Critically evaluate the Dividend policy options available to Mullin plc.
Introduction.
In this assignment I will discuss in depth how different dividends policies could affect Mullin plc future prospects, in accordance with the payment or non payment of dividends. Using an analytical approach I will evaluate the dividend policy options available to Mullin plc. I will be primarily focusing on three dividend theories; irrelevant theory, bird in hand theory and Tax preference theory sometimes referred to as clientele theory. Although these theories will be my main focus I may briefly discuss other theories that I feel are relevant to this assignment.
Main body.
Dividend policy is distribution of a portion of a company's earnings, decided by the board of directors, to a class of its shareholders. The dividend is most often quoted in terms of the dollar amount each share receives (dividends per share). It can also be quoted in terms of a percent of the current market price, referred to as dividend yield.
Mullin plc a company which used to pay a dividend of 5 pence per share from 2003-2007 until the financial crisis in 2008 is now at a cross road and trying to decide whether now would be the right time to start paying dividend once again. A theory that will help resolve the company’s current crisis would be the irrelevancy theory.
Irrelevancy theory
Miller and Modigliani 1961 paper states; under certain assumptions and perfect capital markets if few assumptions can be made dividend policy is irrelevant to share value (Corporate Management 3rd Edition) The determinant of the companies value will be shown by how many positive NPV projects are available with the pattern of dividends making no difference to the acceptance of the projects...
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...ained earnings on share price.
Signalling and heading behaviour.
‘Investors behaviour is substantially influenced by social norms and attitudes’ (shiller, 1984) when making decisions investors have to look at uncertainty rather than risk. Knight (1964) tells us they have a lack of conscious judgement and sense of objective evidence.
Social pressures contribute to their judgement of trading activities that logic cannot explain. This links in to heading behaviour which is where firms have a tendency to follow similar decisions from the market leader or as (baker and smith) first declarer of the cash dividend. In turn this can lead smaller firms to signal through the payment of dividend payout about future profitability. Signalling is seen as a good interpretation by investors of management view of which direction the company is heading.
Maximising investor wealth
The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of the article called “Can We Keep Our Promises?” by Robert D. Arnott, and to help better understand the three key risks facing each investor.
Investors are supposed to discount the stream of all future income from the share (using one of a myriad of possible rates - all hotly disputed). Only dividends constitute meaningful income and since few companies engage in the distribution of dividends, theoreticians were forced to deal with "expected" dividends rather than "paid out" ones. The best gauge of expected dividends is earnings. The higher the earnings - the more likely and the higher the dividends. Even retained earnings can be regarded as deferred dividends. Retained earnings are re-invested, the investments generate earnings and, again, the likelihood and expected size of the dividends increase. Thus, earnings - though not yet distributed - were misleadingly translated to a rate of return, a yield - using the earnings yield and other measures. It is as though these earnings WERE distributed and created a RETURN - in other words, an income - to the investor.
DuPont is a very big company with a low debt policy designed to maximize financial flexibility and insulate operations from financial constraints. It is one of the few AAA rated manufacturing companies due its investments are primarily financed from internal sources. However, because prices fell in the 1960’s thus DuPont’s net income fell also. The adverse economic conditions in 1970’s escalated inflation: increase in oil prices increased required inventory investments of the company. 1975 recession negatively affected DuPont’s net income by 33% and returns on capital and earnings per share fell. The company cut dividends in 1974 and working capital investment removed. Proportion of debt increased from 7% in 1972 to 27% in 1975 and interest coverage falls from 38 to 4.6. The company perceived increase in debt temporary but moved quickly to reduce its debt ratio by decreasing capital expenditures. Debt proportion dropped to 20%, interest coverage increased to 11.5 by 1979.
This report will critically review the capital structure of the Royal Mail (RM) and the implications this has for the company with reference to its apparent value and the return required by equity investors. The report will take data from the latest set of accounts published by the RM and it accompanying investor reports. It will also refer to investors analysis and news item in an attempt to gain a qualitative impression of RM’s share value.. The numerical analysis will not use information that relates to time past the last full accounting period, however the conclusion will attempt reconcile any share price movement with the analysis. The report will assess three models for their suitability in analysing the capital structure of the RM, (Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the dividend valuation model).
Dividend Policy: Gainesboro needs to choose a adequate policy with regards to its dividend policy that does not jeopardize its ability to generate future earnings or affect its relationship with its large dividend reliant shareholder base.
The results obtained from the cooperation of Modigliani and Miller in 1958, was an attempt to prove that the financial decisions should not be significant in the perfect conditions of the market, after being published the Modigliani and Miller theory became the main theory of the capital structure. In the M&M theory it suggested that the market is fully efficient, meaning that there are no taxes, however in the theory Modigliani and Miller included the taxes to be able to reflect their theories in reality, and the theory also suggested that there are no bankruptcy costs. There are three propositions that were published by Modigliani and Miller which are: • Proposition 1: A firm’s total market value is independent of its capital structure. Proposition 2: The cost of equity increases with its debt-equity ratio. Proposition 3: A firm’s total market value is independent of its dividend policy.
