A Critical Analysis Of Phillip Cagan's Model Of Money Demands

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In 1956, Phillip Cagan wrote a classic article in which he developed a simple model for money demand. While the aim of Cagan’s article was to develop a theory for hyper-inflation, his model has been used far beyond this original application. Cagan-type money demand functions have become the standard base from which many monetary discussions begin. One such instance of its broader applications is seigniorage. The same year Cagan published his model, Martin Bailey, while at the University of Chicago with Cagan, expanded the Cagan money demand function to assess seigniorage, developing the well-known Bailey Curve (Bailey 1956). From White’s (1999) representation of a Cagan-type money demand function, we see that seigniorage is dependent on a base money demand scalar and the inflation sensitivity of money holders.2 Additionally, we see that raising the required reserve ratio increases both base money demand and inflation sensitivity, shifting the Bailey curve. …show more content…

To the extent that they are allowed, they will hold money in the market as long as the marginal benefit of an additional dollar in the market is greater than the marginal benefit of an additional dollar in reserves (or the binding legal minimum). That is, I assume banks optimize following the equi-marginal principle. This elementary economic insight highlights the fatal assumption of White’s extension of the Bailey Curve. The assumption is: the interest rate paid on deposits is less than the nominal market interest rate (or, at least, the risk-free rate). If this assumption holds, then White’s (1999) analysis holds. And, for most of the Federal Reserve’s history, interest on reserves was fixed at zero while the nominal, risk-free interest rate was above zero. Since 2008, however, the Federal Reserve has begun paying interest on reserves while at the same time pursuing a market rate at or near

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