The Impact of the Oil Crisis on the American Economy
With the current spike in oil prices, many American consumers have asked, 'what is going on?' In order to fully understand the current situation and how it is affecting the economy one must look at a variety of factors including: the history of oil crisis in the United States, causes of the current situation, and possible outcomes for the future. It is only after meticulous research in these topics that one is prepared to answer the question, 'what is the best possible solution to the oil crisis?'
Although many critics have not yet labeled the current oil situation a 'crisis,' there is sufficient evidence that it is becoming more severe and is beginning to reflect oil crisis of the past. The current crude oil price spike began early in 1999 due to a variety of factors. Struggle in the Middle East along with minimal policy changes from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the U.S. Government has kept prices high to this very day.
The History of Oil Crisis Within the United States
Before looking at the current oil situation, it is important to understand the times of oil crisis in our country?s past. Through the years between 1970 and 2000, the price of oil has risen and fallen in often-drastic amounts. It is these price fluxuations in crude oil that has caused fuel prices to vary and the economy of the United States to be volatile.
Throughout the past twenty years there have been several drastic changes in oil prices. These dramatic shifts are helpful to look at because of their impact upon the economy and the oil industry. During this time period there are three major shifts in oil price that can be linked to specific events in world history (Miller, 1998). First, the Arab oil embargo of 1973 caused a widespread oil crisis and brought crude oil from three dollars a barrel to a staggering twelve dollars a barrel. Second, the 1979 Iranian revolution caused another crisis that brought crude oil prices to an all time high of thirty-six dollars per barrel. Finally, the third major shift occurred in 1991 due to the Persian Gulf War (Miller, 1998).
Source: The Energy Information Administration (Hakes, 1998).
Oil crisis of 1973
The first large price shift in oil prices came in 1973. The oil crisis of 1973 began in the Mediterranean because of a war. T...
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Johnson, T. (2000, February 29). Amid heating crisis, New Jersey residents look for energy alternatives. Knight- Ridder/Tribune Business News, 63, 6.
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The Economist. (1999, April 24). Fuel cells hit the road. Pp. 77.
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Williams, J. L. (1999). Oil price history and analysis. [On-Line]. Abstract from: www.wtrg.com/prices.htm.
In this essay, the author
Explains that the oil crisis of 1973 began in the mediterranean because of a war, and the yom kippur war resulted from an attack on israel by syria and egypt.
Explains that the oil embargo was imposed by the then-powerful cartel, the organization of petroleum exporting countries (opec).
Explains how nixon tried to bring peace between the arab states and israel, but the scandals of watergate overshadowed his efforts.
Explains that oil prices have been rising at an unprecedented rate, reminiscent of the seventies shocks. these dramatic price increases have both impacted the u.s. and world economies.
Explains that oil's recent price fluxuation was caused by opec, the u.s. dependence on foreign oil, and the recent conflicts in the middle east.
Explains that with the continued rise of petroleum, the government and other sources have begun to look at possible solutions to this problem. the impact of a virtually doubling in residential home heating costs along with sharply higher gasoline prices has justified drastic measures.
Explains the low-income home energy assistance program, originally established in 1981 and reauthorized several times. the program reimburses needy consumers who have responded to higher oil prices and made rational decisions.
Analyzes johnson, t., and knight- ridder/tribune business news. amid heating crisis, new jersey residents look for energy alternatives.
Analyzes how richardson says proposals to alleviate oil crisis.
Analyzes how heating oil prices ride crude rally to record high.
Explains that the current oil price spike began in 1999 due to a variety of factors, including the history of oil crisis in the united states, causes, and possible outcomes for the future.
Explains that oil prices have fluctuated between 1970 and 2000, causing volatility in the united states' economy. the arab oil embargo of 1973 caused a widespread oil crisis, the 1979 iranian revolution caused another crisis and the persian gulf war.
Explains that the oil crisis of 1973 affected motorists, airlines, and the economy. the decline in the u.s. auto industry contributed to the recession.
Explains that the oil embargo ended in 1974, but a second oil shock jolted the industrial world in the winter of 1978-1979.
Explains that the third major oil crisis in u.s. history began in 1991 as a result of the persian gulf war.
Analyzes how opec's increase in production led to a rise in crude prices.
