A probability model is a mathematical representation of a random phenomenon occurring. Probability is the study of long term behavior of random events in which outcomes cannot be predicted. During the experiment in the long run, patterns of outcomes emerge. A probability model includes its sample space, events that occur in the sample space, and possibilities associated with each event. When two events are independent there is no correlation of one event occurring for another event to occur. The first event does not influence the outcome of the second. This can be seen in the example of flipping a coin. When a coin is flipped and lands on heads three times determining which outcome will occur on the fourth flip would be an assumption. Just because the coin landed three times on heads does not mean that the fourth coin flip will land on heads. Actually, the chances of either event, (heads or tails), occurring is 50% or 0.5 or ½.
In the sample space of tossing two fair dice there we gather 36 different permutations. In sample space we can identify distinct events within the 36 permutations. One distinct event is having an outcome of two fair dices that have an outcome in which two dices sum are factors of 4. The outcomes that have factors of 4 are, (A, C), (B, B), (C, A), (D, D), (F, B), (B, F), (E, C), and (C, E). There are 8 summed permutations that equal 4. In the event of two fair dice being thrown would be an 8/36 chance, which is simplified as 2/9, which is 22% chance of receiving an outcome with the factor of 4. A second event is receiving an outcome of both dice receiving an outcome of both dices landing on a number less than 3. In the outcomes of this distinct event we have (A, A1), (A, B), (B, A), and (B, B1). We have a total of four outcomes in this distinct event. There is a 4/36, which is simplified as 1/9, or 11% chance of receiving an outcome where both independent dice are less than 3. Both
Probability is important for a stage in the study of treatments for many dread diseases. If a drug is being researched in its developmental stage, researchers calculate the maximum tolerated dose, whereas the dose has more toxic effects rather than health benefits.
“Animals of different ages, sexes, developmental stages, and of different health status can all respond differently to experimental treatments. It is no surprise, then, that humans respond differently to administered pharmaceuticals than other animals” (Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine).Thalidomide being the most well known example was a drug sold between 1957 and 1961 and was marketed towards pregnant women and was said to relieve morning sickness, stress and to help them sleep. The drug was tested thoroughly on mice, with no ill eff...
Chance. 50/50. 1:2. Odds. These terms are familiar in gambling. Bet it all give it a shot. Is it worth the consequences? Are the problems worth the rewards? Imagine a gamble between life and death, war and peace. Would it be worth the destruction to have your way? What would you do to keep a competitor out of the game? Going neck and neck to find a way around combat. Would the world be the same? What would happen if you lost? When tension between World War II grows, a gamble for nuclear arms rises, becoming the cold war.
While both cancer treatment and chemoprevention trials involve agents that can cause side effects in individuals, chemoprevention trials diverge from treatment trials with respect to the unit of potential benefit. In trials of cancer treatment or of “adjuvant therapies” (secondary prevention), subjects either hav...
Introduction to the basic concepts of probability and statistics with discussion of applications to computer science.
First we are going to talk about probability theory, which has to do with mathematics and analysis of random phenomena. You are probably used to putting the number of outcomes over the total amount of the object or total amount what you have. An example is, if you have a normal dice and you want the probability of rolling an odd number, you would take the total amount of odd numbers (3) and put that over the total (6) amount of numbers on the dice like so 3/6 which you can also reduce it to ½ because 3 is half of 6. This theory has been around since the sixteenth century and started off as the outcome you would get in a game, which was created by Pierre de Fermat, Blaise Pascal and Gerolamo Cardano. Later on in the seventeenth century Christiaan Huygens published a book on the subject.
The National Research Council in the United States has expressed its vision of “a not-so-distant future in which virtually all routine toxicity testing would be conducted in human cells or cell lines”, and science leaders around the world have reaffirmed this view. The sequencing of the human genome and birth of functional genomics, the explosive growth of computer power and computational biology, and high-speed robot automation of cell-based screening systems, to name a few, has sparked a quiet revolution in biology. Together, these innovations have produced new tools and ways of thinking that can help uncover exactly how chemicals and drugs disrupt normal processes in the human body at the level of cells and molecules. From there, scientists can use computers to interpret and integrate this information with data from human and population level studies. The resulting predictions regarding human safety and risk are potentially more relevant to people in the real world than animal tests. The wider field of human health research could benefit from a similar shift in theory. Many disease areas have seen little or no progress despite decades of animal research. Some 300 million people currently suffer from asthma, yet only two types of
I calculated three probabilities in Benchmark 2. I did this in one way I used the same way for all three, but all three scenarios were different. For the first scenario there was one action play, one sound device, one conic device that repels zombies and one work schedule. To find the probability of this outcome I had to times the conic device and the sound device’s fraction together because they're the same. The fractions are 13/100. After I multiplied this fraction I added all three of the fractions together, which were16910,000+829+425. Adding all of these together I got .45276, which gives us a 45% chance of survival for this example. For the second example I took two action plans, one sound device, one conic device that hides you from
As we discussed above that pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics can be seen as two sides of the same coin in order to gain better understanding of their efficacy and safety profiles.” Generally it is possible to make fairly robust predictions of the pharmacokinetic profile in man using in vitro systems and preclinical pharmacokinetic studies. A previously published survey on the causes of failure in drug development indicated that inappropriate pharmacokinetics were a major cause such as; factors as low bioavailability due to high extraction or poor absorption characteristics, short elimination half-life leading to short duration of action and excessive variability due to genetic or environmental factors. This observation has led to an increased emphasis on pharmacokinetic input to the drug discovery process throughout the pharmaceutical industry. However, it is important to realise that this may only permit the rejection of compounds to b...
Imagine having a headache and not having aspirin to take, or being diabetic and not being able to take certain types of insulin (Williams 3). It seems impossible that these drugs could be unavailable to humans, but they would not be attainable had scientists not tested these drugs on non-animal subjects. Contrary to what many people believe, testing drugs on animals often give defective results. “More than 205,000 new drugs are marketed worldwide every year, most undergo the most archaic and unreliable testing methods still in use: animal studies” (PETA 1). Although animals may seem the like ideal specimens for testing new drugs, the experiments are untrustworthy and can cause unknown side effects.
outlines the benefits and risk reported in the tested population. For a drug to be approved by
Reinarman, Craig and Peter D. A. Cohen and Hendrien L. Kaal. “The Limited Relevance of Drug
The law of probability, follows a random walk for which past event or pattern have no influence to predict the outcome yet under the concept of gambler’s fallacy , an individual predicts the outcome of a certain random event with negative auto correlation , meaning an individual under the influence of gambler’s fallacy would believe that the same outcome of an event is less likely to
The ABC model is used to show how beliefs cause emotional and behavioral reactions. A, or activating event is what happened to you, what your “camera” saw. B, or beliefs about the activating event, is what you tell yourself when the event happened. C, the consequences, is how you feel and how you act based upon your beliefs. An example of this would be A, you are falsely accused of stealing from your school and you may be expelled from school. Because of this you believe, B, I need to defend myself, I cannot forfeit my education. So C, You feel anxious and scared.
In light of the findings of the study, the pharmacokinetic parameters of this drug would v...
...p results that tell us more about how humans will react to a medicine or cosmetic product.