TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Time series is a set of data collected or arranged in a sequence of order over a successive equal increment of time (Lazim M.A, 2011). Time series also described as a sequence of data within a uniform time interval in the terms of years or months or days or hours and so forth.
Why am I interested in time series analysis?
Time series analysis is a quantitative or statistical technique used to forecast certain set of data over a time frame and can be evaluated for accuracy by applying certain measurement criteria. The application of time series data involves the formulation of mathematical models, which are estimated using significantly large amount of data to mimic the environment under study and therefore, generate the forecast value. Time series analysis and its applications have become increasingly important in various fields of research, such as business, economics, engineering, medicine, environometrics, social sciences, politics, and others.
It is interesting to forecast or in other word to predict the data over certain time interval to provide information for decision making activities, particularly in the area of planning and controlling. Good planning procedure would help to face of the ever-increasing uncertainties in the future. For example, if the value (sales, stock prices, etc) of certain product will fall next year, then the decision maker might want to plan of an action that would help to reduce or minimize losses and vise versa. Time series is used by social scientist in population series such as birth and mortality rate. In medicine, blood pressure over time can be used to evaluate drugs used in reducing the symptoms of hypertension. Time series analysis is also useful for environmental data, for example the tsunami waves, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, glacier calving, meteorite impacts, flood and so forth to forecast the potential of the natural disasters to happen again in future. Therefore, prevention and controlling will be able to save lives and avoid tragedies. This would be an honour if I am able to do so.
Time series analysis would be an advantage to monitor the progress achieved, in order to determine whether the set target is currently being realized or can be achieved in the foreseeable future. By using the historical data over time, we will be able to foresee and estimate the future if the most suitable method is used. The objectives of time series analysis are to identify and describe the underlying structure and the phenomenon as depicted by the sequence observations in the series and to determine the best mathematical model to fit the data series and use the model to generate forecast value.
This episode of "30 Days" Morgan Spurlock travels to a Navajo Indian reservation in an attempt to experience modern Native American life. While on the reservation he wants to know it if it’s a link to the past; a cultural escape, or is it simple a place time, and the rest of the world forgot.
The two main issues in this case are the project analysis and financial forecasting. The project should be analyzed before doing the forecasting, because any recommendations on the project will affect financial forecasting for the next two years.
The state of the economy is important both on a micro and macroeconomic level. On a macro level, those in government pay close attention to these statistics in order to guide fiscal and monetary policy. On a micro level, households can use this data to guide their consumption and investments, while businesses can use this information in their strategic planning. In looking at economic information, there is current data, historical data, and economic forecasts. This enables decision makers to get a more complete picture of economic trends and see the relationship between various economic indicators.
Despite Russia being unstable during the 1860s due to political conflicts, class conflicts, and various revolutionary ideologies shaking up traditional customs, women were still constantly trapped in their own state of oppression. Women were faced with inequality everywhere - from their community, to even their own family. Compared to men, they were subordinated legally at every social level and weren’t allowed to participate in occupations outside of their domestic work. In What is to Be Done?, Nikolai Chernyshevsky implements much of the intelligentsia’s ideas for transforming the subordination of women. The novel centers on Vera Pavlovna, a woman who escapes a suffocating lifestyle and forced marriage, becomes an entrepreneur, and finds her own true love with the help of her new found independence. Chernyshevsky uses Vera’s journey as an example of how a woman is oppressed and how she is able to be liberated from that oppression.
The hair company Herbal Essences perceives beauty to be sexually striking to the eyes. Their advertisement that was found in InTouch Magazine is selling Moroccan My Shine shampoo and conditioner product that will enhance more shine and silkiness in a women’s hair. The enhancement of the shine will provide women to have this sensual seductiveness about them self. To convince these consumers that this product is true to its claim, they use the beautiful pop singer Nicole Scherzinger as the model to illustrate her hair and how the product achieves to create this sexual shine. The overall advertisement creates this theme that if women were to use their product they will empower on this desirable affect to other people. Herbal Essences definition of beauty as being sexually attractive use design, use of celebrity, word choice, and audience to show that women need to have silky shine hair.
