Weather Forecasting is Still an Imperfect Science

Weather Forecasting is Still an Imperfect Science

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Weather Forecasting is Still an Imperfect Science

Despite the increase in meteorological technology combined with the
advanced skills of well-educated humans, weather forecasting is
nevertheless inaccurate at times. However it is not solely due to
factors such as inadequate technology or expert negligence towards
observation and data interpretation. The weather is a phenomenally
active and unpredictable, often astounding even the most knowledgeable
of meteorologists for example when El Nino occurs; yet the
significance of weather forecasting is imperative for industry,
agriculture and commerce.

The fact that weather forecasting can be regarded as an imperfect
science is a most controversial statement, as it is inevitable that
with three key areas that must be accounted for in order to make a
sound prediction the misinterpretation of one section may cause the
entire accuracy of the prediction is jeopardised. These three main
processes attributed to weather forecasting are; observation, analysis
of data, and preparation for the forecast provided by the computers.
It is proven that the weather patterns during different minor weather
events are fairly repetitive yet not completely identical.

Modern day advances in the global weather predictions, have proven to
be able to collect information to the remotest of places through use
of satellites,, ships, land stations, drifting buoys etc. This has
undoubtedly saved a number of lives, and is undeniably the most
advanced in history, therefore it is unfair to claim that weather
forecasting is an imperfect science.

In cases of extreme weather such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and
tsunamis, the degree of accuracy is far more reliable. The Doppler
Radar enables meteorologists to follow the pathways of hazardous
weather conditions including tornadoes (particularly in America) and
warn the inhabitants of a particular danger zone, which gives people a
better chance of evacuating and more importantly surviving. In this
sense accusing weather forecasting as being deficient is a
misconception, yet predicting recent weather e.g. next day is often
difficult due to sudden changes.

One significant event that occurred in Southeast England was the
October hurricane of 1987.

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This was largely blamed on Michael Fish who
on public television announced that there was no sign of a hurricane,
when shortly after one of the worst hurricanes recorded broke out
killing 18 people and totally devastating landscape, buildings,
businesses, home etc. This was such a terrifying incident, people
began to distrust and lose faith in the weather predictions that
followed; thus deeming weather forecasting an imperfect science.
Arguably it could have be a freak occurrence overlooked by computer
technology, or a group of individuals, yet technology has radically
improved since then, so it is hard to condemn the Meteorologists of
today inefficient.

To summarise, it is unquestionable that modern technological equipment
such as the Doppler Radar, satellites and computers, has given much
more authenticity and accuracy to weather forecasting. However it can
be foreseen that we are not totally meticulous when the prediction of
everyday weather events is concerned, and much knowledge is still to be gained.
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