Modernization Theory by Seymour Lipset

Do political and economic development go together? Do countries that develop economically also become more democratic?

The question posed is best explored through the lens of Modernization Theory, which partly originated with Lipset's 1959 formulation that the prospects for democracy to thrive within a country are directly correlated to its level of economic development. Przeworski has elucidated Lipset's theories as hypothesizing that economic affluence dovetails with democracy because wealth reduces the intensity of group or individual conflicts over the distribution of resources. Democracy – which through representative rule is perceived as the most egalitarian form of government – is widely taken to be the fundamental criterion of what makes a country or nation-state 'modern'. Lipset proposes that economic development sets off a series of profound social changes, such as increased urbanization, education and communication, that in turn precipitate larger middle classes and greater social equality. All of these elements combined, Lipset contends in his 1963 award-winning book, Political Man, provide the necessary framework for the emergence of democratic institutions. Today China maintains all such socio-economic elements. Thus, we are presented with a conundrum of sorts. Either we must construe that Modernization theory is dead, or according to its principles, that China’s democratization is latent, and will materialize at a later date.

Having thrown open its doors to capitalist investment and expanded at a miraculous rate over the past three decades, China has now surpassed Japan to become the second biggest economy in the world. Since the early 1980s, China's economy has metamorphosed from a centrally planned syst...

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... if we are to disregard Luciani’s deconstruction of the concept of modernity as explored above – which casts doubt over what it means to be modern – it is clear that even in Lipset's terms, modern day China is a testament to the failure of modernization's teleology. As yet, there are no signs of burgeoning political freedom or free elections despite the rising power of the country and the very real probability that it may soon challenge America's coveted 'last remaining superpower' status. Despite the superficial presence of MacDonald's, it remains fundamentally unrecognizable to Western eyes, and there seems to be little chance of it turning to democracy, so long as the regime continues to exercise authoritarian rule by denying a culture of openness in purported favour of one of ‘collective security’.