For water level forecasting especially in the flood period, the data were selected only from July to October which is a regular monsoon flood season in Myanmar and most Asian countries. In order to characterize the variation of water level at Mawlaik station, descriptive statistics were calculated. As shown in Fig. 2, the frequency distribution exhibits almost a normal distribution, although the data was slightly skewed. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was also used to numerically check the normality of the data whose size is 2706. The null hypothesis of normality is rejected if the probability (p) value is smaller than the significance level of 0.05. Since the p value associated with the normality test is 0.001, the test statistically detected a non-normal distribution of the large data set. However, with a low skewness (0.3) and small kurtosis (-0.56), there seem to be trivial departures from normality for the water level series at Mawlaik station and the distribution is reasonably close to the normality. For large sample sizes, significant results would be derived even in the case of a small deviation from normality, but detecting non-normality would not affect any statistical analysis (Ghasemi and Zahediasl 2012). It is also imperative that the training and validation sets are representative of the same population. In the model development 80% of the flood season data (1990-2007) were used for calibration while 20% (2008-2011) were used for validation. For ANN models, the calibration data were further randomly divided into 80% for training set and 20% for the testing set. Before applying the ANN models, the calibration data sets of river stage and rainfall were standardized in a linear scale subtracting the mean and divided by th... ... middle of paper ... ...din AY (2010) Artificial neural network model for river flow forecasting in a developing country. IWA Journal of Hydroinformatics 12(1): 22-34. Sentu D, Regulwar DG (2011) Inflow prediction by different neural network architectures: A case study. International journal of earth sciences and engineering 4(6): 225-230. Tareghian R, Kashefipour SM (2007) Application of Fuzzy Systems and Artificial Neural Networks for flood forecasting. Journal of Applied Sciences 7(22): 3451-3459. Thirumalaiah K, Deo MC (1998) Real-Time Flood Forecasting Using Neural Networks. Computer Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering 13: 101-111. Wang W (2006) Stochasticity, Nonlinearity and Forecasting of Streamflow Processes. Amsterdam, IOS Press. Wu C L, Chau KW, Li Y S (2008) River stage prediction based on a distributed support vector regression. Journal of hydrology 358: 96-111.
Floods can be a very dangerous natural disaster because a flood has the power to move cars, buildings, and cause massive damage to life and property. Even the small floods that are only 30 centimetres or so can do massive damage to houses and if the
New Orleans, Louisiana lies at the second lowest elevation among major cities in the United States. It is a city surrounded by water, making it almost like an island. To counter this dangerous combination of the low elevation along with the lakes, rivers and swamps surrounding it, the Army Corps of Engineers built a series of levees around the city to foster its protection. It is these very same levees however that might doom the city should a Category 3 hurricane ever hit. Our statistical analyses examined the current belief that there is a 39% probability that New Orleans will be hit by a major hurricane and based on the resulting Z-score, rejected that belief. We did find however that the probability, while not 39%, was still in the 30th percentile range, which should still be a major cause for concern among the leaders and residences of the city of New Orleans.
In the binational area of El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez flooding has become a way of life due to the scarcity of rain and desert climate. Fortunately, meteorologist, geologist and city planners are continuously working to improve city prior to a storm in order to mitigate any financial hardships during and after a flood. The city has to take in account past events in order to improve infrastructure. They also rely on meteorologist to study how the weather is reacting so they can anticipate the next system and how it will hit this region. The primary expert that contributes to this vital research are the Geologist, who have brought to light the cause and effects during drastic climate events. In this report, it will document infrastructure affects, stormwater management, Climate Whiplash and thoughts from the geologist on the desert-flood relationship.
The Cumberland and Cumberland River basin experienced a 36 hour rainfall that produced flooding in Nashville and its greater area (After Action Report, II). The 2010 two day storm was believed to be greater than a 100 year event. Storm activity began on May 1st and 2nd which created a large scale flash flood along the Cumberland and Lower Tennessee rivers, and within its tributaries. Historically the Cumberland River basin has received great amounts of precipitation and has experienced extreme rainfall before, making it prone to severe flooding (After Action Report, I). Some of the historic floods that have affected the Cumberland River are the December 1926, January 1927, January 1937 and March 1975 floods, which produced a maximum flood height in much of the river. Before the May 2010 flood, the Cumberland River reached a flood stage of 45.26 feet during the May 1987 flood which was a result of a series of flooding events that took place during an extensive amount of time (After Action Report, 4). The 2010 flood which affected much of Nashville acted more like a flash flood, which produced record breaking rainfall for much of the area. According to the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) on April 30th rainfall totaled 7.8 inches across central Tennessee. The report also states that there was a widespread of rainfall equaling to 2 to 6 inch in total, over southeastern US stretching to Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Rainfall for parts of western Tennessee and Kentucky totaled 3 to 4 inches with a high of 4.65 inches (After Action Report, III). As it is stated by the report areas around Nashville received more than 13 inches of rain in a span of 36 hours, which doubled the record set by the September 1979 flood event. At th...
