Presidential Candidates Scenarios

Theory:
The final 2 candidates will be Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. The republican party will chose Marco Rubio as the GOP nominee.
Reasoning:
Marco Rubio has a combination of endorsements (43 points), super PAC funding ($38.4 million) and public support (avg. 12.6%). He has electability, experience in politics, and appeals to both conservative and establishment republicans.
If it were up to the people, Ted Cruz would be the nominee. He is leading in most Iowa polls. He’s a favorite of the people, which is why he will be one of the final candidates.
The reason Trump isn’t a serious candidate, despite his high polling results, is because he isn’t backed by the republican party. He has no endorsements, no super PAC funding, and no backing from

The party has gone against public opinion before when choosing a nominee, but it’s highly unlikely that they will chose someone with such a low rating.
Data:
The table below shows the approval rating of every candidate depending on the source and location; Iowa vs. New Hampshire. I have not used any national data because according to multiple sources, including fivethirtyeight.com, national polls before primaries are generally inaccurate. This is due to the fact that primaries and caucuses take place at different times depending on the state. Since Iowa and New Hampshire are the first to caucus/vote, they have a significant impact on who will be the GOP

If those happen to be less correlated with party support than anticipated, my theory becomes far less accurate.
My theory could potentially be rendered irrelevant by the fact that I don’t use national polling data. My theory is based mostly on the predicted outcomes of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, along with endorsements and fundraising reports.
Discounted Data:
I have ruled out media mentions frequency as relevant data because media coverage is not correlated with election outcomes. Just because Donald Trump is talked about the most doesn’t mean he is likely to win. Mentioning his name could be for any number of reasons. Lots of people are upset with his outrageous and bigoted campaign platform, therefore lots of sources are reporting on it and mentioning his name. It has little to do with how the primaries will turn