The Cheesecake Factory Essay

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I am recommending a short of The Cheesecake Factory (“CAKE” or the “Company”). Company Overview The Cheesecake Factory joined the casual dining sector in 1978 with the introduction of its namesake concept. For “The Cheesecake Factory” brand, the Company’s identity and reputation for offering high-quality desserts results in a substantially higher dessert mix at about 16%, generating a higher average check at over $20 in the past two years. The Company has per unit sales at over $10.5 MM, a leading metric among its peers. This short thesis is built on the assertion that CAKE’s consecutive 26 quarter streak of positive same-store sales is likely unsustainable. Despite the per unit sales average being more than double that of the segment average, CAKE’s contribution margin is among the lowest across the peer group at more than a 15% discount to the peer average. The Company operates 201 Company-owned restaurants: 188 under the The Cheesecake Factory brand, 12 under the Grand Lux Café brand, and one under the RockSugar …show more content…

In 2015, The Cheesecake Factory was named for the second year in a row to Fortune magazine’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” list. A substantial part of the Company’s FCF has been spent on buybacks in the last three years. The Company’s buyback has accounted for about one-third of EPS growth. CAKE maintains a strong balance sheet. CAKE’s international business remains small and offers a higher return per unit based on the royalty-driven arrangement. Each international unit is expected to contribute about $0.01 to EPS. The Company recently raised its dividend, now $0.96 on an annualized basis. This dividend may provide some downside support. Selected Catalysts • Negative traffic trends continue • Margins erode because of pricing, food cost inflation, and labor cost pressures escalating • Valuation is re-rated to adjust for lower growth

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