Probabilistic reasoning is difficult. People prefer to reject ambiguity and demand that concrete predictions be made. However, intelligence is inherently ambiguous. In intelligence forecasting, it is difficult to determine what information constitutes a signal, and what constitutes noise. In “Connecting the Dots: The Paradoxes of Intelligence Reform”, Malcolm Gladwell analyzes several high-profile “intelligence failures”, such as the Yom Kippur War, September 11th, Pearl Harbor, and the Bay of Pigs fiasco, as well as several psychological studies, and comes to the conclusion that: (1) there is no such thing as a perfect intelligence system - all systems require tradeoffs; (2) failures do not constitute the limitations of the intelligence community, …show more content…
intelligence agencies in anticipating the events of September 11th. Journalists and politicians alike analyzed events of the decades preceding the September 11th attacks and came to the conclusion that there was a clear and recurring pattern of events that was overlooked by the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. In their book “The Cell”, authors John Miller, Michael Stone, and Chris Mitchell connect a series of dots, including the murder of a rabbi in 1990, an assassination plot against the pope, and the detonation of a cargo truck in Nairobi, to indicate the failures of US intelligence agencies in understanding the threat Al Qaeda posed. One of the key facts the authors pointed out was an exchange between Italian intelligence and a member of Al Qaeda, where the informant told the agents, regarding a terrorist plot, “It is something terrifying that goes from south to north, east to west. The person who devised this plan is a madman, but a genius. He will leave them frozen [in shock].” The authors determine that this is clearly a reference to the September 11th attacks. Gladwell pushes back, arguing that this hardly a forecast - barely any usable intelligence is provided. While the authors of “The Cell” believe they have unambiguously fit the pieces of puzzle together, in the real world, intelligence is ambiguous. As Gladwell states, this information …show more content…
One of the main failures of law enforcement and intelligence agencies identified by both the authors of “The Cell” and Senator Richard Shelby was that the F.B.I. and C.I.A. acted in competition with one another to produce results, as opposed to in centralized collaboration. Gladwell points out that the intelligence community was structured in this manner in response to the failures of the Bay of Pigs operation, which had been based on highly centralized intelligence gathering. In turn, the structure of intelligence agencies at the time of the Bay of Pigs was in response to the failure of decentralized intelligence to identify the threat of an attack on Pearl Harbor. The iterative cycle of intelligence failures and subsequent reform efforts ignores the premise that the failures do not represent evidence of the limitations of intelligence agencies, but rather the limitations of intelligence itself. As Gladwell states, “in our zeal to correct what we believe to be the problems of the past, we end up creating new problems for the
Clay Dillow’s “To Catch a Bombmaker” was published by Popular Science in October 2015. This article educated the reader about the FBI’s Terrorist Explosive Device Analytical Center— a key aspect in the fight against terrorism. Dillow focused on ethos and logos to strengthen the validation of his claim concerning the importance of the TEDAC and was successful in persuading the reader to believe in its significance as well. He used expert quotes from FBI agents to give the article credibility; In addition, he presented statistical data in a clear and concise manner and gave many factual cases in which the TEDAC facilitated the government in their pursuit of terrorist and bomb makers. As proven by Dillow in “How to Catch a Bombmaker,” the Terrorist
Guilford, CT: Dushkin/ McGraw-Hill, 1997. Chiatkin, Anton. A. Treason in America. Washington DC: Executive Intelligence. Review, a review of the book, Divine, Breen, Frederickson, and Williams. America Past and Present.
Snap judgements are those immediate conclusions we make when we meet someone for the first time or experience something new or different. Many of us make snap judgements every single day of our lives without even being conscious of it. In fact, it only takes us a couple seconds to decide whether we like something or not. Snap judgements are a mental process we all do unconsciously. According to our class reading “Blink” by Malcom Gladwell, Gladwell states that most of us have experienced snap judgments, but we feel like we should not trust it. Snap judgements are not always precise but Gladwell believes we should ignore these odds and trust our snap judgements.
In this paper, I will do a case study on the Bay of Pigs and why the United States tried to conduct this attack. I will find out what intelligence led to this invasion attempt as well as what intelligence failures were made which resulted in the failure of the invasion. I will discuss what impact the Bay of Pigs had on the United States Intelligence community and what changes was made. I will end this paper with any findings I have concluded to if the failure has any affect on how the U.S. conducts intelligence in today’s world.
