Outlook for the Price of Platinum

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Outlook for the Price of Platinum

Introduction

The aim of this report is to forecast the future price of platinum using both macroeconomic and mircoeconomic principles. The factors influencing supply and demand of platinum will be looked at, and a regression analysis forecast done.

Factors Affecting Supply

As shown in graph 1, South Africa is the largest producer of Platinum (79%) followed by Russia (12%) and North America (5%). Supply from regions outside of South Africa has remained relatively stable over the past ten years, with any increase in supply primarily driven by South Africa. For this reason, only factors influencing South Africa’s ability to supply the market will be looked at

We expect global platinum supply deficit to increase in 2008 in light of the current skills shortage and energy crisis in South Africa. Metals analyst at HSBC, Victor Flores, predicts that global platinum supply deficit will increase in 2008 by approximately 0.5 million to 2 million ounces (Hill L, 2008, “Platinum deficit will likely widen in ’08”, Mining Weekly, 3 March).

Labour Shortage

CEO of Impala Platinum - David Browne stated in an interview that the biggest challenge facing the mining industry currently is a skills shortage. 2007 saw the first year on year decrease in Platinum supply since 2000 with a drop in production of platinum from 6,7 million ounces to 6,6 million ounces. Anglo Platinum and Impala Platinum - the two major suppliers of Platinum in South Africa, both reported difficulties in achieving higher levels of supply due to the shortage of skilled labour. This shortage has been exacerbated by increasing commodity prices forcing previously mothballed operations to be reopened.

It is unlikely...

... middle of paper ...

...rs, the overall price of Platinum is expected to increase to USD 3,373 by the end of 2008

Bibliography

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Hargreaves B, 2008, “Material Gains”, Professional Engineering, Professional Engineering Publishing 16th January 2008 p 43

B. Gene & F. Cawood, 2005, “Platinum Market - Position Paper”, The 19th International Mining Congress and Fair of Turkey, IMCET2005, İzmir, Turkey, June 09-12, pp 29
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