The general public opinion polls being analyzed and compared include the following two: a poll by the Pew organization on the topic of outside campaign spending and a poll by the Rasmussen organization on the Electoral College. Before proceeding to a comparison or analysis, the property in question for both must be identified because it will allow for analysis of aspects such as proper sample sizes and methodologies in regards to the question, which will allow for any discrepancies to appear. These discrepancies will be the evidence in support of the conclusion regarding the strength of one poll over the other. The property in question for the Pew poll measures the public’s knowledge about a growth in the amount of money being spent by outside campaign groups (Super PAC’s) on elections. In the Rasmussen poll, the property in question gauges the sentiment towards the idea of eliminating the Electoral College in order to make the popular vote the only method to select a U.S. president. Both are political topics, but the approach each took in collecting the data was distinct. Here are some of the data facts provided by the organizations. The sample size for the Pew poll was a group of 1,010 adults residing within the United States, with the sample population coming from people who have a landline or cellphone number within the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The sample size for the Rasmussen poll was a collection of 1,000 “Likely Voters”, with the sample population taken from pool of landline telephone numbers and online surveys. The sample size used by both of the organizations is large enough to avoid any hastiness according to Table 10-1(354), where a sample of 1,000 yields an error of margin of about plus or minus ... ... middle of paper ... ...ling or the results. The sample was sufficient enough to prevent any hastiness or weak generalizations and the process by which they went about collecting the data was completely random in terms of selecting a balanced and equal number of participants. The target population was the general American public and these methods seem to accurately reflect the target’s characteristics. With the techniques conducted by Rasmussen it becomes possible for a bias to creep in. The main issue comes with the online surveys because, despite being sent to a specific set of people, the amount of those who decided to participate or if it was the correct person can not be out of the control of the pollsters, which is one aspect was. The target population for this then, the active voters in the U.S., becomes harder to connect to due to the lapse in full randomly selected participants.
Campbell County, Kentucky offers a very interesting case study of politics at work. The many different variables that can possibly affect how counties as a whole vote are present in Campbell County, and the interplay between all these variables is the topic of this paper. In order to accurately predict the outcome of the election, it is important to be familiar with all the different socio-economic factors that influence the daily lives of the people who are pulling the levers in the voting booths. This paper will give a brief description of Campbell County, followed by a survey of how they have voted in the past eight Presidential Elections. The best kind of presidential candidates for this county will be discussed, the results of the 1996 Presidential Elections, as well as what the different parties are doing in Campbell County in order to achieve better results. As a result of the analysis that was required for this paper, I will show sufficient evidence to support my conclusion that George W. Bush will win Campbell County over Al Gore by a margin of 54% - 44%.
In the wake of the 2016 general election, Michael Lind published a piece on The Smart Set entitled: Can Electoral Reform Save America? This piece centered around a single question on the ballot of a single state, question 5 in Maine, and the impact on electoral reform it could have for the country according to Lind. Using deconstruction, Lind analyzes the idea of a Ranked Choice polling system, rather than the first-past-the-post system that is currently in place in the United States. His allusions to the past as well as separate government entities globally, as well as a deconstruction of both polling systems and the impact they have (or could have) allows the reader to absorb information and produce their own personal opinion.
John Chambers of the University of Florida measures the difference between "actual" and "perceived" polarizat...
According to a study done by Nonprofit Vote only “an estimated 58.7% of eligible voters turned out to vote” ("Voter Turnout" ) in 2012’s presidential election, which is below the 62% that was achieved in 2008. (Ginsberg 306). According to the United States Census Bureau in 2012 71.2 percent of Americans reported that they were registered to vote, but only 61.8 reported that they actually did so. ("Voting and Registration"). While each source didn’t report the exact same statistics in America these percentages are considered highs in political participation. Even worse, in midterm elections voter turnout is normally closer to 33% and even lower for any local elections. (Ginsberg 306). While we may consider any of those statistics good for America, looking at world democracies we are trailing far behind, in many “European countries and other western democracies [the] national voter turnout is usually between 70 to 90 percent.”(Ginsberg 306). The question is then asked why don’t American’s vote, which is then an...
Bias More perceive liberal bias than conservative bias” George Gallup.Web. September 2011 [cited January 2012]
TerBeek, Calvin. “’Swing’ voters are still partisan.” Chicago Turbine. N.p., 20 Nov. 2013. Web. 8 Dec. 2013. .
Opinion polls play a major role in politics, they can be used by the Government
Zorn, Eric. “One thing polls show accurately: Changed minds." Chicago Tribune Nov 9, 2004: 1.
In the last three decades, polls became an important instrument for the media, especially television networks, to determine who wins and who loses the election. Caprini conducted a study about the impact of the early prediction of a winner in the 1980 presidential race by the television networks. He observed that, shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern standard time, NBC announced that, according to its analysis of exit poll data, Ronald Reagan was to be the next president of the United States (Caprini, 1984, p. 866). That early call was controversial because the polls in many states were still open at the time and, in some of th...
We are constantly asked about our opinions. From asking questions about who you think will win the super bowl, what celebrity wore the best dress on the red carpet to who will you be voting for president. Public opinion polls are everywhere. Politicians have long relied on public opinion polls throughout presidential elections. Unfortunately, public opinion polls are not always a good source to rely on. A good example is in 1948 when the Chicago daily tribune announced a winner for a presidential election. The famous headline “Dewey Defeats Truman”. The tribune had relied on polls to come to that conclusion. This is a mistake that most likely will keep on happening because public opinion polls are either inaccurate or misleading mostly because
Gott, J. Richard, and Wesley N. Colley. "Median Statistics in Polling." ScienceDirect Nov. 2008: 1396-408. Print.
When polls are done right they can be very accurate. Polls are taken by using an area code and then the rest of the numbers they enter in randomly until they get a certain number of responses from that area code. They do that for lots of areas to get responses from all demographics. Then they average out the responses
In a recently published paper, Adam Bonica and his associates have estimated that 0.01 percent of American households (one hundredth of one percent) contributed more than 40 percent of campaign contributions in 2012. This level is far higher than had been the case in recent years. In 1990 for example only about 10 percent of donations came from this small segment of the population. However, even the 40 percent figure represents an under-estimate. It does not include contributions to organizations that were not required to disclose their donors. Were they to be included, the figure would be even
In terms of the research itself, I feel that the sample was appropriately selected; however the results may change if posts from other social media sites were included. Also, it would be interesting to see if further research in to other elections, not just those for the United States congress, would produce the same results.
One of the major reasons why survey research may not be effective is that the survey instruments are less useful than they should be. “Instrument design is a three-phase process with numerous issues within each phase: (a) developing the instrument design strategy, (b) constructing and refining the measurement questions, and (c) drafting and refining the instrument” (Cooper & Schindler, 2014 p. 324). There are several issues with each phase but the four that I believe are the four possible major faults of survey instrument design is: (1) disguising objectives and sponsors, (2) using multiple choice questions, (3) introducing sensitive and ego-involving information too early, and (4) the sources of existing questions.