Essay on Precipitation: Mapping the Precipitations in Different Parts of Iran

Essay on Precipitation: Mapping the Precipitations in Different Parts of Iran

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Precipitation is a research subject within the scientific communities and there have been vast projects designed and implemented through the world and in Iran because it has the highest importance amongst other climatic entities. This situation needs a basic investigation ofn mapping the precipitations in different parts of the country as well as awareness of which factors are affecting precipitation intensities and how to control them. Precipitation varies with regard to the climatic and geographical changes. In fact precipitation is the most sensitive climatic factor depending on amounts of evaporations and any other geographical/environmental changes. This could affect the amounts, the times and the types of precipitations which, in turns, results in the superiority of this technique to predict the periodic changes in precipitation. Because of unpredicted variations in the amount of the precipitations, correct modeling and forecasting would be truly complicated. One of the methods of modeling data is classical time series models (Several methods have been developed for modeling time series data like precipitation, including auto-regressive (AR), moving-average (MA), AR moving-average (ARMA) and AR integrated moving-average (ARIMA) ). In this model, the correlated data will be used and it is limited to forecasting temporary changes. (However, these techniques are not to be able to deal with non-stationary time series.) Therefore, it would be necessary to implement updated models with higher capacities. In recent years, many progressive techniques are introduced as new tools for modeling and amongst them a technique needs to be chosen for better operation (In this regard, recently soft computing techniques including support vect...

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... the SVM method is showing less error in classifying precipitations of any rainy days with no rain, low rain, and the average raining, but in predicting, ANN method is showing less root mean square error. Yoon et al. (2011) (Yoon et al., 2011) compared SVM and ANN for modeling lake level fluctuations concluded that SVM works better than ANN. Çimen et al. (2009) (Çimen and Kisi, 2009) also in their studies to compare SVM and ANN techniques for predicting lake water levels and groundwater levels concluded that SVM is superior to ANN.
The goal of this study is to compare two of the more promising and frequently used soft computing techniques, namely SVM and ANN in modeling the monthly precipitations. Therefore, both techniques were applied to estimate the precipitations in the central area of Hamadan state, west of Iran and the results were compared with each other.

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