The Effects of the Ageing Population on the British Welfare State

Introduction

Since the year 1800, the global population has grown from one billion to the estimated current population of 6.5 billion. By the year 2070 the world’s population is expected to continue to grow to 10 billion people. The major increase in population has occurred in the past 50 years, and based upon the United Nations (2007) estimates and projections up to the year 2050, it is believed that the population burst experienced worldwide over the past half century will have slowed down in the northern and contemporary countries, whereas the population will continue to increase in less developed countries and southern nations. While the large population is taxing enough on the already fragile economic markets of the United Kingdom, the fact that this population is rapidly ageing and will rely heavily on the British Welfare State is of concern. Through the examination and use of both printed and online sources, the population trends and their causes are presented, and the impact on, and implications for, the British welfare state are discussed.

1- Population Trends

In Britain and the rest of Europe, the population is forecasted to decline (Appendix A) with two noticeable trends focusing on the increase of the elderly, as well as the decrease in youth and people of working age.

1.1- The Ageing Population

According to a BBC news report (2011), the number of individuals over the age of sixty could rise by 40% in the next thirty years. The office of National Statistics (2009) has on record that from 1984 - 2009 there has been a one percent increase in the elderly, which equals roughly to 1.7 million. The biggest increase seems to appear in the aged 85+ category. Since 1983, the number of people in this category has doub...

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...jor economic shortfall due to low fertility and mortality rates. Though there are several objectives that could be implemented, such as increasing worker productivity and growth, all possible improvements will still require a heavier amount of taxation and reduction in public spending and will rely upon the rapidly failing health of the general population. Possible solutions to this significant problem are delaying the retirement age, increasing working hours, allowing for increased migration and the privatization of health services. However, every one of these ideas will likely be met with heavy resistance. If the youth and working population does not save more for their retirement, and prepare for the future, the economic fallout of the ageing population will be a worse crisis than that of the 2007-2008 financial crises and, possibly, even the Great Depression.