Hong Kong's Economic Forecast

1219 Words3 Pages

As Hong Kong is a small economy that is highly open to trade, it is also highly susceptible to global economic shocks. This is most recently evidenced by the GDP slowdown to 1.7% driven by negative trade developments and the inevitable drop in exports due to the global economic crisis. However, despite the weak global economy, Hong Kong's growth has rebounded due to the resilience of domestic demand along with low unemployment, most notably in low-skilled sectors. Additionally, beneficial fiscal policies providing counter-cyclical support to the economy have bolstered Hong Kong's economic health. Through such actions as waiving rates for properties, reducing public housing rents, increasing capital spending, and tax relief, Hong Kong's government has proactively strengthened its economy. Through these and other beneficial factors, Hong Kong is thus predicted to rebound to 3% GDP growth by 2013. Despite this positive economic projection, Hong Kong is not without potential risks to its financial stability through a variety of underlying causes. The most prevalent of these risks is undoubtedly the collapse of the Hong Kong real estate market caused by a sharp and abrupt price correction. The underlying cause would be attributed to a run-up in housing prices that have doubled their trough of 2008 to a record in the past four years. According to Himaras, “Hong Kong’s apartment prices have surged to become the world’s most expensive after low interest rates and limited supply fueled demand, prompting the government to tighten mortgage lending and add taxes.” Furthermore, as the property sector represents half of the outstanding loans for use in Hong Kong, a sharp fall in price would bring about falling collateral values and negati... ... middle of paper ... ...han doubled since 2009 and represent the largest exposure. However, the U.S. and U.K. financial systems continue to generally be the more systemically-important for Hong Kong SAR, even though Hong Kong’s cross-border exposures to the Mainland are larger.” Despite these relationships, Hong Kong should continue to benefit from the series of beneficial factors that have proved essential to their growing success. In doing so, Hong Kong's economic future should prove stable despite the potential risks in the years to come. Works Cited Himaras, Eleni. "Hong Kong at Risk of Property Price Correction, IMF Says." Bloomberg. 12 Dec. 2012. Web. 07 May 2013. "People's Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administration Region." 2012 Article IV Consultation Discussions (2012). International Monetary Fund. Web. .

Open Document