2016 Investment Strategy on China 's Stock Market I. Introduction China 's stock market is still an emerging market, not as mature as US stock market. So, there are several factors U.S. investors should consider when making investment in China. (1) Institutional investors are underdeveloped and individual investors account for a large proportion in China’s market. 80% of the trade volume in China’s stock market is from individual investors, while institutional investors account for 70% of the trading volume in the U.S. stock market. Most of individual investors tend to focus on short-term speculation. They like to buy small and medium-sized stocks. So three kinds of stocks are favored by individual investors in China – stocks …show more content…
PE ratio of the GEM reached up to 143 in June 2015, which was even higher than the PE ratio of NASDAQ in 2000 (PE ratio was 100 when the bubble burst at 5000 points). After a mad bull in China’s stock market in the beginning of 2015, bubble in the market became very big. With 8-month adjustment, PE ratio of Shanghai Composite Index CSI 300 is now 13.87, Shenzhen Composite Index 40.36, the weighted average PE ratio of these two market 28.3, and PE ratio of SME board is 51.51, and of the GEM is 81.7. However, there still remain some structural bubbles. The bust of the bubbles in the GEM board is not over yet. The crash of GEM board in China is similar to the crash of NASDAQ in US in 2000, shown in Figure 3. Figure 3: Comparison of the GEM and NASDAQ 5. Fundamental …show more content…
The U.S. stock market has experienced six years of bull markets. According to historical statistics, in the cycle of rising interest rates, there is an over 80% probability that U.S. stocks and external markets will turn to bear markets. The head of bear had already been formed in US stock market, and a declining trend had been shown in other stock markets. China has lowered interest rates and cut the requirement reserve ratio (RRR) several times, as shown in Figures 5 and 6. There may still be space for further lowering key interest rates and cutting the RRR. However, the marginal effect in stimulating the stock market is diminishing. Moreover, China is undergoing a budget deficit, which is the highest in 50 years. So, monetary and fiscal policies have limited effect now. The CPI is low and PPI is negative (see Figure 7). China’s monetary policy would maintain low interest rates. With the rate-increase cycle in US, RMB will continue to depreciate (see Figure 8). This will offset the liquidity brought by the central bank’s policies to lower key interest rates or cut the requirement reserve ratio. Figure 4: China 's GDP Growth
Following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2009 BlueScope was in its worst ever market position. As of 2011 the price of shares had hit record lows of 38c compared to $12.03 of just three years earlier, showing a 93% reduction in share prices. Huge financial losses were also recorded. In the 2010/2011 financia...
The stock price is currently 103.31, down from a recent high of 121.50. The P/E ratio is declining at 28 and beta at .67, which is expected to grow closer to 1.0. A recent earnings surprise last December yielded a 15% difference from the lower expectations and the latest earnings reports late last month also surprised investors. Estimates for the 2000 fiscal year are being raised by a large majority of analyst who believe that earnings per share will increase and the stock price will reach close to 150.
I believe that one of the best investments I could make would be an FPI (foreign portfolio investment) into state-owned industries in China. Announced on April 23rd, the government has opened 8 state-controlled industries to investment. I’d recommend FPI (as opposed to FDI) in this venture because, while China is opening these industries up, they are not opening them up for control. Still, companies like Sinopec Ltd., a large oil company, are up to selling about 30% of the SBU that controls its filling stations, a unit valued at over $20 billion. As the middle class continues to grow and be able to purchase more items (like cars), the huge population’s demand for necessary products like these will continue to grow. Companies like Sinopec are adamant that they will not give up any control, and that’s why FPI would be preferable to FDI when it comes to these industries. Another significant reason that I’d prefer FPI over FDI in China is due to risk (political, socioeconomic, etc.) These companies say the reason they won’t lose control is because they don’t want to have to change their operational practices. With FPI, these companies won’t get paranoid that investors are trying to change them. The previous reasons are very specific, but China has general policies, procedures, and trends in place (good or bad) that make it plain for investors to see that they are wanted, and business is a priority. China has an autocratic government, which is very efficient in getting things done, so it is more conducive for companies to work in. China also has very low wage costs ($1.74 per hour). Also, China has some of the least progressive environmental regulations laws, which lowers costs. China’s GDP growth rate is still at 7.5% (14th in the wor...
The United States signaled a new era after the end of World War I. It was an era of hopefulness when many people invested their money that was under the mattresses at home or in the bank into the stock market. People migrated to the prosperous cities with the hopes of finding much better life. In the 1920s, the stock market reputation did not appear to be a risky investment, until 1929.First noticeable in 1925, the stock market prices began to rise as more people invested their money. During 1925 and 1926, the stock prices vacillated but in 1927, it had an upward trend. The stock market boom had started by 1928. The stock market was no longer a long-term investment because the boom changed the investor’s way of thinking (“The Stock Market Crash of 1929”). The Stock Market Crash of 1929 was a mass hysteria because of people investing without any prior knowledge and the after effects that eventually led to the Great Depression.
