The purpose of this paper is to explain the advances being made in technology and algorithms in helping advance the accuracy of forecasting. It will contrast the forecasting methods of several decades ago with forecasting methods in use today. In discussing how errors can accumulate over time and providing simple mathematical formulas as examples, this paper intends to show how the repetition of minor errors can affect the accuracy of weather predictions.
Introduction
Back in the days of Thomas Jefferson and George Washington, weather observations were recorded daily but not hourly or by the minute. Such repetition of data didn’t seem useful. After the telegraph was invented which enabled information about weather data to be transmitted across the country, they still reported only once a day. In contrast to today's virtual world of weather, making 24/7 use of climate data from satellites, buoys in the oceans, the ability to record worldwide temperatures, worldwide rainfall records, track wind speeds, pressure pulses of solar wind, carbon dioxide levels, tornadoes and hurricanes...etc (Harris, 2012).
An early pioneer of meteorology was Vilhelm Bjerknes, and his son Jacob, who described the lifecycle of the extratropical cyclone and shared his ideas for scientific weather forecasting. Bjerknes was disappointed over the unscientific methods of meteorology at the time, which, in contrast was making precise predictions in astronomy and meteorology as he felt, was at a standstill. His goal was to introduce scientific concepts to meteorology. According to Bjerknes, the two main ingredients in weather forecasting was knowledge of the atmosphere and accurate knowledge of the physical laws that govern it. Bjerknes identified: pressu...
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...Went Wrong?.ncep.noaa.gov/nwp50/Presentations. Retrieved February 19, 2012, from www.ncep.noaa.gov/nwp50/Presentation
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. (n.d.). NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. Retrieved February 18, 2012, from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
Vanorsow. (2010, July 17). The Teaching Company User Community: View topic - 23. Prediction and Predictability. The Teaching Company User Community: Index. Retrieved February 18, 2012, from http://teachingcompany.12.forumer.com/viewtopic.php?t=3034
Weather Modeling and Prediction. (2011, May 16). NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. Retrieved February 17, 2012, from http://www.oar.noaa.gov/weather/t_modeling.html
The Weather Research&Forecasting Model Website. (n.d.). The Weather Research&Forecasting Model Website. Retrieved February 18, 2012, from http://wrf-model.org/index.php
After the Haicheng earthquake forecast, the area essentially would feel more optimistic on the forecasts of earthquakes. The following year in July 28, 1976 a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck the city of Tangshan and caused as estimated 250,000 fatalities and 164,000 injured, without a warning or forecast. As you can see the con in the situation I just described would be the fact that one good forecast created an overly optimistic population in regarding to forecasting earthquakes.
With few exceptions today’s weather tracking technology is only continuing to evolve. The use of satellites allows for accurate readings and predictions of upcoming weather events. These findings in conjunction with such inventions as the Marine VHF radio which can send for help at a maximum range of 60 nautical miles help warn the crew of impending doom before the storm hits. Though many ships have been destroyed by storms in the past, today’s technology is humanity 's solution against the relentless forces of
This was very evident last week. The weather report was calling for overnight temperatures to be in the low twenties accompanied by rain. The low temperatures and rain were going to become a big headache for the Texas Department of Public Safety, otherwise known as DPS. Many of our highways are elevat...
When passing through the northeastern United States tropical cyclones are restructured by the course of extratropical transition. This is caused by the contact with strong westerlies that are associated with a mid latitude trough and causes an enhance in storm forward motion, vertical wind shear, and vorticity. An increase in storm forward motion also plays a role in the wind speed that is produced by the hurricane. Where the circulating winds and the entire storm is moving in a matching direction, the wind speed is amplified by the forward movement of the storm. In the Northern Hemisphere, the right part of a hurricane, looking in the way of the path in which it is moving forward, has the greater wind speeds and thus is the more dangerous part of the storm. Strong vertical wind shear within the troposphere also reduces tropical cyclone development. This makes the e...
After falling behind in classes with grades in previous semesters, I plan to start early and not slack off and think I have time. Before I tell you how this will be accomplished I will tell you why I am taking Meteorology 206. I am taking this class first and foremost because it fulfills my science requirement. However, I chose Meteorology 206 because I have always been interested in the weather and how it works. The first step for my success will be to take my own notes in class because it helps me to remember the information more. I will then take these notes outside of class to use to study for exams and for assignments. Also outside of class to prepare for class I will read the upcoming chapter. This will not only help for class but will
Denissen, J. A., Butalid, L., Penke, L., & van Aken, M. G. (2008). The effects of weather on
Ever wonder what the atmosphere consists of? What's it made out of, what type of weather patterns are there, what does a hurricane look like, or other natural phenomenon's of today's weather ? Well America, hopefully now we can! Meteorology is the study of the atmosphere and the effects it has on our weather. Climatology focuses on how atmospheric changes alter the world’s climates, aeronomy is the study of the upper parts of the atmosphere. Meteorology focuses on the lower parts of the atmosphere, primarily the troposphere, where most weather takes place. It has been released that under the supervision of NASA, President Dwight D Eisenhower and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) that they have launched a satellite called TIROS 1 out of Cape Canaveral, Florida that will observe, record, and transmit data back to headquarters. The first ever weather satellite has arrived and with much hope will change weather prediction for the future.
Climate, weather, and meteorology are 3 words that seem to be the same but in reality differ significantly. Two of these concepts pertain to the atmosphere but differ in what time and place they are studied in, and the last one is studying these concepts.
Members of the group Weather Report went on to lead their own individual bands. Joe Zawinul's bands tried to encapsulate Weather Report while the groups lead by Wayne Shorter and Miroslav Vitous reflected a more conventional methodology. Later band members, for example, bassist Alphonso Johnson, drummer Alex Acuna, whose gathering Koinonia got extremely prevalent on the west coast, and bassist Jaco Pastorious additionally toured and recorded with their groups. Most striking were Jaco Pastorious' tasks, which offered his fundamentally creative bass playing in enormous band or smaller Caribbean touched settings.
Use forecasting tools to prepare accurate forecasts for CMO and measure forecast accuracy every three months.
...xpected weather conditions over time, previous weather conditions, possible areas of less deteriorating weather conditions, expected duration of bad weather condition.
Stevens, William K. 1999. The Change In The Weather: People, Weather and the Science of Climate. New York, New York. Delecorte Press.
The weather forecasters use probability and statistics just as much if not more than any other field on earth. As weather patterns are not fully understood and are dynamic, analysts have to rely heavily on past weather systems and patterns to “guess'; or estimate the possibility of present weather systems to behave in similar manners. If the probability of its behavior, subject to certain factors, in one manner over another is high forecasters make decisions as to how to advise the public.
Weather Delays. We seem to have heard so much more about them in recent years. Is the weather