TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Time series is a set of data collected or arranged in a sequence of order over a successive equal increment of time (Lazim M.A, 2011). Time series also described as a sequence of data within a uniform time interval in the terms of years or months or days or hours and so forth.
Why am I interested in time series analysis?
Time series analysis is a quantitative or statistical technique used to forecast certain set of data over a time frame and can be evaluated for accuracy by applying certain measurement criteria. The application of time series data involves the formulation of mathematical models, which are estimated using significantly large amount of data to mimic the environment under study and therefore, generate the forecast value. Time series analysis and its applications have become increasingly important in various fields of research, such as business, economics, engineering, medicine, environometrics, social sciences, politics, and others.
It is interesting to forecast or in other word to predict the data over certain time interval to provide information for decision making activities, particularly in the area of planning and controlling. Good planning procedure would help to face of the ever-increasing uncertainties in the future. For example, if the value (sales, stock prices, etc) of certain product will fall next year, then the decision maker might want to plan of an action that would help to reduce or minimize losses and vise versa. Time series is used by social scientist in population series such as birth and mortality rate. In medicine, blood pressure over time can be used to evaluate drugs used in reducing the symptoms of hypertension. Time series analysis is also useful for environmental data, for example the tsunami waves, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, glacier calving, meteorite impacts, flood and so forth to forecast the potential of the natural disasters to happen again in future. Therefore, prevention and controlling will be able to save lives and avoid tragedies. This would be an honour if I am able to do so.
Time series analysis would be an advantage to monitor the progress achieved, in order to determine whether the set target is currently being realized or can be achieved in the foreseeable future. By using the historical data over time, we will be able to foresee and estimate the future if the most suitable method is used. The objectives of time series analysis are to identify and describe the underlying structure and the phenomenon as depicted by the sequence observations in the series and to determine the best mathematical model to fit the data series and use the model to generate forecast value.
The two main issues in this case are the project analysis and financial forecasting. The project should be analyzed before doing the forecasting, because any recommendations on the project will affect financial forecasting for the next two years.
This episode of "30 Days" Morgan Spurlock travels to a Navajo Indian reservation in an attempt to experience modern Native American life. While on the reservation he wants to know it if it’s a link to the past; a cultural escape, or is it simple a place time, and the rest of the world forgot.
A technical analysis uses historical data as a means of predicting currency movements. The technical analyst believes that history repeats itself over and over again. Technical analysis is not concerned with the reasons for currency movements (for example, interest rates or inflation). Instead, it believes that historical currency movements are a clear indication of future ones.
DJ rising is about a boy named Marley Johnnywas Diego-Dylan. Marley is not a very rich
Culture Centers in Higher Education: Perspectives on Identity, Theory, and Practice is a powerful and enlightening book by Lori D. Patton. Patton is a higher education scholar who focuses on issues of race theories, African American experiences on college campuses, student development theories, campus environments, inclusion, and multicultural resources centers at higher education institutions. She has a variety of publications and was one of the first doctoral students to complete a dissertation that focused exclusively on Black culture centers entitled, “From Protest to Progress: An Examination of the Relevance, Relationships and Roles of Black Culture Centers.” In Campus Culture Centers in Higher Education Patton collaborates with many higher education scholars and faculty members to discuss various types of racial and ethnic culture centers in higher education, their overall effectiveness, relevance, and implications for improvement in relation to student retention and success. Diversity, inclusion and social justice have become prevalent issues on all college campuses, and this piece of literature gives a basic introduction for individuals unfamiliar with cultural resource centers. This book successfully highlights contributions of culture centers and suggestions for how centers can be reevaluated and structured more efficiently. For many faculty, administrators, and student affairs professionals unfamiliar with the missions and goals of culture centers, Patton’s text provides a concrete introduction and outline for the functionality of these resources and also offers recommendations and improvements for administrators managing multicultural centers.
The purpose of economic indicators is to provide for researchers and analysts the ability to interpreter economic data. Economic indicators are the main source of prediction of market behavior. They are also detailed explanations of how to analyze various changes over a business cycle.
The next model is the Quadratic Trend Model. The quadratic formula uses the least-squares method to forecast and can be written as Yi =b_0+ b_1 X_1+ b_2 X_2. In this formula the only difference is b_2 X_2 represents the estimated quadratic effect on Y. Figure 1-6 represents the comparison between the linear and quadratic
Sophocles wrote the classic tragedy Antigone in 496-406 BC this play dramatizes the conflict between self-morality versus human law by representing each conflict by two characters; Antigone and Creon. In this play Antigone decides to bury her brother Polyneices regardless of the king Creon’s decree. After Antigone is caught Creon decides that the punishment of death will be enforced. This sets of a chain reaction of conflicts between Antigone and Creon, both filled with pride and will. The chorus states that the gods vigorously punish the proud, yet punishment brings wisdom. ( )
Addressing the trials of operating in a continually changing environment and realizing forecasts can only
Jane Eyre is the story of a journey to be loved. Jane seeks not just for romantic love but for being valued. Throughout the course of the book, Jane must learn how to gain love without sacrificing herself in the process. Only after proving her self-sufficiency to herself can she marry Rochester and not be asymmetrically dependent upon him as her “master.” The marriage can be one between equals. As Jane says: “I am my husband’s life as fully as he is mine. . . . To be together is for us to be at once as free as in solitude, as gay as in company.
Use forecasting tools to prepare accurate forecasts for CMO and measure forecast accuracy every three months.
monsoon,wart,inflasion,foreign exchange reserves public debt and foreign debt, budgetary deficit, domestic savings and capital output ratio, infrastructure. Government policy, interest rate, taxation policy, balance of trade, employement,political situation and international developments are some of the important economic indicators. A favorable monsoon has appositive impact on stock markets.
The weather forecasters use probability and statistics just as much if not more than any other field on earth. As weather patterns are not fully understood and are dynamic, analysts have to rely heavily on past weather systems and patterns to “guess'; or estimate the possibility of present weather systems to behave in similar manners. If the probability of its behavior, subject to certain factors, in one manner over another is high forecasters make decisions as to how to advise the public.
The purpose of this paper is to explain the advances being made in technology and algorithms in helping advance the accuracy of forecasting. It will contrast the forecasting methods of several decades ago with forecasting methods in use today. In discussing how errors can accumulate over time and providing simple mathematical formulas as examples, this paper intends to show how the repetition of minor errors can affect the accuracy of weather predictions.
Business forecasting can be used in a wide variety of contexts, and by a wide variety of businesses. For example, effective forecasting can determine sales based on attendance at a trade show, or the customer demand for products and services (Business and Economic Forecasting, p.1). One of the most important assumptions of business forecasters is that the past acts as an important guide for the future. It is important to note that forecasters must consider a number of new information, including rapidly changing economic conditions and globalization, when creating business forecasts based on past sales.