Essay On Convergence Hypothesis

639 Words2 Pages

Bernard and Durlauf (1995), applying cross-section and time-series data set for different types of economies for the analysis of convergence hypothesis. Economic growth strongly predicted by Solow model using exogenous technological change, capital deepening and short-run concave production opportunities, provides evidence regarding behavior of economies over time. The analysis shows that how economies, in the long-run, converge to the balance growth, irrespective of the initial capital endowments. The new growth theory contradicts with the statement of above convergence, hence divergence occurred, but again both theorists try to stress the convergence hypothesis by applying the tests of convergence. The cross-section test shows negative correlation between initial per capita income and growth rate, implies convergence. Cross-section generally reject the no convergence null for advanced economies, instead time series accepted no convergence null for large range of data set. Hence, time series test is stricter notion of convergence than cross-section test, also in terms of making assumptions. Andrew et al. (2008), employed country level data for the sample period of 1970-1998, also used 3058 cross-sectional observations for United States. The purpose was to analyze β-convergence and σ-convergence, for which convergence hypothesis stressed. Many of the economists argued that β-convergence is necessary but not the sufficient condition for σ-convergence, but least of them showed interest in σ-convergence. Applying 3SLS estimation method, results shows that β-convergence is statistically significant across the United States and many of its individual states, implying strong β-convergence. The null hypothesis for United States an... ... middle of paper ... ...e (HI) and low initial income and low growth (LILG) is not consistent with convergence process, due to the fact that former has already achieved steady state and the later yet not approached convergence. The coefficient of convergence is not significant for low initial income and high growth (LIHG), hence weak evidence. The reason may be of, time-lag in, the diffusion of technology from developed to developing countries, causing a big hindrance. Huang (2005), used pooled data averaged over the period of 1960s, 1970s and 1980s for the analysis of 86 countries, including 258 observations. Applying the regression tree and flexible non-linear approaches, result explains the strong evidence of cross-country growth regression but not for multiple steady-states. The countries in different regimes may attain different steady-state equilibria due to varied state variables.

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