When discussing the cost of equity capital, or the rate of return required by investors for their share expenses, there are three main models widely used for analyzation. These models are the dividend growth model, which operates on the variable of growth and future trends, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which operates on the premise that higher returns are a result of higher risk, and the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), which has a more flexible set of criteria than CAPM and takes advantage of mispriced securities
Introduction Dividends are the distribution of profits in the company. It depends on the type of dividend policy that is being made by companies. Dividend policy will affect the behaviours and attitudes of investors towards the company. Many economists and financial experts have constructed different theories to interpret the effects of a dividend policy on the society. But these theories are contestable since they are not tested in the real world.
The efficient market, as one of the pillars of neoclassical finance, asserts that financial markets are efficient on information. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that there is no trading system based on currently available information that could be expected to generate excess risk-adjusted returns consistently as this information is already reflected in current prices. However, EMH has been the most controversial subject of research in the fields of financial economics during the last 40 years. “Behavioural finance, however, is now seriously challenging this premise by arguing that people are clearly not rational” (Ross, (2002)). Behavioral finance uses facts from psychology and other human sciences in order to explain human investors’ behaviors.
D’Amato, E. (2010). Australian Shareholders’ Association: Standing Up for shareholders – The top 15 financial ratios. Australia: Lincoln Indicators Pty Ltd.
Every action or proposal needs to balance equity and efficiency needs in order to deliver optimal dividends to its targeted audience. Given the fact that resources are relatively scarce compared to the innumerable needs, businessmen, economists, administrators among other leaders reckon that every proposals needs the equity-efficiency balance in order for set goals and objectives to be achieved. This paper seeks to describe the role of equity and efficiency trade off in proposals.
One reason is that many successful investment ventures itself is the outcome of these ‘irrationality’. Risk-taking, which is inevitable in investment, may contribute to the investors’ better performance than others, while with the assistance of proper training, assessment accuracy can be increased(Palich and Ray Bagby, 1995). Also, if without precedent, most of the newly-invented value-maximising approaches or strategy of investment ought to be considered as crude and unthoughtful, but in reality, they are regarded as innovation(Busenitz and Barney, 1997). Furthermore, there are evidence shows that instead of being the hindrance of correct investment decision-making, those biases and heuristics are backed up by probabilistic information. Accurate statistical probability can be evaluated by our inductive reasoning mechanism with a relatively high possibility(Cosmides and Tooby,
There is a sense of complexity today that has led many to believe the individual investor has little chance of competing with professional brokers and investment firms. However, Malkiel states this is a major misconception as he explains in his book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”. What does a random walk mean? The random walk means in terms of the stock market that, “short term changes in stock prices cannot be predicted”. So how does a rational investor determine which stocks to purchase to maximize returns? Chapter 1 begins by defining and determining the difference in investing and speculating. Investing defined by Malkiel is the method of “purchasing assets to gain profit in the form of reasonably predictable income or appreciation over the long term”. Speculating in a sense is predicting, but without sufficient data to support any kind of conclusion. What is investing? Investing in its simplest form is the expectation to receive greater value in the future than you have today by saving income rather than spending. For example a savings account will earn a particular interest rate as will a corporate bond. Investment returns therefore depend on the allocation of funds and future events. Traditionally there have been two approaches used by the investment community to determine asset valuation: “the firm-foundation theory” and the “castle in the air theory”. The firm foundation theory argues that each investment instrument has something called intrinsic value, which can be determined analyzing securities present conditions and future growth. The basis of this theory is to buy securities when they are temporarily undervalued and sell them when they are temporarily overvalued in comparison to there intrinsic value One of the main variables used in this theory is dividend income. A stocks intrinsic value is said to be “equal to the present value of all its future dividends”. This is done using a method called discounting. Another variable to consider is the growth rate of the dividends. The greater the growth rate the more valuable the stock. However it is difficult to determine how long growth rates will last. Other factors are risk and interest rates, which will be discussed later. Warren Buffet, the great investor of our time, used this technique in making his fortune.
What is the role of investor’s confidence in the financial markets? Why a downgrade of the US treasury sends ripples in the stock markets all over the world .How do investors react to such kind of information? Do we take all the information into account before...
Lepori, G.M. 2009. Dark Omens in the sky: Do Superstitious Beliefs Affect Investment Decisions. Copenhagen: Copenhagen Business School. SSRN. http://papers.ssrn.com/ (assessed February 22, 2011).