Technical Analysis Theory

717 Words2 Pages

Right from the inception of civilization, it has been a matter of great concern & controversy as far as the ideal valuation is concerned. The present study is to investigate the technical approach to the valuation of equities across the leading stock markets worldwide, including both emerging and developed markets. The increase in the number of analysts, and the tremendous improvement in analytical techniques, is familiar phenomena to every investor in the stock market. With a growing number of professionals seeking to find new ways of improving investment performance, it is, therefore, hardly surprising that, in the past few years, an ever-increasing number of analysts have turned their attention to technical analysis. It was barely a decade ago that the average portfolio manager, if he was aware of technical analysis at all, regarded it as some sort of black magic. Today, almost all professionals have at least a familiarity with the terminology and a good many make such analysis a major part of their decision-making process. Two factors lead to the conclusion that major improvements in the art are just over the horizon. The first factor is the growing number of professionals applying their time and efforts to the analysis of stock prices. The second is high computing power. The steps taken in this direction so far have been somewhat less than helpful. A good deal of academic effort has gone into the mathematical analysis of stock prices over the past decade, some of it outlined by Nicholas Molodovsky in his excellent article in a famous journal JSTOR. Much of this effort attempts to prove that stock prices are essentially a random phenomenon and that attempts to predict from them are almost pointless. The analytical profession, ... ... middle of paper ... ...trends could be used to determine whether the major trend was up or down. Thus, under the Dow Theory, each new high in the averages would be noted. If, after a high, the averages reacted, rallied to a point below the old high and then posted a new low under the previous reaction low, this would constitute evidence that an upward trend had come to an end and a downward trend had begun. Obviously, there are further complications, including the fact that both the industrial and rail averages are used, and confirmation of one by the other is required. But the above is a basic summary of theory. Due to differing use of this theory by various practitioners, it is difficult to devise an effective record of its performance over a period of time. Most users would agree, however, that its ability to call major turning points in the market, e.g., 1929, has been extremely good.

Open Document