Explains that the united states' dependence on imported oil will grow to sixty-six percent by 2020, far higher than the record set in 1998 of fifty percent.
Analyzes how the conflict in the middle east is threatening to end the longest-running economic expansion in united states history.
Argues that the u.s.'s dependence on foreign oil has a significant impact on the economy.
Explains that the strategic petroleum reserve was authorized in 1975 to create a below-ground reserve of crude oil that could be tapped in the event of an interruption in supply.
Opines that the proposed reduction in the tax of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene would not cost the government anything.
Explains that alaskan oil exports declined from 1.50 million barrels per day to 1.05 mbd, greatly diminishing any west coast production surplus that might have once existed.
Opines that the heating oil crisis is in full swing and that a dialogue with the public, industry, and government is needed to solve it.
Reports that high gasoline prices in the u.s. have revived interest in electric vehicles, but it would take more than soaring gas prices to move american motorists away from conventionally powered vehicles.
Opines that alternative fuel sources are the best solution to the oil crisis.
Explains that energy efficiency expands the economy and creates jobs.
Compares slavin, b., and sheets, k. on the mideast crisis erupting on two fronts.
The terrorist attack on the World Trade Center in 2001 was a devastating day for America’s oil industry. Oil prices skyrocketed and fear was put in America. In his article “Take $10 off the Price of Oil,” Steve Hanke states that from 2001 to 2004 oil prices more than doubled reaching $55 per barrel due to Bush’s order for the government to purchase 700 million barrels of oil that caused prices to rise from storage cost. On top of this, oil prices were high to help preserve the oil supply because the nation was afraid oil imports from the Middle East would come to a halt. The September 11th tragedy was not the only time America suffered with high oil prices. In the 1970s some foreign countries stopped exporting oil, which made America fear an oil shortage if imports stopped. America was and remains too reliant on foreign countries for oil. If America were to suffer through another depression such as the Great Depression, then difficulty to make a descant living would be even more than after the September 11th tragedy.
In this essay, the author
Argues that america needs to be more conservative with the oil supply. being self-reliant on oil would lower the gas and diesel prices for individuals and business owners.
Argues that the u.s. could be less conservative with oil by choosing to export oil to foreign countries.
Explains that high oil prices in the u.s. are affecting american families and small businesses. they rely on people on vacations to earn their living.
Opines that u.s. oil output will overtake saudi arabia's by 2020. treasury and risk nov.
Quotes zezima, katie, to urge the state to intervene in the case of truckers in maine, feeling high costs of diesel fuel.
Argues that america should stop importing and using oil from foreign countries for the production of fuels to benefit the american people.
Explains that if the u.s. stopped importing oil, the demand for oil would rise, and jobs would be created in the oilfield.
Explains crane, keith, and hanke, steve h. imported oil and u.s. national security.
In 2004, crude oil producers around the world expected a 1.5% growth in the world’s demand for crude oil. The actual growth rate was more than double the projections at 3.3%. This growth was due to rapidly industrializing of foreign countries such as, China and India. Therefore the lack of crude oil affected the supply of gasoline to consumers at the pump.
In this essay, the author
Explains that the price of gas has increased significantly in the last two years due to a fluctuation in supply and demand of not only gasoline but also crude oil.
Explains that in 2004, crude oil producers around the world expected a 1.5% growth in world's demand for oil. the actual growth rate was more than double the projections at 3.3%.
Explains that unexpected production difficulties contributed to the supply of gasoline. the insurgent attacks and the war in iraq made it difficult to properly export the oil.
Explains that the gulf coast hurricanes in 2004 disrupted the output of crude oil in u.s. refiners. the workers strike in norway severely affected production.
Compares the u.s.'s consumption of gasoline and crude oil over the last twenty years.
Explains that the price of gasoline is affected by many different factors, but the biggest influence is crude oil. the federal trade commission conducted a regression analysis of the u.s.
Explains that the importing of crude oil affects gasoline prices. the u.s. refiners import 60% of their oil supply due to depleting supplies.
Explains that the clean air act requires that certain geographical areas have various blends of gasoline until the area has met a particular set of clean air standards.
Explains that state taxes drive up the final price of gasoline. in 2004, the average state tax on gasoline was $0.225 per gallon.
