Recent Developments in the Emerging Markets of Latin America
1. In the LAC region, growth is moderating after reaching a 24-year high in 2004. (Figure 26) Nonetheless, projected growth rates of about 4 percent in 2005 and 3¾ percent in 2006 are still well above historical averages. Recent growth performance has been supported by the continued strength of global commodity and raw material prices that have boosted terms of trade and exports receipts. Mexico and countries in South America have gained, in particular, from the surge in fuel, food, and metals prices, and have generally been able to exploit these opportunities by expanding volumes-in some cases very substantially. Domestic demand has also generally remained robust (showing renewed strength recently in Brazil), and investment ratios are nearing, on average, a relatively high 20 percent of GDP, although some countries are beginning to face capacity constraints after their strong recoveries (Argentina, Uruguay).
2. A strengthening of policies and improved confidence have been reflected in exchange rate appreciations since mid-2004. For six large countries in the region (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru), the nominal effective rate rose by an average of about 9 percent since the beginning of 2005 (based on data through end-July), with a larger increase in Brazil (24 percent), without significantly affecting exports. At the same time, reserves have continued to rise; for example, in Argentina, they are approaching US$26 billion, some nine months of imports of goods and services, and in Peru, reserves are more than 270 percent of maturing short-term external debt. Reserve accumulation in the region reflects current account surpluses and the renewed strength of investor sentiment toward the region, but in some cases the efforts by some countries to resist a rapid appreciation of their exchange rates that they fear could reduce competitiveness. However, looking ahead, preserving flexibility in exchange rate management-as part of the improved macroeconomic policy mix-will be very important, especially with regard to inflation targets.
3. The increasing role of domestic currency financing in the region also represents a source of resilience. (Figure 38) A number of countries-most notably Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru-have increased their reliance on domestic debt issuance, reducing their vulnerability to exchange rate risk and increasing the liquidity of local currency markets. Some countries, including Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay, have also issued global bonds in local currency. The increased use of domestic debt instruments at longer maturities-most prominently in Colombia, Chile, Mexico, and Peru-has also helped improve debt profiles.
The basic model employed after Cardenas to promote growth in the Mexican economy was Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI), whereby Mexico attempted to build domestic industry and a domestic market. The strategy quickly started paying dividends, and the “import-substitution policies of the Mexican state were successful in generating rapid and sustained economic growth” (Sharpe 28). ISI ushered in the “Mexican Miracle” of economic growth; the Mexican growth hovered around 6% annually for some thirty years (Hellman 1). The government created incentives for investment and lowered taxation to spur domestic investment. Despite the strong economic indicators, the spoils of growth were not shared by many.
Meade (1988) stated that, because of the exchange rate rapid decline so much since early 1985 in the US and because the monthly trade statistics has been examined so thoroughly for any sign of a turnaround in the nominal trade balance, the J-curve phenomenon has received much attention. The statistics often implies that the negative effect of depreciation is reflected in the J-curve as the continuation of nominal trade deficit. Between early 1985 and 1988, the exchange value of US dollar in terms of currencies of other countries, registered a sizeable depreciation. The deficits recorded in the trade account were mirrored in the current account deficit. Meade depicted the significance of the exchange rate to the trade account as well as current account through the use of the J-curve highlighting that the phenomenon is used as a long-term goal to curb the deficits, however in the short-run, depreciation will increase the nominal deficits accumulated by a country.
The central bank of Mexico has built up at high level of international reserve. The huge reserve was the result of the Mexican government?s policy of exchange intervention to prevent large fluctuation in the peso. In the beginning of 1994, the reserve amounted to US$26.4 billion but was depleted to a low US$6.7 billion in Mid Dec, flagging red light that the exchange mechanism had been pushed to the limit and the government can no longer hold on to the pegged peso to US dollar.
Kehoe, Timothy J. (November 2010). Why Economic Reforms Have Not Generated Economic Growth in Mexico. Kim J. Ruhl Department of Economics, NYU Stern School of Business. Retrieved from http://www.kimjruhl.com/storage/data/KehoeRuhlJEL.pdf
Brazil is both the largest and most populous country in South America. It is the 5th largest country worldwide in terms of both area (more than 8.5 Mio. km2 ) and habitants (appr. 190 million). The largest city is Sao Paulo which is simultaneously the country's capital; official language is Portuguese. According to the WorldBank classification for countries, Brazil - with a GDP of 1,5 bn. US $ in 2005 and a per capita GPD of appr. 8.500 US - can be considered as an upper middle income country and therefore classified as an industrializing country, aligned with the classification as one of the big emerging markets (BEM) next to Argentina and Mexico. Per capita income is constantly increasing as well as literacy rate (current illiteracy rate 8%). Due to its high population rate (large labour pool), its vast natural resources and its geographical position in the centre of South America, it bears enormous growth potential in the near future. Aligned with an increasing currency stability, international companies have heavily invested in Brazil during the past decade. According to CIA World Factbook, Brazil has the 11th largest PPP in 2004 worldwide and today has a well established middle income economy with wide variations in levels of development. Thus, today Brazil is South America's leading economic power and a regional leader.
