Forecasting US Oil Production Essays

Forecasting US Oil Production Essays

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1. Introduction
Oil production in US has been experiencing fluctuation for a long period and there is a need to identify whether there has been a trend in oil production for the period from 1980 to 2008. This analysis could be of interest to the energy administration commission and the government for the purpose of planning for the amount of crude oil that can be allowed for export as well as for the purpose of planning investment in infrastructure for other energy sources. (Bp, 2013) In addition, the study will be seeking to identify the effect on accuracy of using different periods in computing moving average.
Some studies have been done with BP reporting in its 2013 energy report that US Oil production has been following a decline trend for a long time as oil production gets concentrated in areas where it commands a high value. This has also been said to be caused by an increase in coal and bio-fuels production in addition to declining oil reserves. Other causes of the decline include increased demand for renewable energy including nuclear power. (Bp, 2013) On the other hand, the moving average method’s properties hold that using smaller number of periods for the average computation provides more effective forecasting hence the need for this study to confirm the property using the US oil production case. (Makridakis & Wheelwright, 2008)
2. Data description
 Data collection
Data collection for the study has been done from secondary sources where US crude oil production data has been obtained from published reports including government reports on the energy sector. Information about other studies and market views about the production has also been collected from published reports including the industry’s company reports. (...

... middle of paper ...

...s been having a declining pattern over the period of time as a result of the mentioned factors. (Makridakis & Wheelwright, 2008)

BP. (2013). Bp Energy outlook 2030. Retrieved from,
Clements, M. & Hendry, D. (2011). The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
Lacobucci, D. & Churchill, G. (2010). (10th Ed.). Marketing Research: Methodical
Foundations. Ohio: South-Western College Publishers.
Makridakis, S. & Wheelwright, S. (2008). (3rd Ed.). Forecasting Methods and applications.
New Delhi: Wiley India Pvt. Ltd.
US. Energy Information Administration. (2014). Petroleum and other Liquids: US Field
Production of Crude Oil. Retrieved from,

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