Moore, J. R., Bell, A. V., Jones, A. D., 2005. Forecasting for flood warning. C.R Geoscience 337, 203-217.
New Orleans flooding risks originated from its location characteristics in proximity of Mississippi River. Since its foundation up to 1927, New Orleans water and flooding threats originated from Mississippi River but human activities had contained this by 1930s. Regrettably, this led to additional water problems. Accordingly, the critical changes to the New Orleans environment originating from the human development worsened the water problems in area caused by the floods. In particular, the growth in ...
Stergiou, C., & Siganos, D. (2011, August 6). Neural Networks. Retrieved August 6, 2011, from
One of the largest geographic physical structures in the United States is the Colorado River. Human activity and its interaction with this great river have an interesting history. The resources provided by the river have been used by humans, and caused conflict for human populations as well. One of these conflicts is water distribution, and the effects drought conditions have played in this distribution throughout the southwestern region. Major cities such as Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego, and other communities in the southwest depend on the river. It provides water for over 20 million people, irrigation for 2 million acres of land, four thousand megawatts of hydroelectric energy, and over twenty million annual visitors for recreation purposes. Also, once in Mexico, the river provides water to irrigate half a million acres of farmland, and municipal and industrial water for 2 million people living in this delta region. The river distributes its flow from lakes and canals along its journey as well. Due to climate change, human demand, natural forces like evaporation and human-induced climate change this water supply is in conflict. Also, a recent change that began in March of 2014 will bring a temporary water surge to the delta of the Colorado River for the first time in many years to help restore this region, and it’s possible it could reach the Sea of Cortez once again.
The role of relationship you have with other people often has direct influence on the individual choices and belief in the life. In the short story “on the rainy river”, the author Tim O’Brien inform us about his experiences and how his interacted with a single person had effected his life so could understand himself. It is hard for anyone to be dependent on just his believes and own personal experience, when there are so many people with different belief to influence you choices and have the right choices for you self. Occasionally taking experience and knowledge of other people to help you understand and build from them your own identity and choices in life.
...ric Science (2010). A summary of the hydrologic cycle. Retrieved from http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hyd/smry.rxml. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Bengtson, Harlan. “How to Deal with Agricultural Runoff.” Bright Hub Engineering. N.p., 16 July 2010. Web. 5 May 2014.
“Tide Predicting Machines.” NOAA Tides & Currents. NOAA, 15 Oct. 2013. Web. 14 Apr. 2014.
With an area of about 144,000 sq. kilometers, Bangladesh occupies a unique geographic location spanning a stretch of land between the mighty Himalayan mountain chain to the north and the open ocean the south. The Ganges, Brahmaputra, the Meghna, and their networks are virtually the only drainage outlet for a vast river basin. The convergence of these three mighty rivers keeps Bangladesh and its people constantly on the verge of another big flood. The country is criss-crossed by a network of rivers and their tributaries numbering about 230. Silt deposited by these rivers during the rainy season results in the recurrence of floods almost every year. The three broad topographical regions are, flood plains, occupying about 80%; terraces about 8% and hills about 12% of the land area, which make at further sub-division into 20 generalized topographical units. Bangladesh has mai...
Machine learning systems can be categorized according to many different criteria. We will discuss three criteria: Classification on the basis of the underlying learning strategies used, Classification on the basis of the representation of knowledge or skill acquired by the learner and Classification in terms of the application domain of the performance system for which knowledge is acquired.
During seasons with heavier than usual monsoon rains the floodwaters which overwhelm the floodplains and drainage systems are flowing from the central regions of the country down through the lower region of the Chao Phraya River and through the heavily populated capital city of Bangkok and ...