Investigating The Individual Difference Factors That Could Explain How Well People Use Different Risk Communication Formats

Investigating The Individual Difference Factors That Could Explain How Well People Use Different Risk Communication Formats

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The goal of this body of research was to investigate the individual difference factors that could explain how well people use different risk communication formats. In summary, this set of experiments generated compelling evidence for the overall advantage of forecasts that include numerical uncertainty and the contribution of numeracy when reasoning with numerical uncertainty estimates.
First , results demonstrated that inclusion of numerical uncertainty estimates is overall preferable to providing explicit decision advice as a means to promote superior decision quality. However, at low probabilities of an event for which precautionary action is warranted or economically optimal, combining decision advice and numerical uncertainty estimates leads to the best decisions overall. Doing so reduces decision errors, notably the risk-seeking errors people might make when a low numeric probability alone makes taking precautionary action seem counterintuitive. Numeric probability estimates, therefore, are an effective way to communicate weather uncertainty and lead to better decisions overall, but decision advice communicates low-probability events more successfully.
Furthermore, increased numeracy
Second, in a more practical way,
Overall, this research, and hopefully more like it in the future, provides evidence for the way humans respond to different expressions of uncertainty. Evidence that ideally could inform how weather uncertainty is communicated to the public. This type of research is critical as high-quality information is increasingly available, and without communicating it effectively to different types of users, its value cannot be realized.
Implications
Much of this research is novel. The topic of tailored risk communi...


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...to include interaction terms that would needlessly complicate the regression models. Future research could investigate potential interactions between factors such as numeracy, age, education, and income interact with each other to explain decision quality when given numerical uncertainty estimates.

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Extension- Future research
In conclusion, the research reported here offers an optimistic view of our ability to make decisions when faced with uncertainty. It provides a clear line of evidence that adding numeric uncertainty estimates to weather forecasts results in better decisions and higher trust. Ultimately, emergency managers could communicate weather-related risk more clearly, people could make better decisions, and lives could even be saved. Furthermore, the basic pattern of results demonstrated here might be applicable in other domains, such as me

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