Alternatively, investments could be made to accommodate the increase in jobs in the Melbourne Inner area. Listed below are different potential scenarios for Melbourne to accommodate this job growth. However, as discussed above, agglomeration economies are not simply about journeys to work, but rather easier interactions and mobility as part of a business’s operations and interactions with customers and suppliers.
3.2.2. Potential scenarios
Three potential scenarios are examined, one with a different emphasis; public transport, road transport and bicycle transport.
As can be seen in Table 4, Table 5 and Table 6, all scenarios include an increase in absolute numbers of trips if the job growth is to occur. However, the different emphases lead to very different outcomes. For public transport to have a 70% mode share of journeys to work, this requires an increase of nearly 90,000 (64%) journeys to work over the current level. Even with the Melbourne Metro project this seems problematic. A large increase in journeys by bus would appear to be the only way to accommodate this number by public transport. This could conceivably maintain public transport’s mode share but in order to increase it in the public transport scenario then more radical ideas would need to be implemented such as massive investment in bus transport and prioritisation such as has occurred Curitiba, Brazil (Lindau et al., 2010). However, public transport prov...
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By accommodating job growth through increased transport provision through a focus on bicycle infrastructure, productivity improvements have the potential to be significantly higher than the range of 3.5% (SGS, 2012) to 5.8% (Graham, 2007). With a bicycle infrastructure focussed scenario these figures would range from 5 – 8% due to the increased general productivity, increased alertness, reduced sick days, better decision making and fewer task errors. In addition to this would be the savings from public health benefits.
4.1. Further Research
4.1.1. Cycling and Gender
Numerous studies suggest female participation in cycling is more dependent on their level of risk aversion and alternative household roles and responsibilities than men. Observed behaviour studies (Garrard et al., 2008) as well as stated preference studies (Emond et al. 2009) identified an increased
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