Opines that the united states needs to slow down its fuel consumption and decrease its demand.
Economic instability is perhaps the category that engulfs most states with petroleum-depending economies, including economic giants like Russia. The downfall of these producers is particularly evident given the current and increasing downfall of oil world prices of more than 50% in the last six months. The increase in domestic supply of oil in North America that rendered the United States less dependable on petroleum imports undermined the influence of exporting countries, particularly the leverage that the once powerful tycoons of the OPEC possessed over international trade. These countries can no longer engage in an embargo like in the 1973, for they are even struggling with enormous deficits to meet their citizens’ basic
In this essay, the author
Analyzes how the case of venezuela portrays this foredoomed story to the letter.
Argues that diplomacy is the least costly alternative to solve oil-related conflicts, as it involves the lowest risk due to coercive military or economic intervention.
Analyzes the relationship between economic instability and political unrest in the article blood barrels: why oil wealth fuels conflict.
Explains that ross suggests several solutions or at least ameliorating measures that the international community can take to manage crises.
INTRODUCTION
With 82.1 million barrels extracted everyday, it is hard to believe that a resource that the world so heavily relies on will soon be gone (Aleklett, 2012, p.17). This paper will explore the effects of the oil crash on society and how we can address the sustainability and find a solution. In this paper, I will support my opinion that something must be done about the consumption and extraction rates of oil and that we cannot live like this forever. In the first paragraphs, I will compare the negatives and positives of oil to show that there are more negatives than there are positives. This will lead into an examination of what the world will be when oil peaks.
In this essay, the author
Argues that the oil crash is a social problem and that alternatives are needed.
Opines that the end of oil will create a huge consequence for food production.
Recommends that nations participate in energy research, support sustainable local food systems, invest in renewable energy, and strive for international resource cooperation agreements to prepare for the dwindling of oil.
Opines that a transition in energy sources will require investment shifting from different sectors of the economy that will lead to research and conservation of oil.
Concludes that the consumption and extraction of oil is out of hand and needs to be reconsidered by all.
Explains that oil is the most important raw material and the bloodstream of the world economy.
Argues that oil has become a common source that its consumption rates go unnoticed. the world's fossil fuel reserves are equal to 2860bn tones of carbon dioxide and only 31% can be burned.
Explains that the energy profit for coal has continued to dwindle over the past decades. wind power, or solar photovoltaic, is renewable and the capacity for production can be expanded.
Speir, Robert A, Investigation into the current run-up in gasoline, (2004-2008) Retrieved 5/18/2007 from Http://www.iic-inc.com/curr.shtml
In this essay, the author
Explains the price of gasoline, which is a mixture of lighter liquid hydrocarbons, and used chiefly for internal-combustion engines.
Explains that the prices paid by consumers at the pump reflect the cost to produce and deliver gasoline to consumers.
Explains that the average retail price for gasoline is higher in certain states or regions than in others. other factors contribute to regional and local differences in gasoline prices aside from taxes.
Explains that the proximity of refineries to crude oil supplies can be a factor, as well as shipping costs from the refinery to market.
Explains that competition in the local market is another reason why gasoline prices can be different. consumers in isolated areas may have to choose between higher local prices and the inconvenience of driving some distance.
Explains that supply disruptions, such as scheduled or unscheduled refinery maintenance, can slow or stop production of gasoline, prompting a bidding war for available supplies.
Explains that california consumes substantial amounts of gasoline — about 16 billion gallons per year. crude oil comes from within-state oil wells, alaska, and foreign sources.
Explains that california is isolated from other refining centers in the u.s. because the federal government as an air quality "non-attainment" area designates most of california.
Explains that gasoline prices rose to historically high levels in the united states between mid-december 2004-mid-march 2005 due to the falling value of the u.s. dollar, which is used by opec.
Explains that domestic oil companies are no longer building crucial pre-season gasoline inventories. this is needed to augment supply when refineries conduct post-heating season maintenance turnarounds, and to reduce supply vulnerability when unforeseen events occur.
Explains that while the price of a gallon of gas fluctuates without rhyme, it is much easier to understand when you know the factors that go into that price.
Cites california energy commission, media and public communications office, (1994-2008), pageupdated 03/17/2007.
Cites specialized information services, a primer on gasoline prices, publication number doe/eia-x040, released june 2007.