Finally, investors went into “panic mode” on October 24th, 1929, and began trading and dumping their shares, totaling a record of 12.9 million. Of course, following “Black Thursday,” the more well-known “Black Tuesday” ensued as a result of this. Between Black Monday and Black Tuesday, the market lost 24% of its value, and investors bought and traded over 28.9 million stocks. These stocks, now worthless, were used as firewood for some investor’s homes. The Dow Jones Company is perhaps the greatest example for this crash. Dow Jones started at 191 points at the beginning of 1928, then more than doubling to 381 points by September 1929. The crash caused their record 381 points to plummet to less than 41 p...
Post the era of World War I, of all the countries it was only USA which was in win win situation. Both during and post war times, US economy has seen a boom in their income with massive trade between Europe and Germany. As a result, the 1920’s turned out to be a prosperous decade for Americans and this led to birth of mass investments in stock markets. With increased income after the war, a lot of investors purchased stocks on margins and with US Stock Exchange going manifold from 1921 to 1929, investors earned hefty returns during this time epriod which created a stock market bubble in USA. However, in order to stop increasing prices of Stock, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate sof loanabel funds which depressed the interest sensitive spending in many industries and as a result a record fall in stocks of these companies were seen and ultimately the stock bubble was finally burst. The fall was so dramatic that stock prices were even below the margins which investors had deposited with their brokers. As a reuslt, not only investor but even the brokerage firms went insolvent. Withing 2 days of 15-16 th October, Dow Jones fell by 33% and the event was referred to Great Crash of 1929. Thus with investors going insolvent, a major shock was seen in American aggregate demand. Consumer Purchase of durable goods and business investment fell sharply after the stock market crash. As a result, businesses experienced stock piling of their inventories and real output fell rapidly in 1929 and throughout 1930 in United States.
The events that unfolded on September 11th and the days that followed also profoundly effected the stock market. It is the purpose of this paper is to examine what happened to both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ after September 11th and how it is similar to events such as the bombing of Pearl Harbor, the Oklahoma City bombing, and the Gulf War in terms of how the stock market experienced a blow and bounced back after a while.
Despite the fact that recent reports have shown that the Chinese currency is currently facing descending pressures, it is, however, likely to improve in the future because of the enhanced terms of trade, current account surplus that is growing, and high net saving. Another reason that will make the Chinese RMB to do well in the future it is because the currency has solid fundamentals and the economy of the country is significantly increasing at a higher rate than the GDP rates. Due to the growing Chinese economy to being the second largest economy, the Chinese currency yuan has been acknowledged by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a major global
Xingzhong, LI Daokui David YIN. "The International Monetary System in the Era of Post-Financial Crisis: What Policy Options Does China Have?[J]." Journal of Financial Research 2 (2010): 005
In turn everything in the present and the future is judged through the stocks as they hold a high importance in industrialized economies showing the healthiness of said countries economy. As investing discourages consumer spending over all decreases, it lead...
We analyzed the market for two weeks to determine when the equity market would turn from a bearish to bullish market. Without a change in the market and a declining bond price, we decided to invest in equities according to our investment strategy, which brought us into the second phase of our portfolio. Therefore, at the beginning of February we bought shares in Sirius, Microsoft, Neon, Washington Mutual, and Nike. As assumed, the equity market continued to plummet decreasing the value of all our stocks except for our Gold Corporation stock.
China's development is praised by the whole world. Its developments are not only in the economic aspect, but also in its foreign affairs. Compared to other developed countries, China is a relatively young country. It began constructing itself in 1949. After 30 years of growth, company ownership has experienced unprecedented changes.
I became an enthusiast of finance ever since I was at high school. At the political economy class, my teacher asked us: if you have a million RMB, how would you use it? She then introduced us the concept of investment, and I was intrigued specifically by the stock. For the latter two years of my high school, I have been reading books and articles regarding the stock market in the U.S. and in China. As one of the outstanding students ranked top 1% in College Entrance Exam in Hainan Province, China, I was accepted by the City University of Hong Kong with a full scholarship. With the strong interest in finance, I chose quantitative finance and risk management as my major.
Japan has one the most advanced economies in the world, with an advanced economy comes an advanced equity market. As other advanced equity markets are, the Japanese market is similar to the U.S. in its essential functions and its operation by the exchanges that allow its existence. The Japanese stock market is third largest in the world by market capitalization, surpassed only by the United States and China. Market participants trade over the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Osaka Securities Exchange which combined to form the Japan Exchange Group (JPX) in 2013 (JPX.com). As of November 2015 there were 3500 companies listed as part of the JPX and over $400 billion dollars of shares traded in 2014 (World Federation of Exchanges).
In the race to be the best, China is clearly outperforming the United States. China has strong economic fundamentals¬ such as “a high savings rate, huge labor pool, and powerful work ethic” (Rachman, Gideon. "Think Again: American Decline). Their economy has grown an astonishing 9-10% over the past thirty years; almost double of what it used to be decades ago. China is also the “world’s greatest manufacturer and its greatest market” (Rachman). The continuing growth of China's economy is a source of concern for not only the U.S. but surrounding nations as well. One could argue that the U.S. need not worry about China’s growth because of the spread of globalization and that western ideologies would influence China to turn to democracy. Yet China has still managed to “incorporate censorship and one party rule with continuing economic success” (Rachman) and remains a communist country. Hypothetically, even if China does resort to a democratic state, this does not gua...