The black Swan
This book is a philosophical essay on the importance of chance. The author Nassim Nicholas Taleb defends the thesis that the most improbable events always end up coming. This kind of event is called Black Swan. A Black Swan is a random, highly unlikely event that it is difficult to predict and that impacts our lives.
More specifically, according to the author, it meets the following three characteristics: "This is an aberration, its impact is extremely strong and our human nature pushes us to concoct ex post explanations of its occurrence, making it explainable and predictable”
The author speaks of blindness in front of chance, and especially the events that particularly stand out from our expectations. Three parts constitute Taleb’s reasoning:
- An analysis of how to collect historical and current events and distortions inherent in this perception
- A study of mistakes by understanding the future and the limitations of science
- the issue of extreme events and our reference to the Gaussian curve/bell curve.
The book's title refers to the story that before the discovery of Australia, it was thought that all swans, without exception, were white. It is subtitled: The Impact of the highly improbable.
That is what he is mainly talking about but also our blindness to the "Black Swans", these "aberrations" defined as unexpected events because they are very improbable (which have never occurred in the past), and have significant impacts that we explain and try to explain.
According to the author, "Our world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown and the very improbable (improbable according our current knowledge)". Too often, we tend to confuse improbable and impossible, we are locked into patterns of thoughts that d...
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...e forecasters and economists (who are absolutely wrong all the time) considering them as both dishonest and incompetent.
This is an essay that bears its name and which perfectly fulfills its role. Polemical and perhaps even partisan, he exhibits a subjective analysis and personal reflection, and open the debate. He does not pretend to provide demonstrations and can afford the approximation because it is not a scientific treatise or a study. Metaphorical examples are widely used. Even though some themes are already known by people and the readers, the unorthodox way to discuss about it is original and stimulating. This essay also have the merit of being distinguished by a sense of humor, sometimes feisty, with a playful tone that do not detract from its quality, highlighting and confirming what we know: it is not necessary to be boring to talk about serious things.
In Shirley Jackson’s short story the Lottery and Flannery O’Conner’s “A Good Man is Hard to Find”, there are a few aspects of a similar nature that attempt to tackle the nature essence of the human condition. Both short stories respectively portray two similar types of foreshadowing where one is random the other is premeditated, which leads these stories to their very surprising dramatic climax that is held until the end of each story. I believe that these important variables of both stories have a strong influence on the reader’s objectification regarding the way each story presents the idea of the human condition.
The narrator’s prejudice makes him emotionally blind. His inability to see past Robert’s disability stops him from seeing the reality of any relationship or person in the story. And while he admits some things are simply beyond his understanding, he is unaware he is so completely blind to the reality of the world.
By appealing so much to pathos, his letter focuses more on emotionally convincing and persuading the reader to accept his claim, rather than providing facts and logic to his argument. His combined use of logos and ethos also adds an aspect of logic and reason to his argument, as well as further showing his credibility and connection to the subject as the author. His use of the three rhetorical devices helps to bolster and support his claim, while also personalizing and connecting with the
There are many things that can happen when something unbelievable happens. Each person reacts differently to the unusual phenomenon. One way that a person reacts when encountered with an unusual event is by ignoring it. In the second chapter of the novel, Margare...
2. The first reason for this thesis stems from the point of view used in the story. The point of view exemplified is one of third person, more specifically one who is omniscient. The story’s message could not be conveyed from the first person, due to the fact that virtually everyone in the writing at hand is not only unable, but unwilling to figure out the true nature of their surroundings.
.... Recent developments in quantum physics, biology and information science have put us in a position where we question the uniqueness of the causal-mechanical model of science. But these developments, even though sciences based on non-causal concepts might dominate in the culture, would not eradicate the causal way people have viewed the world and themselves, but only relegate the concept of cause to the realm of metaphor, a rhetorical way of putting things. The concept of cause then would no longer be a scientific concept, but would still be alive in the culture. What brings a change in the general worldview then? This would be the question I still have to ask.
In 2007, Odyssey Marine Exploration, a marine treasure hunting company, found a Spanish colonial-era shipwreck while surveying the waters off of Gibraltar for the colonial-era HMS Merchant Royal wreck. Odyssey salvaged the wreck, code-named Black Swan, in secret, recovering 594,000 silver coins estimated to be worth $500 million. After salvaging the coins, Odyssey transported them to the US for auction to the public. The ship was later confirmed to the Nuestra Señora de las Mercedes, a Spanish war frigate sunk by British ships in 1804 after it was blown off course returning from Peru. The Mercedes carried a mostly civil cargo comprising of Peruvian silver and several citizens’ personal cargos. Shortly after Odyssey publicly announced its find,
Disclaimer: This is a highly controversial subject. My response here is simply an attempt to complete the requirements of this academic assignment. My response here does not represent my personal views regarding this controversial subject, and, thus, I should not be held liable for any offense.
Overall, memories does not provide certainty because what we see or remember may not be reality. Also, the way we remember something can be changed throughout time and that memory will eventually fade away. Although certainty is blessing because it provides us warmth, comfort and secure, it is more of a great danger because it gives out false information and tricks our mind into believing something that is not real or true. Therefore, I am fully convinced by Gould’s essay because I completely doubt what people observe or remember since memories does not provide certainty.
...out being ever able to comprehend any thing like connexion between them” (46). He expresses that this conjunction through similar experience is what allows us to relate cause and effect relatively accurately.
Briefly, I would like to analyze some key point before giving my own opinion about what this essay will treat. Thinking about the biological, social
While we live our lives, we often wonder whether the things we do will impact the future; and sometimes, our actions end up for the better and other times, for the worse. This “little-cause big-effect” idea we have is what we call the butterfly effect. Like those speeches organizations give when trying to get you to donate money, the butterfly effect tells us that the things we do at the beginning, even the tiny ones, have an inexpressible impact in the world later in time. In fact, the butterfly effect lives up to its name pretty well. Its discovery lead to the popularization of the Chaos Theory, the loss of the true message from its discoverer, and a impact in the way weather is forecasted and the entertainment world. In this sense, the
The book The Black Swan: The Impact of the HIGHLY IMPROBABLE, written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb; introduces the idea(s) of the black swan theory. The term black swan theory is a metaphor used to describe an event that comes as a surprise and has a major effect. Assumptions were all swans were white, however they are not as there was a rare discovery of black swans in Western Australia in 1697, by a Dutch explorer. Taleb, the author of this book is also the founder of the Black Swan Theory as he uses his background in philosophy and mathematics to describe randomness and uncertainty in society and everyday life.
For instance, when 9/11 happened we all looked back at those things where we realized there were so many factors where we did not realized or overlooked. That is one of example