Colombia is one of the oldest democracies in Latin America with solid functioning institutions, progressive laws, an active civil society, and one of the most ecologically diverse countries in the world. Economically speaking, Colombia has had a surprisingly turnaround over the past decade due to the confidence and business opportunities that the investors have found in its emerging market. However, the improvements made in the economy are not sufficient to ensure sustainable economic development. On May 15, 2012, the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) went into effect, and after almost two years its effects have had a negative impact in Colombia’s economy, mainly in its agricultural sector, which constitutes 11.5% of the country’s GDP (Cámara Colombo Coreana). The farmers complain that cheap imports from the United States are hurting their sector leaving some of them almost in bankruptcy. During August and September 2013, the country was in a nationwide strike against the Free Trade Agreement, which had different areas of the country paralyzed specially in Bogota, the capital city.
Most Latin America countries are known as third world countries because the economic structure still in development. To overcome such judgment the countries had been developing different policies since the 1970s. The policies promise to help the countries to obtain a healthier economy and have an economic growth. The author Franko explains in the book The Puzzles of Latin America Economic Development how the economist Paul Rosenstein “believes that in order to achieve sustained growth, an economy must develop various industries simultaneously, requiring a coordination of investment or a big push.” (pg. 19) But to accomplished economic growth countries need to reduce the government control over the economy and start developing a market-base economy. Market-base economy would not only guarantee positive results of development, but will also create a more stable economy. Mexico is one of the countries that have integrated new policies and other economic change which have been giving the country positive results mainly on its economy.
Truman, Edwin M. . "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Implications for International Finance." Federal Reserve Bulletin 0 (1996): 199-209.
Brazil, the world’s seventh largest economy by nominal GDP, the sixth largest by purchasing power parity (The World Bank. 2016.), one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world, with an average annual GDP growth rate of over 5% (Blankfeld. 2010.). On paper, evaluating based on GDP, Brazil has acquired status that of developed country, surpassing United Kingdom, Sweden, most European
The Web. 11 Mar. 2014. The 'Standard' of the 'Standard'. http://policydialogue.org/files/publications/The_Latin_American_Debt_Crisis_in_Historical_Perspective_Jos_Antonio_Ocampo.pdf>. Pastor, Manuel, Jr. "Latin America, the Debt Crisis, and the International Monetary Fund.
The Latin American Debt crisis did not occur over night, the crisis was many years in the making and signs of its arrival were prominent in Latin American society. The reasons for its occurrence are also expansive; some fault can also be place in countries outside of Latin America. The growth rate in the real domestic product of many Latin American countries grew at a constantly high rate in the decade prior to the crisis in the 1980s, this growth led to an increase in foreign investment, corporate investment, and the world began supporting these developing nations (Ocampo). The foreign investments into Latin America created a new international financial system that gave the foreign banks access the funds to give massive loans to the developing nations of Latin America. However, the affluence was not continuous. A rise in natural resources occurred in the mid-1970s, which led to increase the prices of imported goods, and thus Latin American countries would have to find a way to pay back these deficits, which then led them to borrowing more money. By the end of the 1970s, Latin America was in debt to for over $150 billion, and the growth rates for each nations debt varied greatly with Mexico and Brazil taking on more than half of the debt themselves.
Many people know of cartels and drug trafficking, however, they do not realize how serious of a problem it is becoming. Every day there are hundreds of drugs transported into the United States from Latin America, mostly coming from Mexico and Columbia. These cartels are becoming smarter and more creative with their ways of smuggling drugs. They have become ruthless and will do whatever it takes to get their supplies into the country. To better understand how cartels work, you must understand their ways of transporting drugs and how creative they have become with it. Cartels will go as far as using tunnels, boats, planes, vehicles, donkeys and mules to transport all of their drugs.
The stability of currency values plays a significant role for economic and financial stability. It is not difficult to see the exchange rate fluctuations are widely regarded as damaging. As the movements of the exchange rate have significant and large effects on the trade balance, resource allocation, domestic prices, interest rate, national income and other key economic variables. Then can exchange rate movements be predicted by these fundamental economic variables?
Debt crisis is becoming common and faced by most citizens in Malaysia. Between June 1997 and January 1998 a financial crisis swept like a brush fire through the "tiger economies" of SE Asian. Over the previous decade the SE Asian states of Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Hong Kong, and South Korea, had registered some of the most impressive economic growth rates in the world. Their economies had expanded by 6% to 9% per annum compounded, as measured by Gross Domestic Product. This Asian miracle, however, appeared to come to an sudden end in late 1997 when in one country after another, local stock markets and currency markets imploded. When the dust started to settle in January 1998 the stock markets in many of these states had lost over 70% of their value, their currencies had depreciated against the US dollar by a similar amount, and the once proud leaders of these nations had been forced to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to beg for a massive financial assistance. (W.L.Hill, n.d.)
Ferguson et al. International financial stability. Geneva: International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, 2007. Print.