Rich, Motoko, and Catherine Rampell. "Rising Oil Prices Pose Threat To US Economy." New York Times 25 Feb. 2011 [United States of America] : 1+. Print.
In this essay, the author
Opines that president obama should intervene to bring justice to the libyan people and prevent any further damage on the us economy.
Describes how students of the university of illinois protested against libyan leader moammar al-gadhafi's bombing of tripoli and benghazi.
Explains that libya is the fourth largest oil producing country according to opec. the lack of oil production has put libya's economy in disarray, and the united states' economy.
Opines that the united states has had some economic problems in the last couple of years, including the rampant increases in unemployment and the failed bailout projects.
Explains that obama had his staff look into every possible action to stop the riots and force gadhafi to resign as leader of libya.
Opines that obama's second option would require the cooperation of all the european countries, since gadhafi has been known to take his family to other countries for vacation and business.
Explains that obama's third option was to push for a no-fly zone to be placed over libya. this would solve two problems at once: ground military aircraft from strafing protesters and prevent more pro-gadhafi mercenaries from being airlifted from neighboring african countries.
Explains that obama's military defense team discussed direct military pressure against gadhafi’s army. the only obama would result in such means would be if ally european nations assisted.
Explains that the fifth and sixth options are similar in that they are both plans to condemn libya; the only difference is how to do it.
Argues that skeptics of the situation would oppose obama's intervention with libya. they would argue that the united states does not need to get involved in any more international conflict because it should worry about domestic issues first.
Argues that the libyan problem will resolve itself as it did with the recent riots in egypt. the united states cannot take the risk of waiting because of the spike in the cost of energy.
Opines that after thorough research, the obama administration has to take action in solving the conflict in libya. the university of illinois student protesters are right to demand action to bring justice back to the libyan people.
Cites hermes, fatemah, organization for the petroleum exporting countries and rich, motoko, and catherine rampell.
Reifenberg, Anne. For Oil Traders, 1996 is looking Bad or Worse. The Wall Street Journal. Nov 20 '95. p. C1, C14
In this essay, the author
Explains that an ice is no longer required to power a vehicle, but adapts the fuel tank and fueling port to accept propane, methane and gasoline.
Compares the cost of retrofitting a cng vehicle to that of an ordinary car, stating that the installation of high-pressure fueling stations is feasible.
Explains that methanol and ethanol are proven viable alternative fuels. methanol is a desirable fuel whose combustion products are less harmful to the environment than those of gasoline.
Explains that methanol has a 100% octane rating and lower overall emissions and higher energy efficiency than gasoline fueled vehicles.
Explains that methanol has a solution to corrosiveness. volkswagen's fuel tank, pump, and carburetor were coated with bronze, copper, or cadmium.
Argues that the distribution system in the u.s. is an excellent reason not to convert to methanol. brazil did it in just 10 years, most of that conversion taking place in one year.
Explains that ethanol is similar to methanol, with all of the same drawbacks and advantages. brazil has been powering vehicles with alcohol since the seventies due to rising cost and dependence on gasoline importation.
Explains that ethanol is a viable and feasible alternative fuel in brazil, but is it feasible in the u.s.?
Explains that hydrogen is the last alternative fuel warranting significant attention and it will be the fuel of the future if no new methods of propulsion and power are discovered in the next century.
Explains that the persian gulf war piqued interest in alternative fuels, and new clean-air laws make hydrogen seem more sensible than it once did.
Quotes bond, peggy. petrol-fuelled automobile here to stay, says iea. energy economist, may 1993.
Explains pyle, jeff, low cost coating stands up to alternative fuels, applied science and technology, may 14, 1993.
Cites wilson, david gordon, and anthony c. gordon. turbine cars: major contender, bumpy road.
Explains that demand for gasoline has been the driving force in utilization and depletion of crude petroleum. alternative fuels include alcohol, gasohols, liquefied and gaseous natural gas, and hydrogen.
Explains that lpg (liquefied petroleum gas) has been used in vehicles since the 1920's and powers nearly 500,000 vehicles in the u.s.
Explains the advantages of the gas turbine engine over the conventional ice.
Explains that alternative vehicle fuels do not offer viable alternative to gasoline in the u.s.
