The Demographic Transition Model or Population Cycle

The Demographic Transition Model or Population Cycle

Stage 1 - High birth rate and high death rate

When birth rate and death rate are birth high (about 35 per 1000) then

the natural increase is very low, giving only a small population

growth or no change at all. Examples of populations at Stage 1 are

rare today because of the spread of modern medicines and new farming

techniques. Perhaps only a few remote tribes in the Amazon forest,

which have little contact with the outside world, are still in Stage

1. The UK was at Stage 1 before the Industrial Revolution up to about

1750.

Reasons for a high death rate include:

1. Diseases such as Cholera and Bubonic Plague.

2. Famine and Malnutrition.

3. Lack of clean water and sewerage facilities.

4. Lack of medical care and drugs.

Stage 2 - The birth rate remains high and the death rate begins to

fall

At the start of stage 2 both birth rate and death rate remains high.

Reasons for a high birth rate are:

1. Economic - many children mean more workers in the field.

2. Social - No birth control or family planning. Couples have large

families in the hope that a few will survive childhood. More

children to support the parents in old age. Children are regarded

as a sign of virility in some cultures.

3. Political - Governments in Muslim and Catholic countries

encourage large families and do not provide much education about

family planning.

During stage 2 the birth rate remains high but the death rate starts

to fall to about 20 per 1000 people. By the end of this stage there is

a large difference between the birth rate and the death rate. This

gives a high natural increase and a rapid growth in population live.

This results from: