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THE CHANGING POLITICAL-MILITARY

ENVIRONMENT: SOUTH ASIA

The security environment in South Asia has remained relatively un-settled

since the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests of May 1998. The

Indian government’s efforts to publicly emphasize the challenges

China posed in the weeks leading up to those tests—after more than

a decade of mostly sotto voce complaints—served to rupture the or-dinarily

glacial process of normalizing Sino-Indian relations. This

process always possessed a certain fragility in that the gradually de-creasing

tensions along the Sino-Indian border did not automatically

translate into increased trust between Beijing and New Delhi. Even

as both sides sought to derive tactical advantages from the confi-dence-

building measures they had negotiated since 1993—for ex-ample,

the drawdown of forces along the utterly inhospitable LAC in

the Himalayas—each ended up pursuing larger grand strategies that

effectively undercut the other’s interests. Beijing, for example, per-sisted

in covertly assisting the nuclear and missile programs of

India’s local competitor, Pakistan, while New Delhi sought in re-sponse

to develop an intermediate-range ballistic missile whose

comparative utility lay primarily in targeting China.

The repeated identification of China as a threat to Indian interests by

both Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders and other influential Indian

elites in the first half of 1998 not only underscored the fragile nature

of the Sino-Indian rapprochement but also ruptured the carefully

maintained façade of improving relations between the two coun-204 The United States and Asia

tries.1 When this public finger pointing ultimately gave way to

India’s resumption of nuclear testing on May 11, 1998 (an event ac-companied

by the Indian prime minister’s explicit claim that those

tests were driven by the hostile actions of India’s northern neighbor

over the years), security competition in South Asia—which usually

appears, at least in popular perceptions, as merely a bilateral affair

between India and Pakistan—finally revealed itself as the “regional

strategic triangle”2 it has always been.

This appendix analyzes Indian and Pakistani attitudes toward China

in the context of the triangular security competition in South Asia.

Taking the 1998 nuclear tests as its point of departure, it assesses

how China figures in the grand strategies of the two principal states

in the Indian subcontinent and identifies the principal regional

geopolitical contingencies for which the United States should pre-pare

over the next decade. Finally, it briefly analyzes the kinds of

opportunities the region offers to the USAF as it engages, even as it

prepares to hedge against, a rising China.

NUCLEAR TESTING AND THE TRIANGULAR SECURITY

COMPETITION IN SOUTH ASIA

Impact of the Nuclear Tests on Sino-Indian Relations

Although Pakistan was directly affected by the Indian nuclear tests,

these tests engaged Chinese security interests as well. To begin with,

India’s decision to resume testing made manifest New Delhi’s re-sentment

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