Why The Federal Reserve should raise rates this September Will they or Won’t they? The world is equally divided on the answer to this question. The answer has the power to change the direction of many world economies and their Central Banks. The whole world is transfixed on the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and their decision during their next meeting in September. Market participants are divided into two camps. In the first camp we have the economists and other market participants who support the rate hike in September. The other camp involves stock market traders who support further delay of the inevitable. Like everyone else, I am also entitled for my opinion. I have drawn my opinion after studying the three important mandates the Fed addresses. …show more content…
Inflation Japan is currently seeing the effects of deflation. A whole generation in Japan is lost in fighting deflation with no result. Deflation though remains a major risk to the US and world economy even today. Though the labor markets kept improving, inflation was all along well below the Fed’s target range of 2%. Even today inflation has not reached 2%. However, Fed chair had said that with the improvement in the labor market and a gradual rise in wage market, inflation would gradually creep up to 2%. The Federal Reserve doesn’t want to be behind the curve in raising rates. The dangers of maintaining very low interest rates for a considerable period of time even after returning to normalcy can have adverse affects. Chances of hyperinflation increase and the Fed wants to avoid entering into another financial crisis. Raising the rates too early has the risk of pushing back the economy again into recession. Recent commodity route and worries about the Chinese economy have raised doubts about the health of the world economy. Slump in commodity prices have some experts believe that the economy is still not healthy enough to face a hike in interest rates, whereas a few others believe that the economy is healthy enough and it warrants a rate …show more content…
Conclusion US stock markets are higher today than during The Great Recession. They are almost up three times from their lows made during the financial crisis. No one had imagined that in seven years time we would be here. Fears of a recession are almost nonexistent. US businesses are in better shape with well repaired balance sheets. Labor markets are improving and wages are slowly but gradually on an uptick. Housing prices and housing activity are looking up. Growth is slowly but surely returning. The Fed forecasts the US GDP to grow 2.2-3.2% for 2016. Although I am concerned about effects a rate hike by the US Fed would have on the US dollar and foreign currencies, I believe these fears will be short lived and will work themselves out. This is as better a time it can get for the US Fed to start their move. I am of the opinion that the first rate hike should happen at the next Federal Reserve meeting in September to indicate a turnaround in the Fed’s
When interest rates on loans are high, this leaves people with less disposable income resulting in less consumer spending. Depending on where the economy stands, this can be good or bad, as it would lead toward recession. But that may be exactly what is intended in order to decrease spending if the economy is currently experiencing over-inflation. The government may intentionally send the market into a recession rather than potentially risking too high levels of inflation. On the other hand, if the economy were already in recession this would only make the recession worse. In the situation where the economy is currently in recession, the government is instead going to change the overnight rate in order to therefore lower interest rates on loans in order to provoke consumer
This paper aims to discuss the Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts of the Great Recession and
The Federal Reserve and Macroeconomic Factors Introduction The Federal Reserve controls the economy of the United States through a variety of tools. They use these tools to shape the monetary policy of the United States in order to promote economic growth and reduce the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. By adjusting these tools, the Fed is able to control the amount of money in the supply. By controlling the amount of money, the Fed can affect the macro-economic indicators and steer the economy away from runaway inflation or a recession.
We feel that the latter is on the radical side of thinking, and that overall the Federal Reserve has the best interest of the nation and international economy in all their decisions regarding the increases in interest rates, etc. Since the onset of the Federal Reserve, we have not gone into a major depression, and over the course of time there will be times when our economy will peak and boom and the Fed will feel that it is time to slow the economy by raising the rates. Bibliography FED 101 Hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. http://www.kc.frb.org/fed101 Friedman, Milton and Jacobson Schwartz, Anna. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960.
Our government has a strong motive to inconspicuously economically manipulate its citizens by changing interest rates. When interest rates ...
Press Release. (2012, January 11). Retrieved May 23, 2012, from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20120110a.htm
The term Monetary policy refers to the method through which a country’s monetary authority, such as the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England control money supply for the aim of promoting economic stability and growth and is primarily achieved by the targeting of various interest rates. Monetary policy may be either contractionary or expansionary whereby a contractionary policy reduces the money supply, reduces the rate at which money is supplied or sets about an increase in interest rates. Expansionary policies on the other hand increase the supply of money or lower the interest rates. Interest rates may also be referred to as tight if their aim is to reduce inflation; neutral, if their aim is neither inflation reduction nor growth stimulation; or, accommodative, if aimed at stimulating growth. Monetary policies have a great impact on the economic stability of a country and if not well formulated, may lead to economic calamities (Reinhart & Rogoff, 2013). The current monetary policy of the United States Federal Reserve while being accommodative and expansionary so as to stimulate growth after the 2008 recession, will lead to an economic pitfall if maintained in its current state. This paper will examine this current policy, its strengths and weaknesses as well as recommendations that will ensure economic stability.
