714 billion dollars in the global market for prescription drugs in 2012, and is expected to grow to 25% by 2018. This substantial growth forecasted in a risky stock is what helps keep our economy healthy.