Bias In Presidential Elections

U.S. Presidential Elections offer ample opportunity to observe common heuristics and biases in supporters, candidates, and the media. While all elections offer exposure to these concepts, none has proved more bountiful than this election. The two polarizing candidates at the top of each ticket have, some would argue, brought out the worst in each other and lowered the bar for American democracy.

Let’s evaluate this assessment by examining each concept in turn:

Hostile media effect. This election has led to particularly heated exchange over the role of media in the U.S. election process and whether it plays an oversized part in influencing voters. The Trump campaign, in particular, has called CNN the Clinton News Network and declared it

No one could have predicted and few actually did predict Trump winning the Republican primaries (outside of his core supporters, with even the candidate himself stating a 20% chance of success at one point). While hindsight bias may be evident in the future whereby no one believes that Trump truly had a chance of winning in the general election, there were moments in which even his most vocal critics thought the possibility of his winning (while horrifying to them) could in fact be 50% or greater. However, there does not appear to be hindsight bias at this particular moment as the polls lean heavily to one side and a observers expect this side to win, thereby precluding the

All elections display a degree of false consensus whereby the candidates and their parties assume that voters will prefer their own preferences over those of their opponent. This is changing with the increased use of targeted polling and customized messages on almost a voter-by-voter basis. However, generally speaking, in these elections Democrats start with the premise that people want more equality and Republicans that they want more freedom. The two parties build their platforms on this basis; when in fact, voters may perhaps like more of both, and motherhood and apple pie too!

Overconfidence bias. This bias is on prominent display with the Republican candidate in particular displaying a strong overconfidence bias, whereby he seems to believe his experience as a successful businessperson will translate seamlessly to national governance. While this bias does tend to inspire strong support among his followers, it can act as a turn-off to those who do not support him and to a large degree those who would otherwise be indifferent/