Interest-rate stability is very important for the Fed to control because otherwise consumers, like you and I, will be reluctant to buy things like houses due to the fluctuation which will make it harder to plan for the future.
From 1997 to1998, both countries : Thailand and Indonesia reached their highest peak of inflation, which is 9.24% and 75.27% respectively. It is caused by the Asian financial crisis which hit most of the asian countries. The crisis is started in Thailand as its currency, Baht is attacked by the currency traders, and eventually devalued after they found out that the market is unstaintable. For Indonesia, the nation belived that It is triggered by a sudden flow out of assets and money from Indonesia. Hence, the value of Rupiah and Baht moved sharply lower and led to a high inflation rate. It also brought about severe unempoyment rate and caused proverty to strike the country.
The recent tax cuts and interest rate cuts have helped put the economy back on track. He says that the strong growth of the U.S. economy in recent months is neither an illusion nor an accident, but it reflects good monetary and fiscal policy over the past year. He says that there has been a key surge in consumer spending, and that the main reason for that surge was the enactment of the tax cut in early 2001. He also stated that the repeated reductions by the Fed in short-term interest rates supported the expansionary effect of the tax cut. Even though the interest rate reductions were not enough to prevent the recession that began in March of last year, the lower interest rates did stimulate consumer spending through a variety of channels.
Here's the scenario: "Recent global developments have pushed the economy into a slump. Industrial production is sluggish and it has become difficult to stimulate demand. The Real GDP is slipping and though inflation looks to be under control, unemployment seems to be soaring. As the Chairman of the Federal Reserve appointed by the President of Oval Office, an effective control of the money supply has to be done.
Interest rates and the effects of interest rates on the economy concern not only macroeconomists but consumers, savers, borrowers, and lenders. A country may react and change their interest rates, according to the prosperity of their economy. Interest rates, is the percentage usually on an annual basis that is paid by the borrower to the lender for a loan of money (Merriam-Webster). If banks decided not to use interest rates, it would be impossible for others to be able to take out loans and therefore, there would be far less spending money in the economy. With interest rates, this allows banks to take a percentage of the consumer’s money and loan it out to others, thus allowing economic growth to be possible. Interest rates also allow lenders to have a “safety net” which is necessary because there is a possibility that the borrower would be unable to pay back a loan to the bank. A nation’s interest rates can be raised or lowered and these shifts in interest rates correlate directly to aggregate demand. Aggregate demand, is the total demand for final goods and services in an economy at a given time (Business Dictionary). A nation uses interest rates for economic growth or to help prevent inflation. When economic growth is needed a nation would lower their interest rates. However, if a country is concerned about inflation, they may choose to raise their interest rates. When interest rates, raised or lowered, will have a negative or positive impact on consumers, and have a positive or negative impact on investors.
When an economy is in a recession the government has to act differently in order to increase demand and help businesses survive. The money supply method of the monetary policy is a good idea in theory but because of the current economic crisis, banks don’t feel secure enough to lend out there money as the return isn’t guaranteed.
There are many factors that affect the economy, inflation is one of them. Basically inflation is risingin priceof general goods and services above a period.As we see value of money is not valuable for the next years due to inflation. Today every country has facing inflationary condition in their economy.GDP deflator is a basictool that tells the price level of final goods and services domestically produced in an economy.GDP is stand for gross domestic product final value of goods and services, Furthermore GDP deflator shows that how much a change in the base year's GDP relies upon changes in the price level. . Inflation in contrast, how speedy the average prices intensity is increases or changes above the period so the inflation rate define the annual percentage rate changes in the level of price is as measure by GDP deflator more over GDP deflator has a advantage on consumer price index because it isn’t only based on a fixed basket of goods and services. It’s a most effective inflation tool to identify the changes in consumer consumption and newly produced goods and service are reflected by this deflator. Consumer price index (CPI) is also measure the adjusting the economic data it can also be eliminate the effects of inflation, through dividing a nominal quantity by price index to state the real quantity in term.
Japan’s rising yen and the decline of the US dollar, East Asia Forum, 2011. Available at: