Staying out of Syria: inaction risks sectarian warfare and destabilization of neighboring states.

The year-long government crackdown on pro-democracy activists in Syria will result in protracted civil war if it is allowed to continue. This will heighten sectarian tensions across the Middle East, threaten the stability of neighboring states and draw foreign Islamist fighters to the aid of the Syrian opposition. If the latest round of diplomacy fails to halt the bloodshed, international military intervention against the Syrian government will emerge as the only viable solution to the crisis.

The UN estimates that more than 9,000 people have been killed as a result of the violence so far and the vast majority by the hands of pro-government forces. Western states currently find diplomacy and sanctions to be the most politically tenable policy options available for dealing with this situation. From a strategic perspective, however, regional forces are likely to be increasingly drawn into the conflict precisely because the wider international community is staying out of it. This raises the possibility of a sectarian proxy war between Sunni and Shi’a Islam in the country.

Sunni Muslims are the religious majority in Syria, accounting for 74% of the population and the majority of those protesting against the government. The 12% minority Shi’a Alawi sect, on the other hand, effectively rules the country. Alawis make up most of the Syrian police, internal security services and staff key government and military positions. The conscripted Syrian army itself is predominantly Sunni Muslim. According to a Turkish Foreign Ministry official about 60,000 soldiers have defected or deserted during the crackdown.

Foreign Shi'a groups are reported to be assisting the government to suppress the uprising, according to activists. Leaked Stratf...

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...ion be armed, they will require a comprehensive commitment including training, intelligence, and operational support. The political will would have to be summoned for limited air-strikes if necessary, aimed not at degrading the largely conscripted Syrian army but specifically eliminating tanks and artillery that open fire on civilian areas and rebel positions. These measures would drastically tip the balance of the conflict against the government.

Intervention would also provide the international community with enough influence among the opposition to discourage revenge attacks against members of the deposed minority Alawi sect, and other regime supporters in a post-Assad Syria. It might still be politically expedient to stay out of the conflict, but western states may yet be forced to embark on a humanitarian intervention, and on increasingly unfavorable terms.