Forecasting US Oil Production Essays

Forecasting US Oil Production Essays

Length: 1757 words (5 double-spaced pages)

Rating: Powerful Essays

Open Document

Essay Preview

1. Introduction
Oil production in US has been experiencing fluctuation for a long period and there is a need to identify whether there has been a trend in oil production for the period from 1980 to 2008. This analysis could be of interest to the energy administration commission and the government for the purpose of planning for the amount of crude oil that can be allowed for export as well as for the purpose of planning investment in infrastructure for other energy sources. (Bp, 2013) In addition, the study will be seeking to identify the effect on accuracy of using different periods in computing moving average.
Some studies have been done with BP reporting in its 2013 energy report that US Oil production has been following a decline trend for a long time as oil production gets concentrated in areas where it commands a high value. This has also been said to be caused by an increase in coal and bio-fuels production in addition to declining oil reserves. Other causes of the decline include increased demand for renewable energy including nuclear power. (Bp, 2013) On the other hand, the moving average method’s properties hold that using smaller number of periods for the average computation provides more effective forecasting hence the need for this study to confirm the property using the US oil production case. (Makridakis & Wheelwright, 2008)
2. Data description
 Data collection
Data collection for the study has been done from secondary sources where US crude oil production data has been obtained from published reports including government reports on the energy sector. Information about other studies and market views about the production has also been collected from published reports including the industry’s company reports. (...


... middle of paper ...


...s been having a declining pattern over the period of time as a result of the mentioned factors. (Makridakis & Wheelwright, 2008)

References
BP. (2013). Bp Energy outlook 2030. Retrieved from,
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-eview/BP_World_Energy_Outlook_booklet_2013.pdf
Clements, M. & Hendry, D. (2011). The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
Lacobucci, D. & Churchill, G. (2010). (10th Ed.). Marketing Research: Methodical
Foundations. Ohio: South-Western College Publishers.
Makridakis, S. & Wheelwright, S. (2008). (3rd Ed.). Forecasting Methods and applications.
New Delhi: Wiley India Pvt. Ltd.
US. Energy Information Administration. (2014). Petroleum and other Liquids: US Field
Production of Crude Oil. Retrieved from, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus1&f=a

Need Writing Help?

Get feedback on grammar, clarity, concision and logic instantly.

Check your paper »

Essay on Significance of Quantity of Oil Produced

- Significance of Quantity of Oil Produced in US in Determining US Oil Prices. 1. Introduction Oil production and prices in US have been experiencing fluctuation for a long period and there is a need to identify whether the production has a significant effect on oil prices for the period from 1986 to 2005. This analysis could be of interest to the energy administration commission and the government for the purpose of planning for oil price control as well as for the purpose of planning investment in infrastructure for oil production....   [tags: oil prices,US,OLS]

Powerful Essays
1677 words (4.8 pages)

Essay on Oil And Gas : The Lifeblood Of Modern Society

- Oil and gas are the lifeblood of modern society. The United States Energy and Information Administration 's records show that world oil consumption has increased by an average of one thousand barrels a day each year since 2010 (EIA) . In 2014 "61% of primary energy consumed in the United States was from oil or natural gas” (EIA). In addition natural gas consumption is on the rise as the United States, everyday less and less coal is used to generate electric power and more natural gas is. Even as the price of crude oil drops and the opportunity for employment diminishes; petroleum engineers are still needed to find ways to continue to produce the resources that are needed for everyday life....   [tags: Petroleum, Natural gas, Oil well]

Powerful Essays
1008 words (2.9 pages)

Declining Demand Of Oil Prices Essay

- Declining of oil price: The oil industry is full of economic booms and busts. As of October 2015, the industry is in a downturn, and the price of crude oil has dropped significantly. Earnings are down for companies that have made high profits over the past five years, and these companies have responded by decommissioning half their overall rigs and cutting investments in exploration and production. The cause of the downturn is the declining price of a barrel of oil, which is due to the strong U.S....   [tags: Petroleum, Peak oil, OPEC, Saudi Arabia]

Powerful Essays
1352 words (3.9 pages)