Sabin, Paul. “Crisis and Continuity in U.S. Oil Politica, 1965-1980.” Journal of American History 99.1. (2012): 177-86 History Reference Center. Web. 5 Feb. 2014.
In this essay, the author
Explains how the us came back from a major war that had their soldiers fighting against communism in korea. the american families began to settle down and start their own family.
Explains that the baby boom generation began with an overflow of soldiers coming back from the end of the korean war, which led to an increase in marriages.
Explains that inflation is the main cause for all booms and recessions that no one wants.
Explains that oil caused many problems for the us in the 60s, from the oil spills into the ocean to causing oil prices to go up.
Explains that the 1960s were different from what they had expected, from oil spills causing major damage, rebelling teenagers, an overcrowding generation, and inflation that caused laws to be set.
Cites sabin, paul. crisis and continuity in u.s. oil politica, 1965-1980.
Cites benson, sonia, daniel e. brannen, and rebecca valentine. "baby boom generation." uxl encyclopedia of u.s. history.
Crude oil stocks are at long-term lows, with OECD inventories approaching the 2,300 mmbbl range and US inventories well below 640 mmbbl. US motor gasoline as well as distillates inventories are at record lows, just below 200 and 100 mmbl, respectively. Domestic demand, however, continues to grow, with robust mogas demand at around 8.5 million barrels per day trending upwards. A high demand for distillates at 4.2 millon barrels per day is surprising considering the warmer-than-expected winter. DOE data displays continued total inventory outperformance throughout 1999, peaking at withdrawals of 51.8 million barrels in 4Q99. Opec compliance has remained high. Low crack spreads indicate refinery discipline.
In this essay, the author
Explains simmons and company's oil and gas macro outlook, based on inventory-price dependence. crude oil stocks are at long-term lows, while domestic demand continues to grow.
Analyzes simmons' supply and demand forecast for 2000, which predicts an average supply shortage of 1.2 mmbl/d, while 2001 estimates depict opec production remaining stable.
Explains that only saudi aramco and kuwait had any notable spare capacity to put online during 2000. the opec middle east and latin american rig count remains very low, supporting the capacity constraint theory.
Opines that us oil directed rig count has not yet rebounded, but is expected to do so throughout 2000, accounting for some of the estimated 2.2% non-opec production increase in 2001.
Opines that simmons is in line with most analysts, revising their 2000 and 2001 estimates upwards after the feb 23 gcc and thursday's ministers' meetings.
Analyzes how winter demand remains essential for gas price stability. storage is continuously being outperformed, suggesting that discussed inventory depletion is real.
Explains that storage inventories below 1000 bcf, last seen in 1q94, 96 and 97, result in 3 month-strip prices above $2/mc
Opines that gas-directed rig count remains at high levels, though having eased a little in late 1999, while oil-direction
Analyzes the importance given to the increase in effective decline rates of newly developed producing wells in the gom, which has risen to levels well above 40% per annum since 1993 and 50% p.a.
Opines that simmons remains in line with most analysts on its estimates, though veering slightly lower in its storage level forecasts. constraints in quality rigs are not expected within the next 6-12 months.
Mast, Tom R. Over a Barrel: A Simple Guide to the Oil Shortage. Austin: Hayden, 2005. Print.
In this essay, the author
Opines that the united states has no alternative options because of the fossil fuel shortage. the key to the prevention of this future is renewable energy.
Explains that the use of fossil fuels on a large scale, specifically coal, began with the industrial revolution in england.
Compares the consumption of fossil fuels and renewables in the u.s.
Explains that government involvement in promoting alternative energies in the u.s. began with the passage of the clean air act.
Concludes that future dependence on fossil fuels is preventable with research and development on alternative and renewable technologies and government involvement.
Describes the u.s. energy information administration (eia)'s independent statistics and analysis.
Explains that humans have used alternative sources of energy for centuries, even before it became popular in the 1970s. america's energy usage is divided into four sections/sectors, transportation, commercial, residential, and industrial
Explains that renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest-growing energy sources, but fossil fuels will continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040.
Explains alters, sandra m. energy supplies, sustainability, and costs. 2011 ed. wylie: information plus.
States mast, tom r., over a barrel: a simple guide to the oil shortage, austin: hayden, 2005.