Update for Recent development in Chinese Yuan
1. The expectation or speculation about a Chinese Yuan revaluation started from the beginning of 2003.
2. Why we say 2003? Because the Non-deliverable forward of USD against Chinese Yuan started to fall into discount from premium at the beginning of 2003.
3. Non-deliverable forward is a type of derivative in the foreign exchange market where by the home currency is not delivered (or settled, transferred) at maturity, instead the difference of market rate against the contract rate is settled with a reference currency (usually USD).
4. China has a very restricted money market and therefore commercial loans are not readily accessible in short tenor such as overnight or 1 week, the most common interest rate benchmark in China is a 1-year bank lending rate, which currently stands at 5.31%, if we compare the Chinese interest rate with the US rate of the same tenor (1 Year US rate is approximately 2.35%), in foreign exchange market, assumed that Chinese Yuan is convertible, the USD should be at a premium against the Chinese Yuan. In the non-deliverable market, however, the USD is trading at a discount against Chinese Yuan after January 2003, which obviously is not logical from an interest arbitrage point of view. The reason is that the assumption that Chinese Yuan is freely convertible is void, the USD discount ( for instance 1-year non-deliverable forward discount of USD is 2400 pips or 0.24 Yuan) is an implied expectation of Chinese Yuan revaluation in one year’s time as perceived by the market.
5. The expectation that Chinese Yuan would appreciate and happen in foreseeable future was advocated by major US Investment Bank such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. International organizations such as IMF started to talk more about the issue ever since 2 years ago. In the recent years, there was a very fast expansion of Chinese export into the United State. The most recent number of US July trade deficit announced last Friday was $50.1 billion, though lower than the June historical record of $55.8, still formed as a threat for financing of these huge deficit through capital account surplus by the US. Furthermore, the July US trade deficit with China set another monthly record at $14.9 billion as imports increased 3.7% from June and exports fell 2.6%. US manufacturers and politician still blamed China’s policy of pegging its currency against the US dollar for the soaring bilateral deficit.
of silver. Written originally as an essay about the changing time of China, document 5 describes
When we look at just a few of the specifics of our trade with the U.S., we find that:
China has come a very long way in the past 25 years. China has grown at nearly 10 percent a year over the past 20 years. China's explosion on to the world investment, production and trade scene is the product of its size, growth and openness. This is leading to tremendous changes in the global economy.
1. What is the business reason for China Noah’s potential currency exposure? Does the company need to subject itself to substantial exchange rate risk? Is the risk “material” to China Noah? Do you think China Noah should hedge?
Xingzhong, LI Daokui David YIN. "The International Monetary System in the Era of Post-Financial Crisis: What Policy Options Does China Have?[J]." Journal of Financial Research 2 (2010): 005
...erally felt united in the common cause of building up China (Fairbank and Goldman 369).Fully 8 years were wasted in terms of economic growth and the cost of opportunity loss was enormous. Considering that this setback occurred when other Asian countries were taking off economically(Chan3).
From the 1970s, there has been a wave of liberalization in China, which was introduced by Deng Xiaoping. This is one of the key reasons to the rise of China to be one of the economic giants in the world. In the last 25 years of the century, the Chinese economy has had massive economic growth, which has been 9.5 percent on a yearly basis. This has been of great significance of the country since it quadrupled the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country thus leading to saving of 400 million of their citizens from the threats of poverty. In the late 1970s, China was ranked twentieth in terms of trade volumes in the whole world as well as being predicted to be the world’s top nation concerning trading activities (Kaplan, 53). This further predicted the country to record the highest GDP growth in the whole world.
The United States and China share the most imbalanced bilateral trade relationship in the world. The United States imports more goods from China than it exports to a tune of $202 billion dollars each year. All told, China alone accounts for nearly 26% of the United States' $725.8 billion trade deficit. “Increasingly, this imbalance has been the subject of a major political backlash within the U.S. congress, where some have charged that the US is destroying its industrial base to support a communist country's industrialization." http://worldnews.about.com/od/china/a/china_trade.htm
In November of 2004, the United States ran a fifty-four billion dollar trade deficit, translating to over 600 billion for the entire year. This deficit is a result of the disparity between the amount of goods that the US imports and the amount it exports. To equalize this deficit in its current account, the American government sells assets from its capital account, often to foreign investors. This phenomenon is seen as a serious threat to the success and continued growth of the nation’s economy, tied in with popular concerns that the United States is losing its competitive and dominant edge in global economics. The traditional economic theory employed to solve this problem calls for a return to mercantile protectionism, through use of tariffs and subsidies to drive up the price of imports and lower the price of exports. Running contrary to this is a second option: increasing domestic savings and lowering government spending. These theories both aim to decrease American dependence upon foreign imports and investment, and ultimately equalize the enormous trade deficit that currently exists.
For over a decade, China’s economy has experienced some dynamic changes, especially with the transformation of their labor market. China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 was a significant event because it symbolized to the global community their country was a competitive trading par...
China's development is praised by the whole world. Its developments are not only in the economic aspect, but also in its foreign affairs. Compared to other developed countries, China is a relatively young country. It began constructing itself in 1949. After 30 years of growth, company ownership has experienced unprecedented changes.
The leading model, Monetary Model links exchange rate movements to the balance of payment, which is used for medium to long term analysis. The following assumptions cons...
According to The Star Online, up to 80% of the total group borrowings of RM7.49 billion were denominated in US dollar. Simultaneously, 8% of the total group borrowings were denominated in Euro currency. In other words, the total debt of the group that denominated in US currency worth at US$1.33 billion, approximately cost at RM5.91 billion. The total debt that denominated in Euro currency cost around €129.8 million, approximately cost at RM610.61 million. The high composition of debt in foreign currency caused the group extremely vulnerable to foreign exchange risk. A sensitivity analysis conducted by CIMB Research revealed that IOI could face RM148 million of loss or gain for foreign exchange translation risk with every RM0.10 rise/drop in Ringgit to US dollar exchange rate. Due to substantial losses on foreign exchange translation and fair value loss on derivative loss, the company predicted that the second quarter net profit of 2017 will be dropped by 98% to RM15.6 million, compared to the first quarter net profit recorded at RM703.7 million (Kok, 2017). Thus, foreign exchange risk is considered as high risk for
The rise in China from a poor, stagnant country to a major economic power within a time span of twenty-eight years is often described by analysts as one of the greatest success stories in these present times. With China receiving an increase in the amount of trade business from many countries around the world, they may soon be a major competitor to surpass the U.S. China became the second largest economy, last year, overtaking Japan which had held that position since 1968 (Gallup). China could become the world’s largest economy in decades.
Interest Rate Parity Theory - Linking interest rates and spot rates and forward foreign exchange rates