The Difficulty of Forecasting Economic Events

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Explain the difficulty of forecasting economic events The quote, “the difficulty is that forecasting requires more than foreseeing the possibility of an event; in the first place, it requires that a timetable be attached to the probability. This distinction is well enough known to have led to the long-standing comment about economic forecasters that they ‘ have forecast ten of the last two recessions’ is saying that, it cannot be forecasted to exactly what is going to happen only what may happen and what could happen when something may happen. It is saying that with the number of possibilities economists have forecasted a lot of things with not many of them happening. The quote is also saying there is more to the job that guessing what could happen and that a timetable to all of this is needed. Adam Smith (1723-1790) Adam smith was born in Scotland in 1723; he showed promise as a young student and entered university on a scholarship. He taught at universities and because a professor at the age of 28, until 1763. Between 1764 and 1766 Adam Smith became a private tutor to a duke, this made him financially secure for life. Adam smith then wrote the book, which was considered very influential: The wealth of nations. In 1778 he became the commissioner for customs in Scotland, . Smith never married and lived with his mother until she died. Adam fitted the profile of an eccentric professor often getting very deep into thought and loosing touch with what he was doing. Adam smith died on 17th of July 1790. Adams main theories were, Human nature economic growth, Adam quoted “The uniform, constant and uninterrupted effort of every man to better his condition, the principle from which public and national, as well as private opulence is originally derived, is frequently powerful enough to maintain the natural progress of things toward improvement, in spite both of the extravagance of government, and of the greatest errors of administration. Like the unknown principle of animal life, it frequently restores health and vigor to the constitution, in spite, not only of the disease, but of the absurd prescriptions of the doctor.” Although Adam Smith never distinctly faces the problem of the supreme end of life, nor asks himself whether virtue and morality are merely means to the attainment of happiness, or whether they are ends in themselves irrespective of happiness, he leaves little doubt that happiness really occupies in his system very much the same place that it does in the systems of professed Utilitarians.
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