Money supply, inflation and exchange rates
In brief, an upward movement in the volume of money supply causes the cost of borrowing, which is also the interest rate to move downwards. Basically, this is because there will be excess money in circulation in the economy than is required. Subsequently, households will save the surplus money in the banks in order to take advantage of the high interest rate bearing securities. Following this increase in volume of money supply, pressure is exerted on the cost of borrowing, which will move downwards up to a new equilibrium state. This new state of equilibrium will indicate a lower interest rate. It is important to note that, since the cost of borrowing moves downwards, borrowers find it cheap to borrow and therefore mark an increase in the amount borrowed (Hornle, 2008).
Under these situations, expansionary money policy leads to an increase of aggregate income. The effectiveness, however, strongly depends on the reaction of investment to the change in the cost of borrowing. If investment does not increase sufficiently even with low interest...
When interest rates on loans are high, this leaves people with less disposable income resulting in less consumer spending. Depending on where the economy stands, this can be good or bad, as it would lead toward recession. But that may be exactly what is intended in order to decrease spending if the economy is currently experiencing over-inflation. The government may intentionally send the market into a recession rather than potentially risking too high levels of inflation. On the other hand, if the economy were already in recession this would only make the recession worse. In the situation where the economy is currently in recession, the government is instead going to change the overnight rate in order to therefore lower interest rates on loans in order to provoke consumer
Classical economist’s theory of monetary policy was thought to only affect prices and wouldn’t affect truly important factors such as employment. It was a major concern that if the government was to finance its’ spending only by increasing how much money was produced then it would have the same out come as expansionary monetary policy.
Before starting to explain inflation it is necessary first to define it. Inflation can be described as a positive rate of growth in the general price level of goods and services. It is measured as a percentage increase over time in a price index such as the GDP deflator or the Retail Price Index. The RPI is a basket of over six hundred different goods and services, weighted according to the percentage of how much household income they take up. There are two measurements of this: the headline rate (includes all the items in the basket) and the underlying rate (RPIX) which excludes mortgage interest payments. It is the RPIX which is used more often in this country, as a feature of the UK when compared to the rest of Europe is a very high proportion of owner/occupier homeowners. This means that many people have mortgages, and as such, changes in interest rates (to control inflation) can artificially raise the headline rate.
This article talks about the Fed decreasing the discount rate to stimulate the economy. The discount rate is the rate of interest the Fed charges for loans it makes to banks. An increase in the discount or interest rates makes it more expensive for banks to borrow from the Fed. A discount rate decrease makes it less expensive for banks to borrow. This article is talking about how the Fed decreased the discount rate making it easier for banks to borrow, increasing the money supply. The decrease in the discount rate increases the money supply because it lowers the bank=s costs and allows it to borrow more money from the Fed.
...come worse off. That is due to the reason that an increase in the level of interest rate leads to a relatively smaller current consumption, since borrowing from the future is not the ideal solution because it has become more expensive than before. Generally for a borrower current consumption always falls while savings rise.
Open market operations directly affect the money supply through buying short-term government bonds (to expand money supply) or selling them (to contract it). Benchmark interest rates, such as the LIBOR and the Fed funds rate, affect the demand for money by raising or lowering the cost to borrow—in essence, money's price. When borrowing is cheap, firms will take on more debt to invest in hiring and expansion; consumers will make larger, long-term purchases with cheap credit; and savers will have more incentive to invest their money in stocks or other assets, rather than earn very little—and perhaps lose money in real terms—through savings accounts. Policy makers also manage risk in the banking system by mandating the reserves that banks must keep on hand. Higher reserve requirements put a damper on lending and rein in inflation.
In normal times, the monetary authority (usually a central bank or finance ministry) can stimulate the economy by lowering interest rate targets or increasing the monetary base. Either action should increase borrowing and lending, consumption, and fixed investment. When the relevant interest rate is already at or near zero, the monetary authority cannot lower it to stimulate the economy. The monetary authority can increase the overall quantity of money available to the economy, but traditional monetary policy tools do not inject new money directly into the economy. Rather, the new liquidity created must be injected into the real economy by way of financial intermediaries such as banks. In a liquidity trap environment, banks are unwilling to lend, so the central bank's newly-created liquidity is trapped behind unwilling lenders.
The idea of the money growth rule is contingent upon the relationship between the money supply and inflation. Therefore, the question arises whether there even is a relationship between money supply and inflation. As stated earlier, one can see a relation between money and inflation. Presented above is series data that displays this relationship between money supply and the inflation rate over the previous decades. The problem is that there are fluctuations within the data and therefore a broader definition of the money supply must be utilized. Based on the research of Dr. Terry J. Fitzgerald, an economist at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, if one defines money supply as M2, when examining the data over a multiple year progression, a pattern begins to present itself. Further, by graphing the difference between adjusted money growth and inflation, the link becomes evident. These graphs show the weight that changes to the money supply can have upon an economy’s inflation rate.
