I will be conducting an experiment which involves burning a forest to test the progression of the forest fire in relation to the high density of trees in the forest. The general hypothesis in this case would suggest the higher the density of trees, the further the fire would progress. I will be conducting various tests to test this hypothesis. The variable that I will be changing is the population of trees within the forest. To carry out this experiment I will be using a simulation which is created by the use of a Net Logo environment.
To carry out this experiment I will use various tree densities to test how much of the forest will burn. I will be using the ticks to see how long it would take for the particular density of trees to be burnt. The following percentages show the different densities of the tress I will be using; 99%, 75%, 60%, 50% and 25%. When carrying out the simulation, 5 repeats would be carried out to be able to gain reliable results. I will average out the 5 repeats to get 1 final reliable result.
Density Repeat % Burnt Ticks
99% 1 100% 321
2 100% 317
3 100% 311
4 100% 317
5 100% 318
Average 100% 316.8
Density Repeat % Burnt Ticks
1 99.3% 302
2 99.3% 300
3 99.4% 306
4 99.2% 307
5 99.2% 301
Average 99.3% 303.2
The table above shows the results I have gained with a tree density of 99%. The results above show that the average amount of trees that were burnt was 100%. The average tick was 316.8.
The table above shows the results I have gained with a tree density of 75%. It shows that on average 99.3% of the tree density got burnt. The results show that as the tree density decreased from 99% to 75% the percentage of trees burnt...
... middle of paper ...
...o burn when the weather is very hot and dry compared to when its damp and wet.
To conclude, the hypothesis of ‘the higher the density of trees, the higher the percentage of more trees being burnt’ can be accepted due to the results I have gained. The results that I have gained support the fact that the hypothesis can be accepted. The reason for this acceptance is due to the repetition of the experiment showing that the results gained were reliable and not just fluked. However, I can’t stress enough that a real life scenario could give different results, due to this only being a simulation. In a real life scenario there would be many factors that could cause a change to the results, such as wind direction and weather etc. you will not be able to come up with a real conclusion until a real life experiment is carried out and not just on a simulation.
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