Dahal 's blindness to the apparent facts is baffling. He needs 396 votes out of 595 in the parliament to approve his proposal, which he does not have, even if all his coalition partners stick with him.
Here is the math. The UML and other parties which have 200 members are openly opposing the amendment. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party, a coalition partner with 27 members, has made it clear it would not support the amendment.
Besides, the Madheshi parties, with around 18 seats, have said they would support the amendment only with further concessions, without mentioning what.
It gets even more complex for Dahal. Some leaders of his own party have openly opposed the amendment in full or part. The Nepali Congress Party, the largest coalition partner, has the same problem.
Dahal has refused to see this simple math, which a five-year-old child can tell.
Why? Enter India. Dahal has been pushing the amendment to please India, which has directly and overtly supported it. The Indian ambassador in Kathmandu recently invited Madheshi leaders to the embassy and pressed them to support it.
What could then be Indian motivation? Security and economic interests that go beyond the soft corner for the Madheshi parties.
India has tried to weave Nepal inextricably in its security and economic fabric at least since it became independent from Britain. First came the 1950 treaty, which established common security interest and granted equal rights to each other 's citizens in residence, trade, contr...
... middle of paper ...
...rst amendment went through early this year because no one raised the constitutional issue.
But this time, the UML has placed the matter front and center, and the Supreme Court is hearing cases in this regard. If the court sticks to the letter of the constitution, the amendment would be impossible without fulfilling the due process.
Against this background, we should not trust those political pundits and partisans that blame some parties and some leaders, and not others. The issues on the table are complex and delicate, and they cannot be resolved without concessions and compromises from all sides.
The solution must be found to hold the elections, due in a little more than a year, and avert constitutional crisis. It can be found if Prime Minister Dahal removes his blindfold and opens his mind. Otherwise, he will fall off the precipice, taking the country with him.
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