The Theory Police Study Guide

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Chapter 17, The Theory Police, kicks off with a broad introduction of rational investing. Kahneman is introduced as the first to explain the consequences of the rigid constraints of the rational model, and the manner in which perfect human beings violate it on a regular basis. Bernstein provides an example of violating the rational model. The scenario he mentions is one in which you sell shares of stock a day before the price of that stock increased by a noticeable percentage. So then what would you do? You could either tell your spouse of your mistake, or you could just be mad at yourself. This brings Bernstein to introduce David Bell, a psychologist, who “suggested that “decision regret” is the result of focusing on the assets you might have …show more content…

Well, is it true? If so, just how well can that particular someone else manage that responsibility? Looking at this with a broader sense on the matter, as the twentieth century was nearing its end, what exactly did the large popularity of derivatives convey to us about society's view of risk as well as the uncertain future that lied ahead? Going back to the Proctor and Gamble case, exactly who persuaded who to do what remained unclear. On the other hand, the cause of the disasters was clear enough: they simply took the risk of volatility instead of hedging it. Proctor and Gamble made the stability of their cash flows captives to the accuracy of their interest-rate forecasts. Although Bankers Trust and the other dealers in derivatives were running their books on the basis of Pascal's Triangle, Gauss's bell curves, and Markowitz's covariances, the corporate risk-takers were heavily relying on Keynesian degrees of belief. This was not the time and place to bet the corporate world or to act out failures of …show more content…

Chaos theory now enters the mix, as it is an alternative to the ideas of Pascal and the others. According to chaos theorists, it comes from a phenomenon known as “nonlinearity.” Students of chaos theory disagree with the idea of the symmetry of the bell curve as a representation of reality. They also don’t believe in conventional theories of finance, probability, and economics. In chaos theory, the idea of a norm is nonexistent. Chaos theory rejects the idea of discontinuity, but what appears to be discontinuity is not a sudden break with the past. Rather, it is the logical consequence of previous events. As Bernstein states, “in a world of chaos, wildness is always waiting to show itself.” (pg

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