Essay on Oil Reaching $30 a Barrel

- Oil Reaching $30 a Barrel “Can the world afford to buy oil at thirty dollars a barrel?” Ed Crook stresses the worldwide delay in satisfying heightened global demand. Consequently he predicted prices would rise to and beyond thirty dollars a barrel. Oil dependent nations such as the United States and Europe are now becoming concerned at the high prices. In protest against fuel prices, French fishermen used their boats to block off the channel ports. Analysts are blaming the production chain for not exploiting other oil reserves as the global demand has been increasing since the 1980’s (although at that time exploitation of some European reserves was deemed uneconomical)....   [tags: essays papers]

Powerful Essays
607 words (1.7 pages)

Sustainability of Palm Oil Production in Indonesia Essay

- Sustainability of Palm Oil Production in Indonesia Palm oil is the leading edible vegetable oil by production volume. It is an essential ingredient in the manufacture of a wide variety of products that are used globally every day, such as chocolate, soap, and cosmetics. It is also a common cooking oil in many countries, notably in Asia, and is used in other industries, including livestock and, increasingly, biofuels. Palm oil is produced from the fruit of oil palm tree (Elaeis guineensis). Palm oil can be separated into a various distinct oils with different properties....   [tags: vegetable oil, palm oil, production, economic]

Powerful Essays
772 words (2.2 pages)

Innovations in Crude Oil Production Essay

- Innovations in Crude Oil Production The first oil well was drilled in 1859 by Edwin Drake. It burned to the ground several months later, but had it survived it would only have yielded around 20 barrels of oil per day, hardly a drop in today’s market.(“Story”) At the time however, it was considered a success and it began a revolution in oil production. Crude oil production in the world skyrocketed from a few hundred barrels of oil per day to 76 million today. (“International”) Of course, in the long term, this is not sustainable....   [tags: Oil Production Essays Papers]

Powerful Essays
2302 words (6.6 pages)

Essay on The History of Oil Production in Venezuela

- The history of Venezuelan oil production can be traced to the 1800s when Venezuela’s first oil company was established. However, for purposes of conciseness, this analysis will only focus on developments that occurred after the decade 1960. An analysis of oil production history indicates that the government played and continues to play a significant role in the sector thus leading to some significant setbacks. Prior to 1960, Venezuelan oil production was mostly done by the Royal Dutch Shell oil company and it was under the organization’s leadership that Venezuela’s oil entered the global market....   [tags: shell oil, OPEC]

Powerful Essays
1528 words (4.4 pages)

Essay on Oil Production in Indonesia

- ... Throughout World War II, the Japanese exploited Indonesia’s oil reserves and refineries. “With independence following WWII, the oil, oil fields, refineries and supplies seized by the Japanese invasion force were returned to the Indonesian Government, and the new era of Indonesian energy exploration and production began,” according to the Indonesian Petroleum Association. Indonesia’s economic development is in large, dependent on oil and gas production. The State Constitution of 1945 mandated that “all of Indonesia’s land, water and natural resources are controlled by the State and will be utilized for the greatest benefit and welfare of its people.” Pertamina, Indonesia’s largest state-...   [tags: palm oil industry, petroleum]

Powerful Essays
1051 words (3 pages)

Forecasting Methodology Essay

- Forecasting Methodology Forecasting is an integral part in planning the financial future of any business and allows the company to consider probabilities of current and future trends using existing data and facts. Forecasts are vital to every business organization and for every significant management decision. Forecasting, according to Armstrong (2001), is the basis of corporate long-run planning. Many times, this unique approach is used not only to provide a baseline, but also to offer a prediction into the corporation's future....   [tags: Business Forecasting ]

Powerful Essays
1444 words (4.1 pages)

Macroeconomic Forecasting Essay example

- Macroeconomic Forecasting Abstract Annual data was gathered on the United States' Gross Domestic Product and the economic indicators of unemployment, employment growth, inflation, and interest rates. Using 2004 as the base year, forecasts for the next two years were taken from three different forecasting organizations and compared to historical figures. Differences in projected data were addressed as well as relationships between forecasts and among the targeted indicators. The results of the economic forecasts were applied to current Motorola operations and plans....   [tags: Economics Business Forecasting]

Free Essays
1873 words (5.4 pages)