Malcom Gladwell, is an author of numerous New York Times Best Sellers, who uses several techniques in his writing to clarify and support his argument. Gladwell’s techniques are using stories to appeal to the reader’s emotions. Using scientific facts and research to logically strengthen his argument. Also, writing about controversial issues to establish credibility with the readers. These techniques are found in “Offensive Play”, “Small Change”, and “Harlan, Kentucky”, works by Gladwell.
Nowadays, snap judgment can be more authentic than the considered one. In the book named Blink, Malcolm Gladwell provides several examples of what he calls “thin-slicing,” which is using the minimal information to make a quick conclusion or judgment about certain situations or people’s characteristics. In the introduction of the book, Gladwell gives an example of J. Paul Getty Museum’s purchase of a sculpture, which later turns out to be a forgery. The museum buys the Kouros after 14 months on investing; however, after displaying the statue, experts express the abnormal of it and later find out that the sculpture is fake. In addition, the author introduces the idea of “thin-slicing” by mentioning the experiments that psychologist John Gottman
Weiner, Tim. Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA. New York: Doubleday, 2007. Print.
...e community have had conflicting views and opposing agendas. Lack of cooperation and communication between intelligence agencies; such as the FBI and the CIA refusing to share information prior to the terrorist attacks of 2001, resulted in limited information and failure on the part of the intelligence community and policy decisions regarding US safeguards against terrorist.
Nedzi (D-Mich.), Luclen N. “Oversight or Overlook: Congress and the US Intelligence Agency.” A Congressman talk to the CIA senior seminar, November 14, 1979, https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/vol18no2/pdf/v18i2a02p.pdf (accessed January 7, 2014).
The duration of his actions is reported to have gone on longer; and been more damaging, than any other act of espionage in the history of the United States. (Fenton, 2001) Through an extensive investigation and the tireless effort by counterintelligence agents, Robert Hanssen was eventually captured and sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole. This paper will examine Robert Hanssen’s background, the threats and indicators, the role CI agents played in investigating and capturing Hanssen, and an assessment of the outcome. Who was Robert Hanssen?
Technology has had a negative impact on this generation- we have lost and forgotten many things because of it. In Malcolm Gladwell’s “Small Change: Why the Revolution Will Not Be Tweeted”, he discusses the difference between social media activism and “real” activism and the loss of human connection that he has identified. He believes that with social media activism, we lack the connections a community should have because we don’t get together in person- we are satisfied with being connected through technology. He also thinks that as time goes on, we will only get worse when referring to the ideas that we are delusional because the issues we fight about (such as getting phones taken away) aren’t as important as we think.
“People don't rise from nothing....It is only by asking where they are from that we can unravel the logic behind who succeeds and who doesn't”(Gladwell 18).
The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell looks at a number of social epidemics and analyzes their build up to the point where they tip. “Tipping” is that point where an epidemic booms, or grows, to its maximum potential. Gladwell begins defining “tipping” with a literal example of the famous shoes, Hush Puppies. Once considered old-fashioned, Hush Puppies experienced a social boom in the mid-90s when hipsters in New York made them trendy again. Gladwell continues explaining “tipping” with a medical epidemic of syphilis in Baltimore. Gladwell introduces us to three essential rules of epidemics: the Law of the Few, the Stickiness Factor and the Power of Context. The Law of the Few says a key factor in epidemics is the role of the messenger: it spreads through word-of-mouth transmission. Gladwell explains this theory with an example of how Paul Revere managed to spread the news of British invasion overnight. Gladwell continues to explain that there are several types of people that create these types of epidemics. They are called Connectors, Mavens and Salesmen. Connectors are those people that are very social and can literally connect with people with as little as two degrees of separation. Mavens are those that know a lot about a lot of different things. They may recommend a certain restaurant and you must go because you know what they told you about it is true. And Salesmen are exactly that: people that are easily social and persuading.
Malcolm Gladwell’s “Troublemakers” is an article in which he explores the way societies make generalizations. Malcolm explains how Ontario has banned pit bulls due to a boy being attacked and people viewing that one example to be enough to distinguish all pit bulls as vicious and bloodthirsty. He goes on to employ that all dogs even resembling pit bulls or that have some pit bull mixed into them have been banned as well, because anything that looks like a pit bull has now been deemed dangerous for the people in that society. Not only does Malcolm point out other ways societies generalize people, like racial profiling a terrorist, but he distinguishes how steps could have been taken to eliminate the threat of the pit bull but it seemed to just
Tidd, J. M. (2008). From revolution to reform: A brief history of U.S. intelligence. The SAIS