The Pros And Cons Of Macropoland

Macropoland, a natural gas and oil importer, has a natural rate of unemployment of about 4.5% and a long run average rate of inflation of about 2%. However, there are two specific time periods where these rates fell below their potential. During the period between 1973-1974, the country had an inflation rate of about 15%, with an unemployment rate of nearly 13%. And now, they are experiencing an unemployment rate of 9% and an inflation rate of 0.4%. As their new economic advisor, it is my job to explain these two time periods.
First, I will discuss the time period between 1973-1974. Because the unemployment and inflation rates are higher than normal, we can assume that the aggregate-demand curve is downward-sloping. When the aggregate-demand curve is downward-sloping, we know that the economy’s demand has slowed down. When the economy’s demand has slowed down, businesses have to choice but to raise prices and lay off workers in order to preserve profits. When employers throughout the country respond to their decrease in demand the same way, unemployment increases.
There are a couple reasons why the aggregate-demand curve slopes downward. The first is the wealth effect. If the prices are higher, the money one has is worth less. It can be put into perspective by looking at it on a microeconomic level. For example, if you have a $20 bill, and the price for a ham sandwich rises from $5 to $10, you can only buy two sandwiches, rather than four. This shows that lower wealth leads to lower consumption, lower consumption leads to lower production, which means less workers will be need, leading to layoffs. The second reason is the interest-rate effect. As the prices rise, so do the interest rates. Higher interest rates hold down thing...

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...ts profit. This causes an increase in unemployment. Deflation also affects loans. When deflation occurs, borrowers are paying back loans in dollars that are worth less than expected. So one’s income may decrease, but the size of their loan stays the same, making it more difficult to pay off.
In conclusion, regardless of Macropoland’s current economic condition, it is fair to say that it is all part of the business cycle. The business cycle has three parts: peak, trough, and peak. The peak is the date that the recession starts. In Macropoland’s case, the peak would be at the beginning of 1973, its trough somewhere between 1973 and 1974, and then its peak again at 1974. In the second scenario, Macropoland is either at its trough, where it is about to head up again because of its low inflation rate, or it is at its expansion, on its way to heading to its next peak.