Why Has the Cost of Navy Ships Risen?
Introduction
Over the past four decades the cost of navy ships has exceeded the rate of inflation. Although navy increases the budget from $10 billion to $12 billion, they will achieve a fleet of 260 ships by the year 2035 rather than the 290 it now has. In this document the reason and the sources of the increase are investigated. The problem is also considered from the industry's point of view. Some options for the Navy to reduce ship costs are found.
In this document cost increase of four types of ships- nuclear attack submarines, guided missile destroyers, amphibious ships and nuclear aircraft carriers is noted. Generally we consider these four ships as a whole.
Cost escalation of naval ships
Ship class Cost in 1967 million $ Cost in 2005 million $ Cost Increase
%
Nuclear Attack Submarines $484 $2,427 401
Guided Missile Destroyers $515 $1,148 123
Amphibious Ships $229 $1,125 391
Nuclear Aircraft Carriers $3,036 $6,065 100
To organize analysis we divide sources of cost escalation factors into two groups.(economy driven and customer driven factors)
Economy driven factors: Largely outside of the control of government such as worker wages and indirect labor cost, and material equipment cost.
Customer driven factors are factors that the customer directly influences. Customer driven factors include elements the government wants on a ship.
The most important problem from shipbuildersf perspective is their main customer governmentfs fluctuating demands.
The growth of ship costs
Since 1950 Naval ships costs have escalated at rate between 7-11 percent. However inflation over this period ranged from 4-5 percent. To observe the inflation we can look at CPI (consumer price index) CPI is the best known measure of changes in consumer prices. This index measures price changes to a sample of typical consumer goods.
Annual growth rate of some CPI components
CPI Component Annual Growth Rate (%)
Private transportation 2.4
Food and beverage 4.2
Gasoline 4.9
Medical Care 6.6
College Tuition 8.0
Cost escalation rates for Force ships
Ship Type Annual Growth Rate
Amphibious ships 10.8
Surface combatants 10.7
Attach submarines 9.8
Nuclear Aircraft carriers 7.4
Cost escalation rate can be measured by (cost2/cost1)-1
Generally we examine the annual growth rate = (year2-year1)ãcost2/cost1-1
We divide sources of cost escalation factors into two groups.
Economy driven factors: Largely outside of the control of government. Economy driven factors may include worker wages and benefit costs, labor productivity, indirect labor cost, and material equipment cost. These factors affect all shipbuilding programs uniformly.
Labor constitutes between 32 and 51 percent of the construction costs for the ships we analyzed. Equipment cost range from 35 to 57 percent of construction costs for the ships we analyzed, material cost range from 11 to 17 percent.
The Collins class submarines used leading edge of technology and were specifically designed for Australia’s special requirements. Despite all the issues discussed, the Project has some significant project management, engineering and construction achievements which in many ways demonstrate the capacity of Australian Industry to manufacture world-class submarines. Meanwhile, many of the mechanical, technical and combat system problems of the Collins class submarines have now been resolved. The latest review indicates that the availability of the submarines for deployment has increased significantly (ABC, 2014). However, the actual procurement process was risky because it had unclear objectives, unrealistic expectations, adopted untried construction processes, and was dominated by inexperienced supervision and management.
Status of the Navy. (2004, September). The US Navy: Around the World, Around the Clock. Retrieved September 10, 2004 from http://www.chinfo.navy.mil/navpalib/ news/.www/status.html
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