Got Those OPEC Blues Again And Rational Exuberance

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“Got those OPEC Blues Again” and “Rational Exuberance” SUMMARY Since March of 1999, when the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $13 a barrel, we have seen a steady increase in prices in all phases of the economy. OPEC, the organization that is largely responsible for setting production goals in the Middle East, was under fire to find ways to increase prices. OPEC members at this time “pledged to cut back the supply of crude and push oil prices higher.” (Business Week, 48) The results were better than most expected: crude oil prices were almost $27 a barrel on November 23, 1999, the highest price since the 1991 Gulf War. (Business Week, 48) The demand for oil is outpacing current supply by 2.8 million barrels, causing some in Congress to push for relief by tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. (Business Week, 49) The rapid increases in prices have had a welcome effect on “Big Oil”, however. Companies such as BP Amoco, Chevron and Royal/Dutch Shell Group have posted 15% increases in earnings (Business Week, 49) This trend is expected to continue, with L Bruce Lanni, an analyst at CIBC World Markets Inc. noting, “I see clear sailing ahead for the next two to three years.” (Business Week, 49) “Happy days are here again!” This quote, noted by Jodie Allen of U.S. News and World Report, refers to the booming U.S. economy. (Allen, 71) The stock market, as of November 8, 1999 was flying high, posting strong gains, prompting inflationary fears and a hard once-over of the situation by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. However, the numbers are extraordinary. The Gross Domestic product surged at an annual rate of 4.8% in the third quarter of 1999. The employment cost index, which measures total compensation paid to workers in a broad sampling of jobs, rose by 3.1 percent over the past 12 months. (Allen, 71) But, cautions Princeton economist Alan blinder, “this is a change in the measurement system, not in the reality.” (Allen, 71) Still, he concedes, “the underlying reality was looking good even in the older data.” (Allen, 71) Even in this seemingly booming economy, Greenspan warns “It is not clear” whether interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve has already made will suffice to prevent overheating of the economy (Allen, 71) APPLICATION In the case of OPEC’s decision to cut supply to raise prices, it is clear that all sectors of the economy will be affected in some way.

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