What Are Key Triggers Of Violent Conflict On The Middle East And Asia

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This essay will address important question of “what are key triggers of violent conflict in the Middle East and Asia and how can the Intelligence Community (IC) improve its collection and analytical efforts in regard to these issues?” The challenge to this question is that there are way too many trigger points to choose from, and the Middle East and Southwest Asia have recently been violent places to begin with. However, with that being stated, I will list what I estimate as being the top two key trigger points. One’s first presumption is that it would be oil, but it is not. First and foremost is the volatile trigger point of religious tensions, and that of the Islamic Jihadist movements. This includes the divide between Israel and Palestine, the Syrian conflict, the Druse Christians, Syrian Alawites, Shia, Sunni, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). The second trigger would be the impending shortage of water and how it will rapidly grow into a major conflict. This is not an if, but a when it will occur. How the IC and analytical communities address these key trigger points is problematic. Just how can the IC improve its collection and analytical efforts against the monitoring and analysis of the high value targets related to ISIL movements? These movements are mainly individual human in nature, so the most plausible collection that can be used is the employment of Human Intelligence (HUMINT). This can be accomplished by covert or overt means. However, entry or recruitment in these secular arenas has been, and continues to be extremely challenging. The use of National Technical Means (NTM) or Theater Technical Means (TTM) that covers the gambit of Signals, Imagery, and Measures and Signatures Intelligence (SIGINT... ... middle of paper ... ... an intelligence issue. From an analytical perspective the NGA has dedicated a few individuals to lead the Human Geography Working Group, and all the rest of the group are a “coalition of the willing” who have prospective equities if hostilities break out over tensions. In conclusion, we have only touched on my top two trigger points for violent conflict. There are others that are worth mentioning, such as the monitoring and enforcement of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran 's nuclear program, which began with the adoption of the Joint Plan of Action, adopted October 18, 2015 , and one that is purely speculative in nature; the impact emerging youth demographics. The IC and their analysts will continue to be challenged by the multitude of trigger points for violent conflict. Let’s hope that our technology and analytical methodologies can keep pace.

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