The purpose of economic indicators is to provide for researchers and analysts the ability to interpreter economic data. Economic indicators are the main source of prediction of market behavior. They are also detailed explanations of how to analyze various changes over a business cycle.
An economic indicator is a statistic of the current status of the economy. This can predict how the economy may perform in the future. Investors and other private or government organizations use this information as a tool to make business decisions. By gathering historical data about the economy and comparing it to current trends, one can compile a snapshot of economic fluctuations. The direction of an indicator may vary according to changes in the economy. The indicator can be leading, lagging, or coincident. Leading indicators are changes before the economy has recognized the changed. Lagging indicators do not change until a few quarters after the economy has change. Coincident indicators move at the same time as the economy (The Library of Congress, 2005). Some of the common indicators are GDP, Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate, Capacity utilization, Auto sales, and Personal income. As the explanation of these six indicators will be use to forecast the future of the economy, the trend of these indicators will also be used to evaluate the economy's historical and future outcome.
In his poem, “Nothing Gold Can Stay”, poet Robert Frost communicates the idea that everything created in the cosmos which is pure and possesses the beauty of gold can’t be put at a halt. It will lose its glow or purity at one time or the other. He reveals this idea through the use of a metaphor. Through lines one and five of his poem, he compares the nature’s leaves to a golden and beautiful sighted moment that doesn’t last long enough so that we can enjoy its bright view every day, and ultimately it all withers away through its color and appearance. “Nature’s first green is gold, her hardest hue to hold.” In these lines, Robert Frost explains the meaning that the glistening green color of the nature when all its leaves bloom is a flourishing sight, but it’s a radiant color that is hard to be hold. In line six, he uses an allusion to Adam and Eve’s story. “So Eden sank to grief.” This line expands on the idea that purity is another thing that can’t remain forever. When Eve ate from the tree of knowledge, Adam and Eve were kicked out of the Garden of Eden and that created consequences...
This report will first give a guidance on how to use this model and the accuracy of this model. Then illustrate what is forecasting system, computer programming and VBA and how these theory apply in this model. Finally, indicated the maintain process of this model, and the limitations of this model if user want to conduct further process
This is an advertisement for DKNY (Donna Karan New York) a company that make money by selling fashion goods to both men and female. The text cues the reader to accept that it is not so much involved with perfume, but with the beauty of nature: ‘gold delicious’. The syntagm that makes up the text of this image is dominated by an image of a girl biting an apple. The word in the upper left hand corner offers thanks to those who bought this perfume were helping the environment rather than the company.
Firat, K. A., Woon, W. L., & Madnick, S. (2008, September). Technological Forecasting - A Review. Composite Information Systems Laboratory (CISL). Retrieved February 12, 2014
Business forecasting can be used in a wide variety of contexts, and by a wide variety of businesses. For example, effective forecasting can determine sales based on attendance at a trade show, or the customer demand for products and services (Business and Economic Forecasting, p.1). One of the most important assumptions of business forecasters is that the past acts as an important guide for the future. It is important to note that forecasters must consider a number of new information, including rapidly changing economic conditions and globalization, when creating business forecasts based on past sales.
Addressing the trials of operating in a continually changing environment and realizing forecasts can only
Ever since 1880, Frederick W. Taylor is the first one who established the time study [1]. By using a stopwatch, the Father of Time Study, Taylor observes and measures his work content by comparing with his purpose to determine whether it’s “a fair day’s work”. In order to complete the time study, he took down the data for every work with different ways and varied with size of tools, times taken to complete the task, working hour with short break. After that, he could reduce the work time, number or workers needed and also the spending of budget every year.
monsoon,wart,inflasion,foreign exchange reserves public debt and foreign debt, budgetary deficit, domestic savings and capital output ratio, infrastructure. Government policy, interest rate, taxation policy, balance of trade, employement,political situation and international developments are some of the important economic indicators. A favorable monsoon has appositive impact on stock markets.