The term Monetary policy refers to the method through which a country’s monetary authority, such as the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England control money supply for the aim of promoting economic stability and growth and is primarily achieved by the targeting of various interest rates. Monetary policy may be either contractionary or expansionary whereby a contractionary policy reduces the money supply, reduces the rate at which money is supplied or sets about an increase in interest rates. Expansionary policies on the other hand increase the supply of money or lower the interest rates. Interest rates may also be referred to as tight if their aim is to reduce inflation; neutral, if their aim is neither inflation reduction nor growth stimulation; or, accommodative, if aimed at stimulating growth. Monetary policies have a great impact on the economic stability of a country and if not well formulated, may lead to economic calamities (Reinhart & Rogoff, 2013). The current monetary policy of the United States Federal Reserve while being accommodative and expansionary so as to stimulate growth after the 2008 recession, will lead to an economic pitfall if maintained in its current state. This paper will examine this current policy, its strengths and weaknesses as well as recommendations that will ensure economic stability.
In the study of macroeconomics there are several sub factors that affect the economy either favorably or adversely. One dynamic of macroeconomics is monetary policy. Monetary policy consists of deliberate changes in the money supply to influence interest rates and thus the level of spending in the economy. “The goal of a monetary policy is to achieve and maintain price level stability, full employment and economic growth.” (McConnell & Brue, 2004).
Money supply is the availability of money in the hands of the public (economy) that can be used to purchase goods, services and securities. In macroeconomics, the price of money is equivalent to the rate of interest. There's an inverse relationship between money supply and interest rates. As money supply increases, interest will decrease. On the other hand, interest will increases as money supply decreases. It is very important to understand that the economy works at market equilibrium. There are several factors affecting money supply; and these contributing factors will be the main focus of this paper. Understanding the basic principle on money supply is imperative to have a good grasp on the macroeconomic impact of money supply on business operations.
the empirical relations based on the VAR test conducted for the period 1990 to 2009 show that, Money supply and inflation are weakly positively correlated, Money supply and interest rates are very weakly and negatively correlated, Money supply and real GDP are strongly positively correlated, Money supply and nominal GDP are very strongly negatively correlated. Furthermore, the response of inflation to shocks in money supply is very weakly positive or has no effect since it is constant through out. This indicates that the relationship between money supply and inflation is not too significant.
Interest rates and the effects of interest rates on the economy concern not only macroeconomists but consumers, savers, borrowers, and lenders. A country may react and change their interest rates, according to the prosperity of their economy. Interest rates, is the percentage usually on an annual basis that is paid by the borrower to the lender for a loan of money (Merriam-Webster). If banks decided not to use interest rates, it would be impossible for others to be able to take out loans and therefore, there would be far less spending money in the economy. With interest rates, this allows banks to take a percentage of the consumer’s money and loan it out to others, thus allowing economic growth to be possible. Interest rates also allow lenders to have a “safety net” which is necessary because there is a possibility that the borrower would be unable to pay back a loan to the bank. A nation’s interest rates can be raised or lowered and these shifts in interest rates correlate directly to aggregate demand. Aggregate demand, is the total demand for final goods and services in an economy at a given time (Business Dictionary). A nation uses interest rates for economic growth or to help prevent inflation. When economic growth is needed a nation would lower their interest rates. However, if a country is concerned about inflation, they may choose to raise their interest rates. When interest rates, raised or lowered, will have a negative or positive impact on consumers, and have a positive or negative impact on investors.
An extension of the basic transaction demand for money theory is that set out by Baumol (1952) and further extended by Tobin (1956). The major underpinning of the inventory approach is that individual’s face a trade-off, between the liquidity offered by money balances, and the interest offered by bond holdings. The models determinants are therefore the nominal interest rate, the level of real income that relates to the desired number of transactions and the transaction costs of transferring money to bonds and vice versa, which are assumed fixed.
According to Wright & Quadrini, (2009), the money supply is determined by interactions between four economic forces: depository institutions, depositors, borrowers and central banks. Central banks manipulate money supply in the economy by controlling its money liability called the monetary base (MB). MB, in fact, equals to the total currency in circulation (C) plus Reserves (R) which are cash in banks’ vaults and commercial banks’ deposits with the Fed. When the Fed engaged in Open Market Operation (OMO), they are controlling the MB by selling and buying any securities but in most cases, Fed prefers government bonds over other assets. If the Fed wants to increase MB, it buys securities from the banks or other primary dealers. For instance,